Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs. Hopefully this is not becoming a lose lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs. Check out the 1000-500mb thicknesses bending back towards the coast on the northeast side of the upper level low. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that theres a warm layer in there somewhere that would cause this to be rain for most of us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 And, with the decaying ULL, this storm will not have an easy time making its own cold air. I think our paths to a significant snow/winter storm have narrowed dramatically in the past several model run cycles. WX/PT Strongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the A O is forcast to tank but the nao is forecast to slowy rise...An AO with a -4.000 is a strong block and it's forecast to be near that..it's a good sign for a snowstorm or cold wave when this happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We need a storm like 2001. The temps were marginal but the storm bombed out to give the area a couple of inches of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs. I agree. On the GGEM the 850mb temps are cold. But the 1000-500mb thickness are high, Especially for what you want to see in March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We need a storm like 2001. The temps were marginal but the storm bombed out to give the area a couple of inches of snow . We've even picked up 5" of snow in April with temps around 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Check out the 1000-500mb thicknesses bending back towards the coast on the northeast side of the upper level low. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that theres a warm layer in there somewhere that would cause this to be rain for most of us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f126.gif I don't know, John, 850mb temperatures look to support snow. Sure it's a high thicknesses snow, with the thicknesses being higher due to the fact that it's March and the BL warms before the storm with marginal 850s, but it's definitely pretty cold at 850. There looks to be a nice comma head forming on the GGEM so you definitely have some dynamics at work. That's colder than I imagined given what you said. As usual, could be a sharp gradient between Southern Brooklyn and Northern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. On the GGEM the 850mb temps are cold. But the 1000-500mb thickness are high, Especially for what you want to see in March: 12zGGEMf132.gif I think it's just east winds raising thicknesses. Modest BL warming due to the long-duration east fetch. That would flash to snow under heavy returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't know, John, 850mb temperatures look to support snow. Sure it's a high thicknesses snow, with the thicknesses being higher due to the fact that it's March and the BL warms before the storm with marginal 850s, but it's definitely pretty cold at 850. There looks to be a nice comma head forming on the GGEM so you definitely have some dynamics at work. That's colder than I imagined given what you said. As usual, could be a sharp gradient between Southern Brooklyn and Northern Westchester. The dynamics aren't as good as you might believe. There's a lot of moisture but the best dynamics are dead already. The mid level centers closed off over the Arklatex. So the best lift and forcing is decaying. As expected the meteograms show 100% rain for NYC despite the big comma head which is only forming as a result of track of the upper level low. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYork.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The dynamics aren't as good as you might believe. There's a lot of moisture but the best dynamics are dead already. The mid level centers closed off over the Arklatex. So the best lift and forcing is decaying. As expected the meteograms show 100% rain for NYC despite the big comma head which is only forming as a result of track of the upper level low. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYork.png Look at the temp meteograms. The surface is 2-3c, which would make any model show as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As far as the Canadian goes, I see a a 1039mb high to our north and a very strong low pressure to our south, 850 temps at -4 and surface temps in the mid 30's. I have no idea how that could possibly be rain. I guess it could be, but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As far as the Canadian goes, I see a a 1039mb high to our north and a very strong low pressure to our south, 850 temps at -4 and surface temps in the mid 30's. I have no idea how that could possibly be rain. I guess it could be, but yeah. The meteograms are snow accumulated. No model will show snow accumulating at 35-36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Need more northern stream interaction. Not going to get snow with decaying dynamics in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As far as the Canadian goes, I see a a 1039mb high to our north and a very strong low pressure to our south, 850 temps at -4 and surface temps in the mid 30's. I have no idea how that could possibly be rain. I guess it could be, but yeah. Low position generating E to SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think it's just east winds raising thicknesses. Modest BL warming due to the long-duration east fetch. That would flash to snow under heavy returns. Yes, but you have to be concerned that the CAA and dynamic cooling may not be there, to support significant accumulating snow. Especially for the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Low position generating E to SE winds. The winds are coming out of the ENE to NE on the Canadian. I have it in high resolution on Wright Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes, but you have to be concerned that the CAA and dynamic cooling may not be there, to support significant accumulating snow. Especially for the lower elevations. I'd be concerned if I lived near JFK, or even for where I work in Brooklyn. But well north/northwest of the city in the hills where I live, that's probably a heavy wet snow depicted on the GGEM. Surface temps are warming because of east winds, but there's still sub 0C 850s with heavy precipitation, which is all that you need to snow here in the suburbs. I think the high thicknesses are the result of the boundary layer winds coming off the ocean, nothing more. Yes, we'd like the storm to close off later and closer to us, but that might not be possible. The 12z GGEM shows a good compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's not snow locally....looks good for the Cats and Berks, however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'd be concerned if I lived near JFK, or even for where I work in Brooklyn. But well north/northwest of the city in the hills where I live, that's probably a heavy wet snow depicted on the GGEM. Surface temps are warming because of east winds, but there's still sub 0C 850s with heavy precipitation, which is all that you need to snow here in the suburbs. I think the high thicknesses are the result of the boundary layer winds coming off the ocean, nothing more. Yes, we'd like the storm to close off later and closer to us, but that might not be possible. The 12z GGEM shows a good compromise. You live in a delusional world.. Since when is southern Westchester well nw of the city in the hills? smh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GGEM looks rainy for the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GGEM looks rainy for the coast.. zucker doesnt live on the coast though. its all snow with his elevation and how far tucked away he is in the NW hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro disposes of the confluence over NE Maine much much faster than the GFS through 96 hours....might be some improvement this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro disposes of the confluence over NE Maine much much faster than the GFS through 96 hours....might be some improvement this run its also slower with the ull as it closes off in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hr 114 preciep up to Ttn. Further north then last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 its also slower with the ull as it closes off in the midwest. That piece of northern stream energy the GFS tried to dive into the trough is also lagging way behind.....I'll take the confluence issue going away as a minor victory at this point. There is time....not much, but some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That piece of northern stream energy the GFS tried to dive into the trough is also lagging way behind.....I'll take the confluence issue going away as a minor victory at this point. There is time....not much, but some.... agree. one trend ive noticed with the euro past couple cycles is that it keeps slowing the wave/ull down as it heads through the plains. im not an expert to know if this will have any major impact at all...but if that means the confluence has more time to fade away while also allowing the northern stream to catch up, then we do have more time now. at least another two days of runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still heads due east OTS. it and the gfs are in fairly good agreement right now, which is concerning and odd at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 do you live in Monroe or Middletown? I have a house in the Poconos but Westchester seems far northwest of JFK area where I work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 agree. one trend ive noticed with the euro past couple cycles is that it keeps slowing the wave/ull down as it heads through the plains. im not an expert to know if this will have any major impact at all...but if that means the confluence has more time to fade away while also allowing the northern stream to catch up, then we do have more time now. at least another two days of runs lol. Just run the GFS/Euro/GEM on Ewall and you can see the major differences.....I'm sure Earthlight will elaborate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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