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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again.

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Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again.

 

This is really a shame because this MIGHT be the last major threat of the season. Models seem to build a ridge after this storm in the East, and that brings us out to near March 15th, when the coast's chance for snow starts to decrease substantially. 

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Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again.

 

Looking at the differences, between the 12z and 0z GFS., It doesn't take much change with amplification over Midwest ridge or timing with lthe ast s/w rotating around the ULL, for this come further north:

 

 

12z GFS

post-187-0-14347700-1362240792_thumb.gif

 

 

0z GFS

post-187-0-48435900-1362240979_thumb.gif

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I have a hard time believing the low at 84 hours over Louisville , gets shunted SE into Central South Carloina at hour 90 only to head NE towards HSE at hr 96.

Instead at hour 90 that center should be East over Roanoke , and there`s you`re potential error in terms of where the GFS shunts this before hitting DC and its suburbs .

I`m not saying it cant happen and to some degree the 0z Euro felt the confluence , but that  hour period just caught my eye .

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I have a hard time believing the low at 84 hours over Louisville , gets shunted SE into Central South Carloina at hour 90 only to head NE towards HSE at hr 96.

 

You shouldn't, look at the mid and upper level flow. I'm not insinuating that this will be the eventual outcome, but on the GFS it appears perfectly correct.

 

post-6-0-66396300-1362242647_thumb.png

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You shouldn't, look at the mid and upper level flow. I'm not insinuating that this will be the eventual outcome, but on the GFS it appears perfectly correct.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_march2.png

 

With the system just coming onto the west coast , I would really like to see tomrrows 12z Euro before im  certian where the northern extent of the heavy precip gets too .

I was really looking at the surface feature , I wasnt liking Lousiville to Spartanberg but Louisville to Roanoke at hr 90 .

The confluence over NE is between he 78 - 84 , if its 6 hrs faster in its displacement this spins north .

Yeh , Maybe the GFS is right. But I can see how the models could wiggle a Block 150 miles  either side in its orientation from  a 4 days away solution   .

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Though model trends are not really exciting for our area, I can't help but like where we are at this point. Some models coming in north now, though a bit warm. And some too far south l. My guess at this point would be a rain/snow mix but still a sloppy 3-6" for our area

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just because you see a little L on the map in TN valley doesnt mean its heading towards the benchmark. the flow is E on the euro and gfs. SE canada is positioned in such a way that once it cuts off, it just meanders E and even ESE. it cant gain latitude. it can happen, systems dont always turn the corner just because we want it to or because climo is against it. although small changes in the euro and gfs orientation of SE canada/New England can make huge differences...so this one is far from over.

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Though model trends are not really exciting for our area, I can't help but like where we are at this point. Some models coming in north now, though a bit warm. And some too far south l. My guess at this point would be a rain/snow mix but still a sloppy 3-6" for our area

3-6"?? How are you going to get the temperature to drop below freezing or even get down to 33? It's not going to be easy. No arctic air in the picture and if we're on the nw edge of the system, dynamics are not going to be that good. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, it's just going to be difficult for it to happen.

WX/PT

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Rain to a paste job on Ggem for NYC

 

I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs.

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3-6"?? How are you going to get the temperature to drop below freezing or even get down to 33? It's not going to be easy. No arctic air in the picture and if we're on the nw edge of the system, dynamics are not going to be th

at good. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, it's just going to be difficult for it to happen.

WX/PT

It will surely be possible if dynamics comes into play. We need a fairly robust system up here to drop the temps. Is it possible? Sure . Anything is possible at this point. Even though the GGEM is kind of warm, it's good to see it north.

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I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs.

And, with the decaying ULL, this storm will not have an easy time making its own cold air. I think our paths to a significant snow/winter storm have narrowed dramatically in the past several model run cycles.

WX/PT

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