Metsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 here is the link http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06084.gif NAM is the northern outlier taken as is. Also it's out of it's reliable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Coming North. Position of the block looks more favorable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At HR 75 ULl is way further east than 6z at 81. Edit: positioned more favorably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure if the ULL will get out the way fast enough on the GFS. One thing to watch is that Pacific low/trough is coming into West Coast faster, is actually helping to pump a stronger ridge over Northern Rockies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The problem is that the closed low does not open up and phase with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks well north of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The block is still too much oriented to the west this run. So the confluence stays close to the coast, and the heights don't rise much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It needs to pick up the northern stream around 90 hours to come further north. Wallops VA on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again. This is really a shame because this MIGHT be the last major threat of the season. Models seem to build a ridge after this storm in the East, and that brings us out to near March 15th, when the coast's chance for snow starts to decrease substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Our potential to get this north is becoming much more limited with each model run. The GFS now has the confluent flow over New England through 78-84 hours, a small window for the storm to amplify around 84-96, and then it gets shunted southeast again as the block and northern stream begins to press on the flow again. Looking at the differences, between the 12z and 0z GFS., It doesn't take much change with amplification over Midwest ridge or timing with lthe ast s/w rotating around the ULL, for this come further north: 12z GFS 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have a hard time believing the low at 84 hours over Louisville , gets shunted SE into Central South Carloina at hour 90 only to head NE towards HSE at hr 96. Instead at hour 90 that center should be East over Roanoke , and there`s you`re potential error in terms of where the GFS shunts this before hitting DC and its suburbs . I`m not saying it cant happen and to some degree the 0z Euro felt the confluence , but that hour period just caught my eye . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Seems to still be a chance for this to head north but for the most part this storm has only been shown as a very nice hit on the models for a couple runs. For the most part it has been south anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have a hard time believing the low at 84 hours over Louisville , gets shunted SE into Central South Carloina at hour 90 only to head NE towards HSE at hr 96. You shouldn't, look at the mid and upper level flow. I'm not insinuating that this will be the eventual outcome, but on the GFS it appears perfectly correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM is well north . Alot of precip in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Canadian is north, looks like plenty of precipitation. But thermal profiles remain too warm for most areas through 120 hours. Hard to tell after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM is well north . Alot of precip in NYC. Very good sign. Lets see if we can't get some good trends in here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Rain to a paste job on Ggem for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Rain to a paste job on Ggem for NYC Over an inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You shouldn't, look at the mid and upper level flow. I'm not insinuating that this will be the eventual outcome, but on the GFS it appears perfectly correct. gfs_march2.png With the system just coming onto the west coast , I would really like to see tomrrows 12z Euro before im certian where the northern extent of the heavy precip gets too . I was really looking at the surface feature , I wasnt liking Lousiville to Spartanberg but Louisville to Roanoke at hr 90 . The confluence over NE is between he 78 - 84 , if its 6 hrs faster in its displacement this spins north . Yeh , Maybe the GFS is right. But I can see how the models could wiggle a Block 150 miles either side in its orientation from a 4 days away solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z gefs mean has around .25 for our area. North of the op. Sharp cutoff from here to SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z gefs mean has around .25 for our area. North of the op. Sharp cutoff from here to SNJ. Is that a N or S shift from the 0z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Is that a N or S shift from the 0z GEFS? South shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Though model trends are not really exciting for our area, I can't help but like where we are at this point. Some models coming in north now, though a bit warm. And some too far south l. My guess at this point would be a rain/snow mix but still a sloppy 3-6" for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 just because you see a little L on the map in TN valley doesnt mean its heading towards the benchmark. the flow is E on the euro and gfs. SE canada is positioned in such a way that once it cuts off, it just meanders E and even ESE. it cant gain latitude. it can happen, systems dont always turn the corner just because we want it to or because climo is against it. although small changes in the euro and gfs orientation of SE canada/New England can make huge differences...so this one is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Verbatim I think the GGEM would be rain for the coast throughout, it's not very cold initially and as the mid and upper level lows cutoff the airmass pretty much rots anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Though model trends are not really exciting for our area, I can't help but like where we are at this point. Some models coming in north now, though a bit warm. And some too far south l. My guess at this point would be a rain/snow mix but still a sloppy 3-6" for our area 3-6"?? How are you going to get the temperature to drop below freezing or even get down to 33? It's not going to be easy. No arctic air in the picture and if we're on the nw edge of the system, dynamics are not going to be that good. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, it's just going to be difficult for it to happen. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Rain to a paste job on Ggem for NYC I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 3-6"?? How are you going to get the temperature to drop below freezing or even get down to 33? It's not going to be easy. No arctic air in the picture and if we're on the nw edge of the system, dynamics are not going to be th at good. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, it's just going to be difficult for it to happen. WX/PT It will surely be possible if dynamics comes into play. We need a fairly robust system up here to drop the temps. Is it possible? Sure . Anything is possible at this point. Even though the GGEM is kind of warm, it's good to see it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think this is less of a paste job potential than people think if the upper level low tracks like the models are showing. Yes there is heavy precipitation right before the upper level low occludes but we aren't sitting directly in a classic CCB with the best lift and dynamics for dynamic cooling. Given the borderline thermal profiles as it is...and the decaying upper level low...one could actually be inclined to believe that the mid/low levels could warm as that occurs. And, with the decaying ULL, this storm will not have an easy time making its own cold air. I think our paths to a significant snow/winter storm have narrowed dramatically in the past several model run cycles. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.