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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Models will be all over the place until the energy moves inland at least. I mean just look at the massive changes run to run on the gfs for example, crazy. 

 

The thing is though its not the energy coming in from the west coast thats the problem, its the northern stream in canada. 

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Looks like phase is off the table, now we just need more latitude as it goes across the states. Still possible, 00z NAM looked good in that regard. 

 

 

Why is it off the Table cause the inconsistent GFS says so 5 days out ? I am not writing nothing off until Monday at earliest especially when numerous models and model runs have shown some sort of phase past couple days.

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Looks like phase is off the table, now we just need more latitude as it goes across the states. Still possible, 00z NAM looked good in that regard.

 

12z gfs showed us what would happen.... its a snow to rain scenario. therefore we need some northern stream interaction.

 

Bingo, makes me puke that the models had to give us a glimpse of what a full phase could do...

 

a phase would be a snow weenies dream if the block is orientated favorably. did you see last nights euro?

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TBH, besides the lack of the northern stream whatsoever, at least the storm is a little slower on the 0z which if true can give a little more time to have the energy phase in (hopefully the models bring it back). Plus, the confluence is further east which helps. Realistically though, without that energy in canada our odds of getting this storm to come north diminish greatly. 

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What a crappy model!  Is there any support for this new horrid development of the missing northern stream energy which is what turns the trough negative on the Euro and other models?

has nay model been the same? the euro shifted every run for 2 days

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I agree. Climo alone point against this being a major snowstorm for NC/VA. I think everyone will win in the end.

 

Good, I have no worries about how the models are handling this right now. By Monday 0z I would start to worry if the solution was the same as now.

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Still a lot of time to work this out, so no one should toaster bath yet. But like people have been saying, the coast absolutely does not want or need the slow, closed off low solution that can pound waves and surge in for 1-2 days. Hopefully if that does happen it closes off well offshore so that we can all have NE or N winds at least, and cold air for snow. A long duration storm with E winds gusting to 60mph+ could be very damaging to communities hit hard by Sandy, regardless of the moon phase.

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Time is running out on this . We are now down to 5 days or 120 hours and virtually all guidance tonight from the NAVGEM to the ECM is in agreement with this being south and east. The guidance certainly has not trended good since 12 Z runs earlier in the afternoon 

:lmao:

 

24 hours out from the 2/8 storm, in a situation just about as complex as this, models had immediate NYC as ranging from a sloppy mix to 2+ feet of snow. I wouldn't get hung up on a solution until the end of the weekend if not Monday. TONS of time left on this.

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:lmao:

 

24 hours out from the 2/8 storm, in a situation just about as complex as this, models had immediate NYC as ranging from a sloppy mix to 2+ feet of snow. I wouldn't get hung up on a solution until the end of the weekend if not Monday. TONS of time left on this.

Exactly, the storm a few weeks ago shifted 200 miles south 18 hours out

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