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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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I will take every Model Run with a Grain of Salt until Monday. Track and precip type will fluctuate for at least the next 48 hrs. What looks ineviidable is this Storm will develop into a monster. If it keeps Developing like it looks to be(showing 2-3 inches of QPF already) will be interesting once the Nam and other short range guidance come into play I bet there will be some ludicrous precip totals 24-48 hrs prior to the start of the event. 

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man, the consistency of the GFS run to run is amazing. LOL...

In reality..none of the models have been really consistent. The 0z Euro from this morning made a 500 mile jump to the north (hardly consistent) With that said there seems to be agreement between the 12z Euro, Euro Ensembles, and GFS Ensembles that this storm will be a glancing blow to our area. Plenty of time for things to change though, a small change in the upper air pattern and this storm comes north once again.

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We are still 5-6 days out so this is to be expected and right now I actually want to see it south and east because the trend this winter has been north and west as the storm approaches. We have seen some of the models move storms hundreds of miles 24 hours out so at 130 it should be normal.

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. This is because the phase happens too late and the trough does not go negative in time

Well yea obviously, my point is the best scenario is a phase in-between 12 and 18z. That would put the storm about 150 miles WNW and we should get creamed. Also the cold air is slightly less stale this run before the storm.

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The 18z NAVGEM just came north.  Honestly, this model has been leading the way so far.  The Euro has followed every move it has made so far.  Below are the previous run at 150 and 156 hrs and the new run at 144 and 150 hrs. for comparison purposes.  And by the way, this looks very similar to the Euro control run with the precip shield.

post-1914-0-87470800-1362178605_thumb.gi

post-1914-0-18008800-1362178617_thumb.gi

post-1914-0-04903800-1362179810_thumb.gi

post-1914-0-85904000-1362179815_thumb.gi

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Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run.  Not even in the same ball park.  Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA.  It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south.  Wow.  WAY different than the operational run.  .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island.

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Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run.  Not even in the same ball park.  Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA.  It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south.  Wow.  WAY different than the operational run.  .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island.

.75 is close to the south shore of the area

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72156.gif

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Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run.  Not even in the same ball park.  Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA.  It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south.  Wow.  WAY different than the operational run.  .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island.

 

In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days.

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In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days.

 

Yeah, about half of the individual members are really nice hits, and about half are misses. 

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The 18z NAVGEM just came north.  Honestly, this model has been leading the way so far.  The Euro has followed every move it has made so far.  Below are the previous run at 150 and 156 hrs and the new run at 144 and 150 hrs. for comparison purposes.  And by the way, this looks very similar to the Euro control run with the precip shield.

 

Can I get a link for this model

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In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days.

 

The key here though, is that despite the 18z Operational being considerably southeast of the 12z run, the 18z GEFS are considerably NW of the Operational, and the 12z GEFS, which was SE of the 12z Operational. The GEFS shifting quite a bit NW is a pretty big red flag for the southern operational solution.

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