NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12 Z Euro Ensembles - has 6th - 7th storm closer to the coast and precip reaches NYC Metrohttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GEFS is more north than the ophttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 18z NAVGEM still brings this thing so far north that it is rain for us. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ^^^ It looks like the low cuts off just south of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 18z GEFS members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html Some are close to the coast. This meteorologist on another forum was just talking about the Euro ensembles and he was saying how about 34 of them are well north of the operational model. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I strongly doubt the storm will be as far south as the gfs depicts even with the strong block, they always end up further north unless it's a true cutoff low,which I'm not sold on. I actually agree with Henry M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 anyone notice the strength of the hP in Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 anyone notice the strength of the hP in Greenland? Is that over 1090? Holy crap, record breaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah its amazing. All the way up to 1068mbs Edit Way up to 1075 on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 A high pressure system that high vs a bombing low would yield a ridiculous pressure gradient which would probably produce winds that would rival Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Low pressure systems seldom track due east from South Carolina during March, so I am inclined to believe the Euro ensembles are more correct with the further north track. yeah, if you look back to the Marches of recent years past, we had to deal with a good amount of cut-off lows-- even if they were too warm for snow, a cut-off low that stalled all the way in the south seldom happened. Usually they hit our region pretty good with heavy rains and strong winds. One could argue that the strong blocking is a problem --- but it's going to be March and not Jan/Feb where a block of the projected magnitude would undoubtedly suppress storms to our south -- less likely to happen in this situation. My hunch is that by the middle of next week where the rain/snow line sets up is going to be a bigger concern than whether the low is going to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This might be a bit premature, but the GFS already has improved. There is much more energy in Canada this run than the 18z run, and there is a large closed off 534 dam contour as well. This is through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 alot more resistance between the block and the shortwave..Good changes so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Okay, now I KNOW it's not premature. Huge improvements so far. Of course, the GFS was very far away from a snowstorm for us to begin with, but this is a start. 00z at 63 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_063_500_vort_ht.gif 18z at 69 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_069_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Okay, now I KNOW it's not premature. Huge improvements so far. Of course, the GFS was very far away from a snowstorm for us to begin with, but this is a start. 00z at 63 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif 18z at 69 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Offshore confluence is much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Offshore confluence is much weaker. Yes, that is true. But look at south Central Canada. The northern stream is much more defined and organized, and is actually creating resistance between our shortwave and the block. This helps because it can delay any interaction between the Midwest ridging down the road and the block. Plus, this increases our odds of some significant phase. Of course, as has been discussed before: a phase is pretty much a requirement, but it does NOT guarantee a good solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At 93 hours, we can see that the lobe of vorticity is now in the Great Lakes and looks ready to phase with our shortwave. Hopefully it actually does. Additionally, the block is more oriented to the east, as well. This helps the confluence move out of the way faster, and HOPEFULLY, we can get the block to link up with the SE ridging out ahead of our shortwave, instead of the Midwest ridging behind it. That will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GFS has jumped pretty markedly towards the Euro handling of the northern stream. It doesn't look overly eager to phase the two features, but it's definitely jumped in that direction. The flow still looks too flat and fast to bring this very far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm not sure this run will pull it off, since it's not really rushing to dive the northern stream energy southward. However, I was certainly not expecting it to improve as much as it did. Good signs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks much further north than the earlier runs, BYW you do not want it phasing too early or it would be just a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GFS looks like the 12z ECMWF from Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GFS looks like the 12z ECMWF from Wed. I was just thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The block is hooking up with the ridging out ahead of the storm, which is important. It might try and do a last minute capture, but I'm still not sure about this actually significantly impacting our region. Either way, great signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Think about this: we've essentially replaced the confluence that was right offshore with the block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Noticed that an omega block is forming, if it phases a little earlier it would be historic. Timing would have to be just right so the odds at this time seem low, but what a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the differences at h5 earlier on between the 0z and 12z run are ridiculous - in regards to handling of the northern stream features:12z 120 hrs: 0z 108 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think if the northern stream dived in a bit sooner, this would have been closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the differences at h5 earlier on between the 0z and 12z run are ridiculous - in regards to handling of the northern stream features: 12z 120 hrs: 0z 108 hrs: Yeah, it really is crazy. Too bad the northern stream energy didn't drop down earlier. But that's a MAJOR cave to the Euro with respect to that feature. Additionally, look at how much more favorably the block is oriented, and how much further east the confluence moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It kind of reminds me of a much weaker version of the Ash Wednesday Storm as it cuts off, I believe that was even one of the analogs a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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