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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Low pressure systems seldom track due east from South Carolina during March, so I am inclined to

believe the Euro ensembles are more correct with the further north track.

yeah, if you look back to the Marches of recent years past, we had to deal with a good amount of cut-off lows-- even if they were too warm for snow, a cut-off low that stalled all the way in the south seldom happened. Usually they hit our region pretty good with heavy rains and strong winds. One could argue that the strong blocking is a problem  --- but it's going to be March and not Jan/Feb where a block of the projected magnitude would undoubtedly suppress storms to our south -- less likely to happen in this situation. My hunch is that by the middle of next week where the rain/snow line sets up is going to be a bigger concern than whether the low is going to be suppressed. 

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Okay, now I KNOW it's not premature. Huge improvements so far. Of course, the GFS was very far away from a snowstorm for us to begin with, but this is a start. 

 

 

00z at 63 hours:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_063_500_vort_ht.gif

 

18z at 69 hours:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_069_500_vort_ht.gif

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Okay, now I KNOW it's not premature. Huge improvements so far. Of course, the GFS was very far away from a snowstorm for us to begin with, but this is a start. 

 

 

00z at 63 hours:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif

 

18z at 69 hours:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif

 

Offshore confluence is much weaker.

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Offshore confluence is much weaker.

 

 

Yes, that is true. But look at south Central Canada. The northern stream is much more defined and organized, and is actually creating resistance between our shortwave and the block. This helps because it can delay any interaction between the Midwest ridging down the road and the block. Plus, this increases our odds of some significant phase.

 

Of course, as has been discussed before: a phase is pretty much a requirement, but it does NOT guarantee a good solution for us. 

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At 93 hours, we can see that the lobe of vorticity is now in the Great Lakes and looks ready to phase with our shortwave. Hopefully it actually does. 

 

Additionally, the block is more oriented to the east, as well. This helps the confluence move out of the way faster, and HOPEFULLY, we can get the block to link up with the SE ridging out ahead of our shortwave, instead of the Midwest ridging behind it. That will be key. 

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The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly.

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the differences at h5 earlier on between the 0z and 12z run are ridiculous - in regards to handling of the northern stream features:

12z 120 hrs: f120.gif

 

 

0z 108 hrs:

f108.gif

 

 

Yeah, it really is crazy. Too bad the northern stream energy didn't drop down earlier. But that's a MAJOR cave to the Euro with respect to that feature.

 

Additionally, look at how much more favorably the block is oriented, and how much further east the confluence moved. 

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