Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 That last sentence is awesome. I'm not sure what the deal is lately. The Euro is clearly superior on the whole but the GFS is much better than it used to be and it still 'wins' quite often. I think some of it is a push to try to get more funding to better the GFS but it goes into the absurd realm... Mets with a big audience are poisoning the discussion by clearly not knowing what they are talking about. You see plenty of them still say the 18z runs are crap and that nothing matters if the Euro doesn't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good points Ian. I used to think the euro was the darling can't be wrong model because that's all I heard and I wasn't knowledgeable enough to compare anything. I've seen enough the last 3 years or so. Both the euro and gfs have their strengths and weaknesses. And the gfs is an excellent model. I think they are equals in many respects. It also bugs me every time I hear goofus. Someone who consistently calls the gfs that doesn't know how to read models and use them as the tool they are designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The weenie dream-destroying GFS is leading the way once again this winter, but not before it suckered lots of people in for a 12 hour joyride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good points Ian. I used to think the euro was the darling can't be wrong model because that's all I heard and I wasn't knowledgeable enough to compare anything. I've seen enough the last 3 years or so. Both the euro and gfs have their strengths and weaknesses. And the gfs is an excellent model. I think they are equals in many respects. It also bugs me every time I hear goofus. Someone who consistently calls the gfs that doesn't know how to read models and use them as the tool they are designed for. Well, they aren't equals really and verification bears that out (though the gap isn't nearly as extreme as people make it seem). You are certainly right about people needing to learn how to interpret/use/apply models (instead of expecting deterministic output to verify as-is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love it Rooting against snow? There are certain folks that should be 5-posted or banned if this storm gets more real Dude, I've been saying that for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, they aren't equals really and verification bears that out (though the gap isn't nearly as extreme as people make it seem). You are certainly right about people needing to learn how to interpret/use/apply models (instead of expecting deterministic output to verify as-is). Yea, score wise the euro wins. But as you said, it's closer than many think. Maybe part of the bias is because snow is a movie star of weather events and the euro gets the big ones right sooner and more accurately more often than the gfs. But the gfs usually beats the euro with more subtle events. Especially ns dominant patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Rooting against snow? Dude, I've been saying that for months No. I would love to see snow. It's the reactions to one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No. I would love to see snow. It's the reactions to one run Ah, makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Im rooting against snow in a handful of posters' yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Im rooting against snow in a handful of posters' yards. Let's leave Boston out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's leave Boston out of this I should have been more specific. A handful of ma posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I should have been more specific. A handful of ma posters. I wouldn't mind seeing a little payback for March 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think everybody knows this but just in case...every time I say ma mean mid Atlantic and not mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just watched an hilarious video on youtube made by a Met who posts on FB... he showed every op model run over the last 24 hours (Ukie, EC, GFS, Canadian) and for each model that didn't show a HECS impacting central VA he wrote a "WRONG" with big red ink over the slide. it was 7 minutes of some of the most delusional model-huggin material I think I have ever seen. BTW... the 12z EURO was Right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just watched an hilarious video on youtube made by a Met who posts on FB... he showed every op model run over the last 24 hours (Ukie, EC, GFS, Canadian) and for each model that didn't show a HECS impacting central VA he wrote a "WRONG" with big red ink over the slide. it was 7 minutes of some of the most delusional model-huggin material I think I have ever seen. BTW... the 12z EURO was Right... DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DT Yeah i know... I was just trying to follow suit... every time people make fun of him on here that typically do not mention his name.... You think he reads this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah i know... I was just trying to follow suit... every time people make fun of him on here that typically do not mention his name.... You think he reads this forum? He who must not be named? Voldemort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hey does anyone know where you can get Historical Model data form... I want to look at what the MSLP looked like for the model runs of the GFS approaching some of our historical events... like in 2009-2010... 2003, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 next summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 the main thread sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the main thread sux You have ban powers!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 You have ban powers!!! it's funny that mapgirl called out the banter and im the only one who always comes here to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the main thread sux Its what happens when people dont READ the posts above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 In past years didn't the GFS have a tendency to pick up on storms and then lose them for a few runs? I'm posting this in banter because it's pure weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Fraught with peril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Would be totally proper for a storm we actually started to believe in to hit NC after this winter. The 500 low looks pretty solid but I wonder if we'll end up worrying about sfc temps in the end anyway especially if there is no phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nothing different about this scenario that hasn't been repeated ad naseum this winter. Euro picks up a D7 storm for a few runs then at 5 days the GFS says no way. People look to other models to support the Euro and dissect what the GFS is doing wrong. Then at D4 the Euro caves to the GFS and we're left to chase the next D10 event or pattern change. Except this time the next fantasy land chase is likely to be tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nothing different about this scenario that hasn't been repeated ad naseum this winter. Euro picks up a D7 storm for a few runs then at 5 days the GFS says no way. People look to other models to support the Euro and dissect what the GFS is doing wrong. Then at D4 the Euro caves to the GFS and we're left to chase the next D10 event or pattern change. Except this time the next fantasy land chase is likely to be tornadic. Except that it's a fairly different setup. Even if the "feelings" are similar and the bust potential - it's not like we are in an identical setup to the rest of winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Except that it's a fairly different setup. Even if the "feelings" are similar and the bust potential - it's not like we are in an identical setup to the rest of winter here. true tho most setups around here are tricky and different. sometimes i get the sense that we oversell "uncertainty" in that almost every storm is like that at range. we just didn't used to talk about storms 8 days out nearly as much... perahps because skill has gotten better. it's really the rare storm that is easy to figure out by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I hate when people do this so I'm going to hate myself here...but I'd bet euro comes in not as hot. Perhaps something got sampled better or worse. Maybe I coughed and the model chaos took off with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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