Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,754
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Sasonah
    Newest Member
    Sasonah
    Joined

Rockin' March


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 690
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Just watched an hilarious video on youtube made by a Met who posts on FB... he showed every op model run over the last 24 hours (Ukie, EC, GFS, Canadian) and for each model that didn't show a HECS impacting central VA he wrote a "WRONG" with big red ink over the slide.  it was 7 minutes of some of the most delusional model-huggin material I think I have ever seen.

 

BTW... the 12z EURO was Right...   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just watched an hilarious video on youtube made by a Met who posts on FB... he showed every op model run over the last 24 hours (Ukie, EC, GFS, Canadian) and for each model that didn't show a HECS impacting central VA he wrote a "WRONG" with big red ink over the slide.  it was 7 minutes of some of the most delusional model-huggin material I think I have ever seen.

 

BTW... the 12z EURO was Right...   

DT
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey does anyone know where you can get Historical Model data form... I want to look at what the MSLP looked like for the model runs of the GFS approaching some of our historical events... like in 2009-2010... 2003, etc 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would be totally proper for a storm we actually started to believe in to hit NC after this winter. 

 

The 500 low looks pretty solid but I wonder if we'll end up worrying about sfc temps in the end anyway especially if there is no phase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing different about this scenario that hasn't been repeated ad naseum this winter.  Euro picks up a D7 storm for a few runs then at 5 days the GFS says no way.  People look to other models to support the Euro and dissect what the GFS is doing wrong.  Then at D4 the Euro caves to the GFS and we're left to chase the next D10 event or pattern change.  Except this time the next fantasy land chase is likely to be tornadic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing different about this scenario that hasn't been repeated ad naseum this winter.  Euro picks up a D7 storm for a few runs then at 5 days the GFS says no way.  People look to other models to support the Euro and dissect what the GFS is doing wrong.  Then at D4 the Euro caves to the GFS and we're left to chase the next D10 event or pattern change.  Except this time the next fantasy land chase is likely to be tornadic.

 

Except that it's a fairly different setup. Even if the "feelings" are similar and the bust potential - it's not like we are in an identical setup to the rest of winter here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except that it's a fairly different setup. Even if the "feelings" are similar and the bust potential - it's not like we are in an identical setup to the rest of winter here. 

 

true tho most setups around here are tricky and different. sometimes i get the sense that we oversell "uncertainty" in that almost every storm is like that at range. we just didn't used to talk about storms 8 days out nearly as much... perahps because skill has gotten better. it's really the rare storm that is easy to figure out by now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to see the potential should we get no phase...we may start to see those details work themselves out

 

again...it would not surprise me at all if we get an I-95 storm from DC to Boston....

 

a dc to boston snowstorm seems like one of the least likely options tho

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to see the potential should we get no phase...we may start to see those details work themselves out

again...it would not surprise me at all if we get an I-95 storm from DC to Boston....

The quasi 50-50 blocks always seem to lift out earlier than modeled. At 12z the euro kept it tucked in just long enough to paste us. Im w you and I could see the blocking retrogrde further NE causing an I95 storm.

At least we would be on the NW quad. I hate phases so much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...