North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The aforementioned post by "old Wes" http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/significant-winter-storm-potential-around-march-6-but-major-questions-remain/2013/03/01/dae1171e-8293-11e2-a350-49866afab584_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good article and the portion at the top about comparisons to 1962 is well done. I also agree that it is irresponsible to make those comparisons. I have been at the barrier islands of NJ this week and it's pretty freakin' bad there. Saying 1962 to them right now, when it isn't warranted, is pretty ridiculous. By the way, there is a local bar on Rt. 35 down there called "usedtobes" and it always makes me think of Wes when I drive past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good article and the portion at the top about comparisons to 1962 is well done. I also agree that it is irresponsible to make those comparisons. I have been at the barrier islands of NJ this week and it's pretty freakin' bad there. Saying 1962 to them right now, when it isn't warranted, is pretty ridiculous. By the way, there is a local bar on Rt. 35 down there called "usedtobes" and it always makes me think of Wes when I drive past it. HM, nice post in the pinned thread. Please pop in when you can to keep the weenies (like me) sane. We are staring at a conjugal visit after 10 years in prison here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 MSA's are next week. Could make for an interesting week at schools if this system pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z... toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z... toss it I am only out to 90. That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I am only out to 90. That bad? looks like it's going OTS at 120 tho maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 00z will be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 we're such suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HM said we don't have to worry about a N trend. What about a S trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 HM said we don't have to worry about a N trend. What about a S trend? d 5 is probably still too soon to be bullseyed. this won't end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Worst model run in the history of the planet of the united states of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 d 5 is probably still too soon to be bullseyed. this won't end well. Well, no ma winter is complete without a mid range hecs getting yanked away just about the same time it becomes believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, no ma winter is complete without a mid range hecs getting yanked away just about the same time it becomes believable. I want the purples to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 we're such suckers. Congrats, Hilton Head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Still a massive storm no matter the exact depiction of where it bombs-- the isobars look kind of like 3/93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I want the purples to come back Then we'll have mitchnick's BL issues posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I want the purples to come back The worst part about the 18z is that now I kinda have to stay up till the euro runs. Even if the 0z gfs jumps right back to purple, I'll still need some assurance. Kinda like when a year old needs mom AND dad to say goodnight or they cry their eyeballs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There are certain folks that should be 5-posted or banned if this storm gets more real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd like to know why exactly it has become nearly impossible for our area to get a snow storm for years on end. I don't even need a phasing hecs. Or a mecs. A little secs once in a while does the body good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There are certain folks that should be 5-posted or banned if this storm gets more real Im gonna go ahead and say stop wasting your time and ours, make 1% of a weather post if you have something to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Crazy how some mets only seem to care what the Euro thinks. If nothing else they should be careful not to oversell it as they might be replaced by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Crazy how some mets only seem to care what the Euro thinks. If nothing else they should be careful not to oversell it as they might be replaced by it. That last sentence is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 That last sentence is awesome. I'm not sure what the deal is lately. The Euro is clearly superior on the whole but the GFS is much better than it used to be and it still 'wins' quite often. I think some of it is a push to try to get more funding to better the GFS but it goes into the absurd realm... Mets with a big audience are poisoning the discussion by clearly not knowing what they are talking about. You see plenty of them still say the 18z runs are crap and that nothing matters if the Euro doesn't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good points Ian. I used to think the euro was the darling can't be wrong model because that's all I heard and I wasn't knowledgeable enough to compare anything. I've seen enough the last 3 years or so. Both the euro and gfs have their strengths and weaknesses. And the gfs is an excellent model. I think they are equals in many respects. It also bugs me every time I hear goofus. Someone who consistently calls the gfs that doesn't know how to read models and use them as the tool they are designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The weenie dream-destroying GFS is leading the way once again this winter, but not before it suckered lots of people in for a 12 hour joyride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Good points Ian. I used to think the euro was the darling can't be wrong model because that's all I heard and I wasn't knowledgeable enough to compare anything. I've seen enough the last 3 years or so. Both the euro and gfs have their strengths and weaknesses. And the gfs is an excellent model. I think they are equals in many respects. It also bugs me every time I hear goofus. Someone who consistently calls the gfs that doesn't know how to read models and use them as the tool they are designed for. Well, they aren't equals really and verification bears that out (though the gap isn't nearly as extreme as people make it seem). You are certainly right about people needing to learn how to interpret/use/apply models (instead of expecting deterministic output to verify as-is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love it Rooting against snow? There are certain folks that should be 5-posted or banned if this storm gets more real Dude, I've been saying that for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, they aren't equals really and verification bears that out (though the gap isn't nearly as extreme as people make it seem). You are certainly right about people needing to learn how to interpret/use/apply models (instead of expecting deterministic output to verify as-is). Yea, score wise the euro wins. But as you said, it's closer than many think. Maybe part of the bias is because snow is a movie star of weather events and the euro gets the big ones right sooner and more accurately more often than the gfs. But the gfs usually beats the euro with more subtle events. Especially ns dominant patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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