clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the worst would be if we get like 1.8" and we're the only spot left that has the 2" snow streak still intact. i feel moderately good we'll blow it out of the water.. well, maybe not blow it out of the water at dca. Well DCA could get 1.8 and Capitol Hill would have 8 so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 can the awful PA posters please be directed back to their subforum? I like how people think the subforums are defined based on climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dave's euro map has Leesburg at 3-6" DCA the same and BWI at 1-2" I've seldom rooted as hard for anything as I am for DT and his Euro humping to bust on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like how people think the subforums are defined based on climo in a lot of ways the same can be said about people who think it should be 100% divided by an arbitrary line. initially the state guidance was guidance.. again, there are people in far s pa that fit in with our weather more than people in sw va etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I won't be comfortable unless the 0z NAM gives me 4" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 in a lot of ways the same can be said about people who think it should be 100% divided by an arbitrary line. initially the state guidance was guidance.. again, there are people in far s pa that fit in with our weather more than people in sw va etc. Yeah that makes sense. I guess it depends on a lot of factors too like what exactly they are posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 i really like the cips analogs from what i've seen. pretty awesome it keeps showing snowmageddon. hecs baby hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i really like the cips analogs from what i've seen. pretty awesome it keeps showing snowmageddon. hecs baby hecs. We really do seem to be feast or famine with a lot of things lately lol. Severe included. Hell of a way to end the 2 inch streak if it happens like it's being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 weenie mode activated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 weenie mode activated When did we start to get the runs in Feb '10 that increased QPF with every 6 hrs? Was it this timeframe, or inside of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can understand the excitement the GFS (and other models) is causing for DC metro brethren, but what makes it so much more a likely scenario than the Euro solution which has been pretty consistent in its portrayal as well? The 12Z Euro ensembles went a tick south; fwiw. UK and Canadian models are south of the GFS too I think, I believe (NAM and JMA north of the Euro). The post may well be moot come 1:30am this morning and 1:30pm tomorrow if the Euro moves to the GFS solution, but it seems like there's just a bit of tunnel thinking going on here. Obviously, living in Central VA I'd love for the Euro solution to verify, but I don't assume it will, just as I wouldn't assume if the GFS showed a huge hit for Richmond and nothing for DC Metro that would automatically be correct either. If I were living in the DC area (which I did for over 30 years) I'd be hugging the GFS like my long lost aunt too. I'm just surprised there isn't a little more balance and caution being displayed, although I imagine that is a product of the fact that the vast majority of posters come from the DC Metro area. Just an observation, I really appreciate everyone's enthusiasm and those who so graciously share their vast meteorological knowledge and make it more understandable for those of us less skilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can understand the excitement the GFS (and other models) is causing for DC metro brethren, but what makes it so much more a likely scenario than the Euro solution which has been pretty consistent in its portrayal as well? The 12Z Euro ensembles went a tick south; fwiw. UK and Canadian models are south of the GFS too I think, I believe (NAM and JMA north of the Euro). The post may well be moot come 1:30am this morning and 1:30pm tomorrow if the Euro moves to the GFS solution, but it seems like there's just a bit of tunnel thinking going on here. Obviously, living in Central VA I'd love for the Euro solution to verify, but I don't assume it will, just as I wouldn't assume if the GFS showed a huge hit for Richmond and nothing for DC Metro that would automatically be correct either. If I were living in the DC area (which I did for over 30 years) I'd be hugging the GFS like my long lost aunt too. I'm just surprised there isn't a little more balance and caution being displayed, although I imagine that is a product of the fact that the vast majority of posters come from the DC Metro area. Just an observation, I really appreciate everyone's enthusiasm and those who so graciously share their vast meteorological knowledge and make it more understandable for those of us less skilled. I don't think reasonable people have completely latched on to the gfs, but rather that it didn't fold to the euro. We live for another model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can understand the excitement the GFS (and other models) is causing for DC metro brethren, but what makes it so much more a likely scenario than the Euro solution which has been pretty consistent in its portrayal as well? The 12Z Euro ensembles went a tick south; fwiw. UK and Canadian models are south of the GFS too I think, I believe (NAM and JMA north of the Euro). The post may well be moot come 1:30am this morning and 1:30pm tomorrow if the Euro moves to the GFS solution, but it seems like there's just a bit of tunnel thinking going on here. Obviously, living in Central VA I'd love for the Euro solution to verify, but I don't assume it will, just as I wouldn't assume if the GFS showed a huge hit for Richmond and nothing for DC Metro that would automatically be correct either. If I were living in the DC area (which I did for over 30 years) I'd be hugging the GFS like my long lost aunt too. I'm just surprised there isn't a little more balance and caution being displayed, although I imagine that is a product of the fact that the vast majority of posters come from the DC Metro area. Just an observation, I really appreciate everyone's enthusiasm and those who so graciously share their vast meteorological knowledge and make it more understandable for those of us less skilled. Even the Euro is a 6-8 inch storm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where have you been? Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote. Hit MultiQuote and then go to the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hit MultiQuote and then go to the other thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It apears DT hasn't made reference to the GFS on his FB page in more than a day.. God, this will be such an epic bust for him if the Euro ends up folding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't think reasonable people have completely latched on to the gfs, but rather that it didn't fold to the euro. We live for another model run. This ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 When did we start to get the runs in Feb '10 that increased QPF with every 6 hrs? Was it this timeframe, or inside of it? About the same time I think. The NAM was going ballistic with QPF like it always does. We all wrote it off then the GFS came around about the same. If I remember it was at 76 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't think reasonable people have completely latched on to the gfs, but rather that it didn't fold to the euro. We live for another model run. The canadian is almost identical to the GFS and NAM..The Euro and British model are alone right now. I'm not saying they are not right. Just they are alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches? Seriously? Can we get this crap into banter? Although I'm not even sure it's worthy of banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The canadian is almost identical to the GFS and NAM..The Euro and British model are alone right now. I'm not saying they are not right. Just they are alone. I'm not saying that either. I was just saying that for most of us, we are holding our breath with each gfs run hoping that this doesn't suddenly look like the euro. I'm only saying that it's happened before. We all know that models aren't going to get this dead-on, but us weenies are hoping that one is going to outperform another. Me? I want the gfs. Huff and those well south of DC? The euro. As a weenie, my guess is that it's something in between but I have nothing to offer to support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not saying that either. I was just saying that for most of us, we are holding our breath with each gfs run hoping that this doesn't suddenly look like the euro. I'm only saying that it's happened before. We all know that models aren't going to get this dead-on, but us weenies are hoping that one is going to outperform another. Me? I want the gfs. Huff and those well south of DC? The euro. As a weenie, my guess is that it's something in between but I have nothing to offer to support that. The euro is still 10 inches out here for me. At this point I will be shocked if I dont see at least 6 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro is still 10 inches out here for me. At this point I will be shocked if I dont see at least 6 inches from this. Yeah, you look good. The crazy gradient from east to west on some of the clown maps makes me nervous, but I always worry right up until the snow stops falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 there have never been more snow maps posted than in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 there have never been more snow maps posted than in the past hour I've been out all day and still haven't looked at the 18z. I greatly appreciate the maps because it saves me from looking at the run. I'm in awe on so many levels...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 there have never been more snow maps posted than in the past hour Being in the red light district in Amsterdam is fun and all but nothing beats tracking this. I cannot wait to get home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A foot of snow in early March isn't as hard as you think. Make mine a bourbon. Well, I'd feel a whole lot more confidence on Parr's Ridge too! Scotch for me, but I've got some fine bourbons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NBC 4 Doug Kamerer? led the 6 p.m. newscast by talking about the potential storm. But only said Wednesday will likely be "the most significant" snow of the year for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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