nj2va Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NBC 4 saying on TV right now that chances inside the Beltway of seeing accumulating snowfall are increasing. Can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes and no. When there's not much to talk about, letting banter fly at times is fine. It's really no big deal. When we are staring down the barrel of a major event it's a different story. I knocked off useless banter posts in the storm thread early yesterday afternoon. The second mets from other subforums join in with important discussion it's a no brainer to stfu unless you have real substance to add. I don't see why it's so hard but it is for some reason. Don't look at me, I hardly post in discussion threads. I know my place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NBC 4 saying on TV right now that chances inside the Beltway of seeing accumulating snowfall are increasing. Can't argue with that. Now that is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 List of best LWX discussions that would be on top of this? I would like to read around a get more than Sterling input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dang it, Kenny. I want to see what he says Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Go ahead Alright.. this morning I read the LWX discussion, looked at the 6z GFS and said (summarizing here).. that my guess is the models cut precip significantly as we get closer to the storm and that with reduce precip rates.. we will likely see rain... And for that, I got pounded... was told that my post was "odd/ aweful" and the I really need to "stop making predicitions" Then all the sudden we were in storm mode and my post disappeared... What was wrong with what I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alright.. this morning I read the LWX discussion, looked at the 6z GFS and said (summarizing here).. that my guess is the models cut precip significantly as we get closer to the storm and that with reduce precip rates.. we will likely see rain... And for that, I got pounded... was told that my post was "odd/ aweful" and the I really need to "stop making predicitions" Then all the sudden we were in storm mode and my post disappeared... What was wrong with what I said? The models aren't cutting back on the track and strength of the ull or the surface lp though. There are going to be precip wobbles every run. The synoptic features all point towards an area of heavy precip. Especially nw of the slp. Precip maps verbatim are low on the priority list of things to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Another nice band of snow showers moving through here. Shame this didn't happen at night; we'd have gotten a dusting out of this. Two days of numerous snow showers; hopefully, we add an actual accumulating snow in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is a really nice long way of saying "i'm going to be the biggest obs whore on earth when the deform band sets up over jyo and is dropping white asteroids so big they are setting off car alarms and denting mailboxes". At least that what I read anyways. Lol....I wish...I won't be home for this one....I honestly hope everyone gets some snow to enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The models aren't cutting back on the track and strength of the ull or the surface lp though. There are going to be precip wobbles every run. The synoptic features all point towards an area of heavy precip. Especially nw of the slp. Precip maps verbatim are low on the priority list of things to compare. This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 When is NAM most useful (if, at all)? Within 48 hours? Within 6 hours? I've seen varying degrees of opinions on this lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic? In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now I'm confused. I thought the NAM sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 When is NAM most useful (if, at all)? Within 48 hours? Within 6 hours? I've seen varying degrees of opinions on this lately. NAM isn't good with big winter storms at all. Even close in like 48. It's a good comparison tool to other models that are better with this stuff though. The 12z nam freaked out on precip but the track of the ull and evolution of the slp are stinking straight up porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Add another trace to the list. Snow flurrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now I'm confused. I thought the NAM sucked. It does. REally hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 When is NAM most useful (if, at all)? Within 48 hours? Within 6 hours? I've seen varying degrees of opinions on this lately. Within 6 hours.....into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now I'm confused. I thought the NAM sucked. It does. Still fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM isn't good with big winter storms at all. Even close in like 48. It's a good comparison tool to other models that are better with this stuff though. The 12z nam freaked out on precip but the track of the ull and evolution of the slp are stinking straight up porn. Good to know, thanks. So is any aspect of the NAM useful at this point, besides a comparison tool? (i.e. while the precip totals are, let's say, NAM-worthy, is it ok with track of the ull/slp?). I guess we'll see when the 12z suite comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It does. Still fun to look at. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 lol lol @ your lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES! purpled!.JPG Oh my god... we only need like half of the to verify for a legit SEC... this place is gonna explode if the GFS follows suit... looks like the deform band shifted north toward the MD/ VA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 In the context of how you posted, yes, it was bad. Gut calls with no analysis about precip has no place in the storm thread and will draw criticism every single time. If you posted 850/500 maps and explained the changes and trends that could logically cause a precip dropoff then that's a different story. No knocking you. Just being fair here. Speaking of precip.....this belongs in banter....but we just got f***ing nam'd hard. PURPLES! purpled!.JPG Hey, I didn't say we could trade the precip hole in exchange for purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is a really good explanation... do you think that saying someone's post is "odd/ aweful" is a good post.. like constructive to the overall conversation/ topic? I agree with Bob in regards to how you could have made the post more fitting for a discussion and analysis thread, but I'm always disappointed in how curt people can be on these boards. It's not hard to be courteous when explaining to someone why they should think twice about making such posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 lol @ your lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow...naffing NAMed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some good signs for snow I think are Tracker cleaning out the bus and MN and Bob helping to lead the way to show weenies where to post our garbage. Got some flurries out here now, and debating whether I should get out and give my Leyland cypress fence a good trimming so it can stand up to whatever comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree with Bob in regards to how you could have made the post more fitting for a discussion and analysis thread, but I'm always disappointed in how curt people can be on these boards. It's not hard to be courteous when explaining to someone why they should think twice about making such posts. Great post. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 List of best LWX discussions that would be on top of this? I would like to read around a get more than Sterling input. Wow. What an excellent disco! Who are "Lasora" and "HTS?" Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That nam. snow map would have had me standing tall a few years ago....if I lived up by Phin I would have smashed my computer...simply brutal map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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