Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z and 18z NAM and 4km NAM had a pretty Impressive Norlun feature on it for all of CT into rhode island and SE mass.. However 00z shows pretty much nothing! Euro shows some potential. what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 SREFs like the idea....its going to start as rian showers and eventually change to snow as the BL cools...have to consider that not much could happen too like the 00z NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ya these Setups are so delicate. Il never forget back in jan 2011 we had a freak Norlun drop 8-12" in a few hours in parts of my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ya these Setups are so delicate. Il never forget back in jan 2011 we had a freak Norlun drop 8-12" in a few hours in parts of my area... Yeah that was a fun one down here, totally unexpected, makes it all the more fun! Think someone in SNE sees 2" from this trough, but who knows where? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 interested to see what GFS and EURO shows.. all models have been hinting at something.. someone will probably have a pleasant surprise tomorrow night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Wish the boundary layer was better for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gfs is losing it too. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well so much for that guess that's why no one was talking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 meso still hittin it. they hit ct and then the hills of S/C orh county over to RI pretty good. i see this again as an elevation event right now (if it occurs) with AOA 500' accumulating and prolly the rev and ice warrior commandar having good shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 whdh forecast Cloudy and raw. Few spots of drizzle. Wetter late day with a possible changeover to wet snow after dark. Highs in the low 40s fall to the mid 30s after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 meso still hittin it. they hit ct and then the hills of S/C orh county over to RI pretty good. i see this again as an elevation event right now (if it occurs) with AOA 500' accumulating and prolly the rev and ice warrior commandar having good shots Then Im sitting pretty at 715 asl, if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Then Im sitting pretty at 715 asl, if it happens yes you are, i def had you in mind as well when i typed that. i'm wondering if what ever develops is gonna be convective in nature or what have you, but the signature on the 3hr radar qpf charts show an intersting staggering and clustering of heavy precip . starting tomm early pm in w ct and moving ENE ish ....at least on the BTV WRF just taking a peek at the HRRR guidance today the trend has been weaker and south with the norlun/ inv trough what have you as the 12z 18z and now 0z guidance comes in. 12z was very robust for S ORH county ....18z was better for elevations in ct and ri and 0z well ya that's good for nobody and basically a non event the thing basically rotates NE from NYC area early tomm and expands over ct then NE toward orh over to near fram/KBED and then seems to rotate SE . there is a lot of variability with the way the qpf does or doesn't develop and the way it tracks but i'd like to see the hrrr or arw more bullish tomo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I wouldn't pay too much attn to the NCEP models on this. Sref's still look decent. Not sure what Euro had..but this is going to be one of those fun little events tonight that isn't going to be well modelled and will just show up as light qpf. 1-2 maybe someone hits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Lets get Wills thoughts on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The SPC WRF hits Ginx and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The SPC WRF hits Ginx and RI.Can you see it tickling me and Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Meh, looked a bit better before last night's 00z runs. Maybe someone will still get a surprise 2"...but I think weenie flakes with coatings looks more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well that blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just noticed BOX has a snowfall map for tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just noticed BOX has a snowfall map for tonight lol can you post it Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 can you post it Kevin?Well its not worth posting. It has us less than an inch and 1-2 inches way up in N Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php thanks, Ill take a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z btv wrf meso has stuff supposedly developing in W CT /MA now .....mmmmkaay.....then drifting east and firing/refiring thru the day/evening/late evening /then dying out gradually over central /SE areas. looks like CT/RI/S ORH county would be in game if this play'd out SE interior mass to lesser extent....but we shall see. i guess watch the convection near ny/ct border and see if it develops and moves east? on wv it looks like a little sw/spoke of energy/lift /moisture rotating thru the delmarva about to take a left turn up toward us...perhaps this will provide some lift to light the fuse in CT. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Strange sky, strange day.............looks feels smells like a graupel fest somewhere later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z btv wrf meso has stuff supposedly developing in W CT /MA now .....mmmmkaay.....then drifting east and firing/refiring thru the day/evening/late evening /then dying out gradually over central /SE areas. looks like CT/RI/S ORH county would be in game if this play'd out SE interior mass to lesser extent....but we shall see. i guess watch the convection near ny/ct border and see if it develops and moves east? on wv it looks like a little sw/spoke of energy/lift /moisture rotating thru the delmarva about to take a left turn up toward us...perhaps this will provide some lift to light the fuse in CT. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Well, dark clouds in the nw sky and okx radar just picking up some very light returns to the west, might have the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well, dark clouds in the nw sky and okx radar just picking up some very light returns to the west, might have the right ideaAny Tor's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well, dark clouds in the nw sky and okx radar just picking up some very light returns to the west, might have the right idea return over sE pa ...sct'd thru most of NJ and now into SW ct ....ya looks like we will have to keep an eye on this stuff.....some meso's would give the idea that these returns become mod/to isolated heavy so ....i hope some weenie hiill could grab 2-3 ....that would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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