donsutherland1 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Through May 22, the average forecasting error is as follows: AccuWeather 90-day Forecast: 6.0° Climatology: 5.3° In terms of % of better forecasts (with each high or low temperature constituting a forecast), the tally for better forecasts is as follows: AccuWeather 90-day Forecast: 39% Climatology: 52% Tied: 9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Today saw Central Park reach 90° for the first time this year. Ironically, the 90-day AccuWeather forecast from today still shows no 90° readings (which is through August 23). In terms of the first 90° reading, the crudely-constructed analogs did better than AccuWeather's forecast. Those analogs were also off the mark with a June 27 date (#2751). Just as climo will very likely outperform the 90-day forecasts for the May-June period for which I'm comparing the two, climatology related to the first 90° day would have done very well: 1950-2015: Median first date: June 1 Earliest 10% of dates: April 27 or earlier Latest 10% of dates: June 24 or later Average daily error (5/1-26*): AccuWeather: 6.1° Climatology: 5.5° *-Based on today's 90°-69° range through 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Climatology outperformed the AccuWeather 90-day forecasts (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/?p=4082148) listed earlier in this thread. Climatology did better in terms of average error, % of cases with errors < 5°, and monthly mean temperature. The full data will be posted later today once NYC's high temperature has been registered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 May 2016 finished with a mean temperature of 62.8°. That was 0.4° above normal. During May, climatology fared better than AccuWeather's 90-day forecast. Climatology had an average error of approximately 13% less than the average error of the AccuWeather forecast. In short, the 90-day forecast showed no skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Through June 6, the average forecasting error for the May 1-June 6 period is as follows: AccuWeather: 7.0° Climatology: 6.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Through June 22, the average daily forecasting errors from the forecasts in #2751 (April 8) are below: It is now all but certain that climatology will outperform the AccuWeather 90-day forecast for the May-June timeframe. It is also possible that in the extended part of the forecasting range (June), the simple analogs constructed from ENSO/SSTAs may also outperform the AccuWeather 90-day forecast. If that happens, I will run another test using the AccuWeather 90-day forecast, Climatology, and the simple Analogs for September based on the 7/3 AccuWeather forecast (which would encompass 9/1-30) to see if the outcome is an aberration. I would again expect climatology to do better than the AccuWeather 90-day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Final May-June Average Daily Errors: Climatology: 5.3° AccuWeather 90-Day Forecast: 6.1° Analogs (ENSO/SSTAs): 6.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 The September numbers: Monthly Anomaly: AccuWeather: -0.4° Analogs: +2.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 The September numbers: Monthly Anomaly: AccuWeather: -0.4° Analogs: +2.9° We're lately finding with our changing climate analogs mean little and besides those averages are based on 1981-2010 normal temps, which don't reflect today's climate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 We're lately finding with our changing climate analogs mean little and besides those averages are based on 1981-2010 normal temps, which don't reflect today's climate.. I don't expect the analogs to have much relevance. The major point was that the AccuWx 90-day forecasts have no meaningful value. Climatology is superior. Even very simple analogs are competitive (actually they did better in the extended part of that forecast range last time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 I don't expect the analogs to have much relevance. The major point was that the AccuWx 90-day forecasts have no meaningful value. Climatology is superior. Even very simple analogs are competitive (actually they did better in the extended part of that forecast range last time). My guess is that July will have the biggest anomaly maybe 2 degrees above average while August an Sept are near normal, a degree either way, nevertheless long range weather predictions have never been reliable not even today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 JB just pulled the plug on his stron NINA call-says the +PDO and dead sun have killed the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 JB just pulled the plug on his stron NINA call-says the +PDO and dead sun have killed the idea. Dead sun? Lower solar cycle? How Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Dead sun? Lower solar cycle? How We have Low Solar I'm cutting back on La Nina, and its effect on our land Hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 JB also notes that the cooler globe is a thing of the past and that there are not many analogs to what's going on now-I wonder if he's finally coming around to the warmer base state and abandoning his anti global warming stance (albeit slowly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Amy Freeze says 90 and above Wednesday thru at least the 20th with more heat reloading after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Amy Freeze says 90 and above Wednesday thru at least the 20th with more heat reloading after that And no rain. Yay more brown grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Amy Freeze says 90 and above Wednesday thru at least the 20th with more heat reloading after that Try quoting another met on that channel because she is horrible. Constantly making mistakes on-air and has the most awkward exchanges with other anchors. A lot of awkward silence when she's on-air. Not saying that she's going to be wrong but she is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Try quoting another met on that channel because she is horrible. Constantly making mistakes on-air and has the most awkward exchanges with other anchors. A lot of awkward silence when she's on-air. Not saying that she's going to be wrong but she is terrible I don't think they hired her for her brains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Try quoting another met on that channel because she is horrible. Constantly making mistakes on-air and has the most awkward exchanges with other anchors. A lot of awkward silence when she's on-air. Not saying that she's going to be wrong but she is terrible The mets work as a team there. She isnt making up model info herself anyhow. I like her and actually she is quite popular..nothing awkward about her..maybe you feel awkward watching her and thats the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Amy Freeze says 90 and above Wednesday thru at least the 20th with more heat reloading after that wrong thread There's a vendor/on air met thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 The mets work as a team there. She isnt making up model info herself anyhow. I like her and actually she is quite popular..nothing awkward about her..maybe you feel awkward watching her and thats the issue I'm sure Jeff Smith/Lee Goldberg make up her forecasts the night before and she just wings it the next morning. Yes she is pretty but I for one hate the fact that these stations hire mets for their looks. They all do. Put a real, professional met on air at all times. There's a good reason that she's stuck with the weekend morning shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Jeff smith is hands down the best on air met in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 I'm sure Jeff Smith/Lee Goldberg make up her forecasts the night before and she just wings it the next morning. Yes she is pretty but I for one hate the fact that these stations hire mets for their looks. They all do. Put a real, professional met on air at all times. There's a good reason that she's stuck with the weekend morning shiftShe was the chief met at another station before coming there so I'm pretty sure you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 She was the chief met at another station before coming there so I'm pretty sure you're wrong. the previous female met before her heidi jones was much more knowledgeable and descriptive in her weatehr updates.. than amy.. but she was let go for bizarre reasons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Jeff smith is hands down the best on air met in the metro area. He and lee both have Cornell met degrees. I prefer lee. Amy freeze has a masters in environmental science from Penn. So she's not dumb but also not technically a met. I find her ackward too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 He and lee both have Cornell met degrees. I prefer lee. Amy freeze has a masters in environmental science from Penn. So she's not dumb but also not technically a met. I find her ackward too Lee has turned into a ham. Yeah we get it, its cold out you don't need to stand outside the studio so we can see your breath. I realize they make him do that I just find it annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 She was the chief met at another station before coming there so I'm pretty sure you're wrong. Yeah she was basically fired in Chicago as her contract was not renewed. They must of seen what I see. Her delivery on-air is just not smooth. Very different from the other 3 at the station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 the previous female met before her heidi jones was much more knowledgeable and descriptive in her weatehr updates.. than amy.. but she was let go for bizarre reasons.. Well yeah she was nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 I haven't watched a TV forecast in years. all the info is here/models/twitter etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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