nycwinter Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 like 10 years ago she and liz cho are gorgeous for women of that age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 From Bernie : good night sleep!...here is what come into foucs. As discussed yesterday the second piece of energy is the storm. Do I buy where the models are taking it..not a chance. Why would you? Do I know the exact track? well not yet, but I am working on it. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk In other words..keep checking out my videos I'm loving the traffic to the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 JB thinks the storm next week has 2 lows. One up the coast and one inland with snow changing to rain for the coast. Wut? No one is seeing snow to start with that setup, plus there's no cold air ahead of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 LC thinks there will be blocking to force next weeks storm off the coast going to be interesting if his newsletter due in a few hours still mentions his off the coast solution................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 going to be interesting if his newsletter due in a few hours still mentions his off the coast solution................ LOL-the storm ends up west of Detroit. Enough of these snake oil salesmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 LOL-the storm ends up west of Detroit. Enough of these snake oil salesmenLarry Cosgrove was taken to the woodshed this winter. Absolutely horrific storm calls this winter, not even close, like this last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Larry Cosgrove was taken to the woodshed this winter. Absolutely horrific storm calls this winter, not even close, like this last one Can't say I pay much attention to him but this winter has humbled many and the last 2-3 weeks has been a cruel joke. Didn't hear many talking about a parade of cutters and warmth just 2 weeks ago...even JB's relegated to posting about getting the upper air pattern right and strange stuff about warm fronts in NC and other odds and ends that most don't really care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Mother nature is laughing her way into Spring. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What is JB smoking? His video today talk about this great pattern, yet the models looks awful for anything of note around here with regard to either snow or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB going coast to coast torch for summer-large area of +3 which covers this subforum. Analogs are 1988, 1998, 2007, & 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB going coast to coast torch for summer-large area of +3 which covers this subforum. Analogs are 1988, 1998, 2007, & 2010 I think we're going to see an inferno of a summer. It could be extremely dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB going coast to coast torch for summer-large area of +3 which covers this subforum. Analogs are 1988, 1998, 2007, & 2010 I think that is underdone. I'm going with a monster torch with +5 or greater June and July. Not sure about August though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 summer analogs after el nino...9 of 20 years were hot...9 were not... cool..... 1942 1958 1964 1969 1978 1992 1998 2003 2007 hot..... 1952 1966 1977 1980 1983 1988 1995 2005 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think that is underdone. I'm going with a monster torch with +5 or greater June and July. Not sure about August though. I agree-but no one is going to go that high on a seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I agree-but no one is going to go that high on a seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB going coast to coast torch for summer-large area of +3 which covers this subforum. Analogs are 1988, 1998, 2007, & 2010 The combination of an El Niño that gives way to a La Niña along with a warm Atlantic has typically resulted in hot summers in the area. From the four cases you cited, 1988, 1998, and 2010 fall into that category. It's early, but should that Atlantic remain warm, which appears more likely than not, a summer 2° to 4° above normal would seem plausible. The worst case would probably be similar to the anomalies from an average of summers 1995 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The combination of an El Niño that gives way to a La Niña along with a warm Atlantic has typically resulted in hot summers in the area. From the four cases you cited, 1988, 1998, and 2010 fall into that category. It's early, but should that Atlantic remain warm, which appears more likely than not, a summer 2° to 4° above normal would seem plausible. The worst case would probably be similar to the anomalies from an average of summers 1995 and 2010. Hot and wet or hot and dry? Would prefer hot and wet, better for my garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Haven't seen many hot + wet summers,hot and dry yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Tropical threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Haven't seen many hot + wet summers,hot and dry yes Hard to get hot and wet at this latitude. If it's wet, it's usually cool or warm at best, but hot? Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 FWIW, Accuweather now posts 90-day daily forecasts. Accuweather forecasts that New York City's first 80° day will be June 5 (high temperature of 81°). The odds of waiting until June 5 for the first 80° reading are extremely small. In New York City, Since 1900, there has been only one case where the first 80° reading occurred in June: 1924 when the high temperature first reached 80° on June 7. Since 1900, NYC had seen no 80° or above readings through April in 35% of years. It had seen no 80° or higher temperatures through May in just 0.9% of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 FWIW, Accuweather now posts 90-day daily forecasts. Accuweather forecasts that New York City's first 80° day will be June 5 (high temperature of 81°). The odds of waiting until June 5 for the first 80° reading are extremely small. In New York City, Since 1900, there has been only one case where the first 80° reading occurred in June: 1924 when the high temperature first reached 80° on June 7. Since 1900, NYC had seen no 80° or above readings through April in 35% of years. It had seen no 80° or higher temperatures through May in just 0.9% of years. I'm sure those are just GFS type computer generated figures.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I'm sure those are just GFS type computer generated figures.... I'm sure they are largely CFS-based numbers. Essentially useless numbers shouldn't be posted, as they provide no meaningful insight. That the posted numbers suggest a scenario that has almost no chance of verification speaks for itself. I will verify the May/June AccuWx forecasts for New York City against the daily normal figures. For purposes of fun, I'll also verify numbers for constructed analogs based on winter ENSO/Western Atlantic SSTAs/Eastern Pacific SSTAs. I suspect that both the AccuWx and Analog figures will fare worse than the daily normals. The figures are as follows: May: June: In sum, the lack of skill for daily-level forecasts relative to climatology should show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 As noted earlier in this thread, the odds of the first 80 degree day occurring in June were very low. That was the 90 day AccuWx forecast. Today was the first such day in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 accu long range minimums were near record high levels for May the other day when I checked...anyone with knowledge of the climate for this area could put out a 45 day forecast just as good or bad as accuwx...I haven't checked if they are right when it comes to precipitation on a given day...I wouldn't cancel an out door BBQ based on their forecast a week in advance...let alone a month or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Back in April, AccuWeather unveiled its 90-day forecasts. I took the numbers from the forecast issued on April 8 and am comparing those forecasts with climatology for New York City for May and June. After the first nine days of May, the numbers are very close. However, if the MOS forecasts through May 17 are reasonably accurate, climatology will move ahead of the AccuWeather 90-day forecasts for the May 1-17 period. Note: The numbers against which the AccuWeather 90-day forecast and climatology will be compared for May and June were posted on April 8 (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/?p=4082148). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Back in April, AccuWeather unveiled its 90-day forecasts. I took the numbers from the forecast issued on April 8 and am comparing those forecasts with climatology for New York City for May and June. After the first nine days of May, the numbers are very close. However, if the MOS forecasts through May 17 are reasonably accurate, climatology will move ahead of the AccuWeather 90-day forecasts for the May 1-17 period. Note: The numbers against which the AccuWeather 90-day forecast and climatology will be compared for May and June were posted on April 8 (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/?p=4082148). Interesting but at this juncture I would say that it's more chance than anything else that they were close. Long range modeling is often pretty bad. Now granted if the sample size grows and it's close, then I would say they might be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Interesting but at this juncture I would say that it's more chance than anything else that they were close. Long range modeling is often pretty bad. Now granted if the sample size grows and it's close, then I would say they might be onto something. I agree. I don't see the 90-day forecasts as being better than climo. We'll see what happens, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Brief update... Average Daily Error (May 1-17): AccuWeather 90-day Forecast: High Temperature: 7.8° Low Temperature: 5.4° Mean Temperature: 6.6° Climatology: High Temperature: 8.5° Low Temperature: 3.7° Mean Temperature: 6.1° If the MEX MOS forecast through 5/25 is reasonably accurate, the difference between climatology and the AccuWeather 90-day forecast could widen. Finally, FWIW, today's 90-day forecast shows no 90° days for NYC through August 15. Just as its forecast related to 80° days busted badly, the same outcome is extremely likely to occur with respect to the City's first 90° day. Since 1871, the latest date on which Central Park registered its first 90° temperature is July 26, 1877 (92°). The three latest dates for such a reading are as follows: 1. 7/26/1877: 92° 2. 7/15/1871: 91° 3. 7/12/1960: 91° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Steve D attempting to act like he's god's gift to meteorologist who use OBS to forecast long range on twitter is downright hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.