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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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Question: I discovered a Twitter met called crankyweatherguy. I followed him before the storm and as the storm was underway on Friday. I found him, in the short time I followed, to be very knowledgeable and accurate. Anyone know of him or who he is?

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He post alot of great stuff over on the wunderground blogs

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Alert Alert Alert

Another major victory by Bistardi .

His call from 6 days ago was

DC 20

Philly 18

NYC 14

Boston 11( they got 8 ) the forecast a day away was 0

An amazing hold through all the guidance that turned this E once off OBX.

There were posters here who hugged the PARA when it whiffed and posted the GFS SE QPF lean and how this was Feb 2010 again.

You guys conflate the climate arguement with his forecasting ability

He crushed this forecast but some morons will just never admit it .

 

He nailed it.   He's very good with the big ones like Feb 03, Feb 06 etc.  If anything he ended up a bit underdone, but no one cares if that is the case.

Bastardi for all his things is one of very few mets who practice meteorology and not modelology.

The past week was a disgrace to the industry.

It was interesting that he and Kocin both said do not look at model output until 1 or 2 days before the storm.  Turned out to be right as models in the 3-4 day didn't lose the storm, but they scaled back at that point only roar back at days 2 to 1....

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Alert Alert Alert

Another major victory by Bistardi .

His call from 6 days ago was

DC 20

Philly 18

NYC 14

Boston 11( they got 8 ) the forecast a day away was 0

An amazing hold through all the guidance that turned this E once off OBX.

There were posters here who hugged the PARA when it whiffed and posted the GFS SE QPF lean and how this was Feb 2010 again.

You guys conflate the climate arguement with his forecasting ability

He crushed this forecast but some morons will just never admit it .

...dont sell yourself short..you've been dead on also !!  nice job..

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Alert Alert Alert

Another major victory by Bistardi .

His call from 6 days ago was

DC 20

Philly 18

NYC 14

Boston 11( they got 8 ) the forecast a day away was 0

An amazing hold through all the guidance that turned this E once off OBX.

There were posters here who hugged the PARA when it whiffed and posted the GFS SE QPF lean and how this was Feb 2010 again.

You guys conflate the climate arguement with his forecasting ability

He crushed this forecast but some morons will just never admit it .

So you agree he is dead wrong on climate science....I'm hearing a lot of mets patting themselves on the back these days but I don't remember any saying NYC and North Jersey were getting 25-30 until the last minute....I did see people on here saying it though. By the way you did a great job in recent weeks, it has to be noted.

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So you agree he is dead wrong on climate science....I'm hearing a lot of mets patting themselves on the back these days but I don't remember any saying NYC and North Jersey were getting 25-30 until the last minute....I did see people on here saying it though. By the way you did a great job in recent weeks, it has to be noted.

 

Thank you . 

 

JB should never have touched the issue . 

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January is already above average and will likely finish +2 or greater.

The warm pattern has not stopped. We just got lucky with perfectly timed vorts, 50/50 and a bootleg block.

 

We all agree the base state is warming but the DEC to JAN flip over the CONUS was outstanding 

 

 

AG on JAN  26 it is plus 1 at KNYC 

 

We had a + 18 day  and a + 13 day otherwise the month is just  N . 

 

 

56a6a7752abee_ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomJA

 

 

56a6a8578854a_ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_122015J

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We all agree the base state is warming but the DEC to JAN flip over the CONUS was outstanding

AG on JAN 26 it is plus 1 at KNYC

We had a + 18 day and a + 13 day otherwise the month is just N .

56a6a7752abee_ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomJA

56a6a8578854a_ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_122015J

Of course it was a huge flip we had record warmth lol. Don't understand why u are so fascinated by the turn around . temps were not going to stay that warm forever

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January is already above average and will likely finish +2 or greater.

The warm pattern has not stopped. We just got lucky with perfectly timed vorts, 50/50 and a bootleg block.

Just reinforces the idea that you can have a record breaking snowstorm and almost a season's worth of snow in the same month while the same monthly temperature averages above normal

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...JB big on SSW..calling for us to turn BL by day 10..stormy too.

even though he was wrong about this week's storm coming west - he has been above average accurate about the overall pattern since last summer - so IMO have to highly consider what he is predicting down the road....

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Of course it was a huge flip we had record warmth lol. Don't understand why u are so fascinated by the turn around . temps were not going to stay that warm forever

 

 

Was that the majority view on the board from late Dec up until last week .  Posts of winters over can be found as late as page 158 on the banter page.

Go check those calls out just 10 days ago .

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47333-met-winter-banter/page-158? 

 

Scroll back and see if many thought this flip was real . 

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Was that the majority view on the board from late Dec up until last week .  Posts of winters over can be found as late as page 158 on the banter page.

Go check those calls out just 10 days ago .

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47333-met-winter-banter/page-158? 

 

Scroll back and see if many thought this flip was real . 

You are right. Many people never brought into the change like you did. Plenty of winter cancel posts and below average snowfall all over this forum and internet.

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You are right. Many people never brought into the change like you did. Plenty of winter cancel posts and below average snowfall all over this forum and internet.

I'm curious to see how the rest of winter plays out. If it turns out to be mild with little to no additional snowfall then wouldn't the blizzard be considered a fluke/luck like 2006/1983.

And what about if this winter turns out to be the warmest on record, which is definitely still in the cards.

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I'm curious to see how the rest of winter plays out. If it turns out to be mild with little to no additional snowfall then wouldn't the blizzard be considered a fluke/luck like 2006/1983.

And what about if this winter turns out to be the warmest on record, which is definitely still in the cards.

 

Coldest 10 day stretch of winter will be found inside the period of the 5th - 20th

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I'm curious to see how the rest of winter plays out. If it turns out to be mild with little to no additional snowfall then wouldn't the blizzard be considered a fluke/luck like 2006/1983.

And what about if this winter turns out to be the warmest on record, which is definitely still in the cards.

Would be more like 83. 2005-06 did have some other snow events and was cold, particularly in December

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  yeah he nailed the cold december 2016   wiuth all those cold is coming didnt he ?

 

even though he was wrong about this week's storm coming west - he has been above average accurate about the overall pattern since last summer - so IMO have to highly consider what he is predicting down the road....

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even though he was wrong about this week's storm coming west - he has been above average accurate about the overall pattern since last summer - so IMO have to highly consider what he is predicting down the road....

His cold December call was absolutely stellar. We were only +11 that month
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His cold December call was absolutely stellar. We were only +11 that month

he never  called for a cold December. His mistake for January was saying early on that his -1 call (NYC) for Jan would bust.  It will bust, but not the way he thought it would bust.   His call on the snowstorm was outstanding while others lowballed the northern end

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he never called for a cold December. His mistake for January was saying early on that his -1 call (NYC) for Jan would bust. It will bust, but not the way he thought it would bust. His call on the snowstorm was outstanding while others lowballed the northern end

I stand corrected, he called for a normal December. Either way, epic bust
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