Dan76 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just was watching/listening to Joe Cioffi's update. He sees not much on the short/immediate horizon for snowfall. Maybe a snow shower Sunday night/Monday AM. But that is it. Everything else is OTS or very weak. One long range thing he mentioned (talking 26-27th) is a lake cutter, that would bring lots of windswept rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ...Lee Goldberg a couple of days ago showed "increase chance of snow thru late jan." then yesterday said .."last week of jan. turns warm"..???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I believe the end of yesterday's 12z Euro, or perhaps it was the 00z run from the night before, had a ridge building over much of the eastern U.S. But it looked transitory and I wouldn't trust anything on an operational model 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ...its saturday and that means you will get JBs' saturdays' update and LCs' newsletter.. ..wonder if they will bail ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ...Lee Goldberg a couple of days ago showed "increase chance of snow thru late jan." then yesterday said .."last week of jan. turns warm"..???? Model hugging more than 10 days out...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This was emailed to me from Larry Cosgrove last Saturday the 9th- "The path idea that I am currently following calls for the low pressure center to make a jump to offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula on the morning of January 18, then intensify passing over Nantucket MA toward an eventual destination near Halifax NS on January 19. I cannot say for sure that the snowfall prediction of the Canadian model will verify. But I am inclined to think that the advance of cA values will be strong enough to offset warmer than normal oceanic temperatures, and that accumulations of snow may make it over or at least near to the Interstate 95 cities at and above Washington DC." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This was emailed to me from Larry Cosgrove last Saturday the 9th- "The path idea that I am currently following calls for the low pressure center to make a jump to offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula on the morning of January 18, then intensify passing over Nantucket MA toward an eventual destination near Halifax NS on January 19. I cannot say for sure that the snowfall prediction of the Canadian model will verify. But I am inclined to think that the advance of cA values will be strong enough to offset warmer than normal oceanic temperatures, and that accumulations of snow may make it over or at least near to the Interstate 95 cities at and above Washington DC." Well that looks like a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well that looks like a bust. time will tell - BUT it's verification time - let's see how accurate these guys - (some of them that charge you $$) - are with their longer term forecasts....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 JB is not backing down. He still thinks a big ssw event is on the way, time will tell - BUT it's verification time - let's see how accurate these guys - (some of them that charge you $$) - are with their longer term forecasts....... I get their forecasts for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 JB is not backing down. He still thinks a big ssw event is on the way, I get their forecasts for free. JB is the captain of the Titanic, yet again. Casey Jones on the runaway train, yet again. His call for a normal December in the northeast was a colossal bust and January up until this point is also busting in the northeast so far and looks to really go south starting next weekend. It's almost February and he's refusing to even aknowledge that his northeast forecast has been horrible up to today and he keeps blindly calling for super cold and snow that never comes to fruition, which is the norm for him when his forecast is in serious trouble. He will keep this up until mid February when he really embarasses himself again like he did in 11-12 (as just one example) and has no other choice. Tweets don't lie and neither do videos. JB was calling for cold and snow back in November too that busted big time. Remember his tweets in early November calling for Arctic cold and snow arriving in the east for thanksgiving week? BUST!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 JB is not backing down. He still thinks a big ssw event is on the way, I get their forecasts for free. grasping at straws now....he has been taken to the woodshed on January so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 JB is the captain of the Titanic, yet again. Casey Jones on the runaway train, yet again. His call for a normal December in the northeast was a colossal bust and January up until this point is also busting in the northeast so far and looks to really go south starting next weekend. It's almost February and he's refusing to even aknowledge that his northeast forecast has been horrible up to today and he keeps blindly calling for super cold and snow that never comes to fruition, which is the norm for him when his forecast is in serious trouble. He will keep this up until mid February when he really embarasses himself again like he did in 11-12 (as just one example) and has no other choice. Tweets don't lie and neither do videos. JB was calling for cold and snow back in November too that busted big time. Remember his tweets in early November calling for Arctic cold and snow arriving in the east for thanksgiving week? BUST!!! The guy is a climate denier who was flat out told by a real scientist ( JB only has a BS ) that he didn't know enough physics to even understand CO2. Anyone else would have stopped embarrassing themselves by now but I guess the roids have gotten to him over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Joe Cioffi is signaling that he is thinking the cold February forecasts are likely to not verify . . . Speaking of another pattern change, to one more reminiscent of this past December. There was a poster in another thread who spoke of a ten-day winter this year. Wonder if he'll be right in the end. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Joe Cioffi is signaling that he is thinking the cold February forecasts are likely to not verify . . . Speaking of another pattern change, to one more reminiscent of this past December. There was a poster in another thread who spoke of a ten-day winter this year. Wonder if he'll be right in the end. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk if that were to happen-10 day winter it would match up with duds such as 94-95, 01-02 11-12 and to a lesser extent 05-06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 if that were to happen-10 day winter it would match up with duds such as 94-95, 01-02 11-12 and to a lesser extent 05-06. Hated 11-12. Even though it wasn't cold, it was chilly. At least this year there were a few weeks where the heat never went on. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-ohio-valley-middle-atlantic-northeast?cm_ven=FB_WX_JB_11816_1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB made a real curious prediction for the upcoming storm this weekend - he said " to blend Feb 5/6 2010 and February 17 -18 2003 for accumulations " HUH ?? Feb 5/6 I had 3 inches here in Middlesex County NJ and February 17 I had 22 inches - I think he meant Feb 9 -10 2010 http://www.weatherbell.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB made a real curious prediction for the upcoming storm this weekend - he said " to blend Feb 5/6 2010 and February 17 -18 2003 for accumulations " HUH ?? Feb 5/6 I had 3 inches here in Middlesex County NJ and February 17 I had 22 inches - I think he meant Feb 9 -10 2010 http://www.weatherbell.com/ No he clarified his statement saying he forgot 2/5/10 was so bad further north. He said for NYC to use 83 and 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No he clarified his statement saying he forgot 2/5/10 was so bad further north. He said for NYC to use 83 and 2003 yes I just saw he corrected himself - kind of strange Kocin made the same mistake wouldn't surprise me if Kocin and Bastardi talked to one another about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 JB There is crucial model question around va capes as storms love to pull straight north along coastal front, which should be close to coast. So if model wants storm 100 miles east Va Beach and its on top of them, will change feedback of system, result. day 2-4 modeling notoriously too far e on east coast. So my forecast is blend of 3 similar storms, all in el nino years btw! Just so happens that except on northern edge, model blend matches up very nicely, but has been out since SUNDAY. Bullseye near DC, not BOS I agree. Storms want to follow the Gulf Stream. Which heads north east no straight east. This is why you often see that bench mark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Steve D's Storm Impact Map https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/20/storm-impacts-forecast-for-january-23-24-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Steve D roughly 10-15 NYC. DT 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't understand why Rayno keeps NYC in the 6-12" zone if he thinks Boston is getting 6-12" also. Seems like if the storm trends that far north, then NYC is definitely getting over a foot. Also, I've never heard of the "Norm MacDonald Rule" (storms exit N America continent at the same latitude they enter it). Has anyone heard this rule before? How accurate is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Alert Alert Alert Another major victory by Bistardi . His call from 6 days ago was DC 20 Philly 18 NYC 14 Boston 11( they got 8 ) the forecast a day away was 0 An amazing hold through all the guidance that turned this E once off OBX. There were posters here who hugged the PARA when it whiffed and posted the GFS SE QPF lean and how this was Feb 2010 again. You guys conflate the climate arguement with his forecasting ability He crushed this forecast but some morons will just never admit it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Bastardi for all his things is one of very few mets who practice meteorology and not modelology. The past week was a disgrace to the industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Bastardi for all his things is one of very few mets who practice meteorology and not modelology. The past week was a disgrace to the industry. I think Bernie Rayno was good. He kept insisting the storm would come north at the last minute. He was way off on storm totals, though. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think Bernie Rayno was good. He kept insisting the storm would come north at the last minute. He was way off on storm totals, though. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk But he insisted on ignoring the NAM numbers though. He did decently enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 But he insisted on ignoring the NAM numbers though. He did decently enough. True, but I could understand that. I halved the NAM numbers. Who knew that being NAMed in this case would mean getting walloped by 28" of snow? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Question: I discovered a Twitter met called crankyweatherguy. I followed him before the storm and as the storm was underway on Friday. I found him, in the short time I followed, to be very knowledgeable and accurate. Anyone know of him or who he is? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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