Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

[Prestige Worldwide]

HM just tweeted "just like the analogs said, including the hated Jan phase 8, warm anomalies stick over NE US in Jan on ensembles".

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) update on the probable upcoming pattern change.

 

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

[MJO812]

LC and DT are barking hard on a big pattern change mid January

[tim]

LC and DT are barking hard on a big pattern change mid January

...just read LC..just viewed JB..along with DT,DON S,ISOTHERM,PB GFI..(& many more)

all seem pretty confident that this mess we are in is going to turn and turn in a big way!

[weatherpruf]

LC and DT are barking hard on a big pattern change mid January

DT needs to hire a professional proofreader or take more time with his posts. His writing comes off as that of a barely coherent manifesto from a nutjob. ANd I haven't forgotten how he blew the big nonblizzard for us last year. That said, I hope he is right.

[dmillz25]

DT needs to hire a professional proofreader or take more time with his posts. His writing comes off as that of a barely coherent manifesto from a nutjob. ANd I haven't forgotten how he blew the big nonblizzard for us last year. That said, I hope he is right.

I think he admitted to having dyslexia before

[CIK62]

Interesting how they can predict a pattern change/flip, but at the start of December could not tell us this was going to be Sigma 8+ month, w/o a single day going below normal.    10 days in the 60's, plus a 72 for good measure.   Also that this Dec. would qualify for the top ten in November, when 138/148  Novembers do not!   They all said above normal of course.   Seven strong El Ninos since 1950 produced that result.   I want to know where the extra 7 degrees of record warmth came from.   Then sing me a lullaby of pattern change. 

Obviously Jan/Feb can not be +14 too----but is +3 really a change?   A flip means we have a negative month or some negative 30 day period----that ridges and troughs exchange rolls.  I hope they are right and not doing what the idiot experts on the business channels do----make wild guesses and hope they are right so they can be called the next gurus of Wall St.

[buckeye]

Interesting how they can predict a pattern change/flip, but at the start of December could not tell us this was going to be Sigma 8+ month, w/o a single day going below normal.    10 days in the 60's, plus a 72 for good measure.   Also that this Dec. would qualify for the top ten in November, when 128/138  Novembers do not!   They all said above normal of course.   Seven strong El Ninos since 1950 produced that result.   I want to know where the extra 7 degrees of record warmth came from.   Then sing me a lullaby of pattern change. 

Obviously Jan/Feb can not be +14 too----but is +3 really a change?   A flip means we have a negative month or some negative 30 day period----that ridges and troughs exchange rolls.  I hope they are right and not doing what the idiot experts on the business channels do----make wild guesses and hope they are right so they can be called the next gurus of Wall St.

 

great point.    

 

There's only 3 degrees between a -1 December and a +2 December.    But 8 degrees between a +2 and a +10, and yet the claimed prize, (bragging rights), for calling for an AN December is the same.

[PB GFI]

Interesting how they can predict a pattern change/flip, but at the start of December could not tell us this was going to be Sigma 8+ month, w/o a single day going below normal.    10 days in the 60's, plus a 72 for good measure.   Also that this Dec. would qualify for the top ten in November, when 128/138  Novembers do not!   They all said above normal of course.   Seven strong El Ninos since 1950 produced that result.   I want to know where the extra 7 degrees of record warmth came from.   Then sing me a lullaby of pattern change. 

Obviously Jan/Feb can not be +14 too----but is +3 really a change?   A flip means we have a negative month or some negative 30 day period----that ridges and troughs exchange rolls.  I hope they are right and not doing what the idiot experts on the business channels do----make wild guesses and hope they are right so they can be called the next gurus of Wall St.

 

 

Total  lack of understanding of it`s meaning . 

 

You are going from + 12 to N in 1 month and witnessing a complete reversal at 500mb over the E/US W Canada and the EP region    . It has  totally  gone against your CFS guidance and towards the European . Like we told you it would . 

 

 

Do you not see the significance of the divergence in the guidance from just a few weeks ago ?    Long before the CFS caught this cold - we were posting ( for months ) that we would reverse . 

 

The CFS had the ridge in the east for Jan for 6 months now we said it was wrong , it now sees it`s wrong and you still don`t want to see the correction .  The CFS is now BN for Jan . + 3 is LONG GONE . 

 

 

These arguments were won in the ENSO thread this fall , go back and read them . While you are at it  check your posts from a week ago in the banter thread on how the CFS was still  +8 for the 1st week of Jan , and tell me us what the model sees now .  That`s a +8 bust  from only a week away. 

 

Dec was suppose to be warm  The guidance was +2 to +4 . No model saw +10  conversely when many of  us thought last winter would turn out back loaded  most Feb guidance was -2 to -4  did the -10 negate those calls ?

 

The models tend not see those large departures so it would never be wise for a forecaster to opine a  + 10 or - 10 from a distance it would be laughed at . 

 

The credit isn`t for calling for a warm NOV/DEC, it`s for the argument that this winter would turn colder after . The fact that D was AN  to it`s extent never bothered those of us who were confident in the change on the back end .

Those who failed at another forecast refuse to see the flip .  

 

This was not 97/98 was always the argument  .

The warm water in the EP region along with D/L forcing would promote a -EPO+PNA was the argument .

The ridge setting up on the WC of HB and a trough in the SE was the argument .

 

You guys miss the entire evolution of the forecast/argument . 

[donsutherland1]

Interesting how they can predict a pattern change/flip, but at the start of December could not tell us this was going to be Sigma 8+ month, w/o a single day going below normal.    10 days in the 60's, plus a 72 for good measure.   Also that this Dec. would qualify for the top ten in November, when 138/148  Novembers do not!   They all said above normal of course.   Seven strong El Ninos since 1950 produced that result.   I want to know where the extra 7 degrees of record warmth came from.   Then sing me a lullaby of pattern change. 

Obviously Jan/Feb can not be +14 too----but is +3 really a change?   A flip means we have a negative month or some negative 30 day period----that ridges and troughs exchange rolls.  I hope they are right and not doing what the idiot experts on the business channels do----make wild guesses and hope they are right so they can be called the next gurus of Wall St.

Long-range forecasting is extremely difficult.

 

There was consensus that December would be very warm in the NYC area and across much of North America in the commercial forecasts that were made public. So that idea had some utility. But there are limitations. It's much easier to assess that a month will be warmer or colder than normal than to pin down with a great deal of precision how much warmer/colder than normal it will be. IMO, much still remains to be learned before long-term forecasts become more skillful in terms of details. Critical determinants of long-range patterns e.g., the AO still cannot be forecast reliably for more than a few weeks. Skill on predominant seasonal values is also weak, even as some progress has been made e.g., SAI has some correlation.

 

When it comes to a pattern change or flip, there's some differences in perception as to what one is discussing. Speaking for myself, my references usually refer to a change in the 500 mb pattern e.g., ridge/trough positions shift (change) or essentially a trough replaces a ridge (flip). FWIW, the NWS usually refers to the longwave pattern when discussing pattern changes. The sensible outcomes can differ e.g., not every trough is assured to provide colder than normal readings if the source regions of the air masses differ. Even when the pattern changes or flips, that does not automatically mean that warm anomalies are replaced by cold ones or vice versa.

 

Finally, I'd argue that forecasting companies e.g., WSI to use one example, are far more concerned about trying to get things right than gaining headlines. I fully realize that numerous Wall Street pundits are held to virtually no accountability by the media when what can amount to wild predictions (some recent examples included calls for hyperinflation, a crash in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar, etc.) made on, let's say CNBC, fail miserably. That lack of accountability serves to drown out the many much better ones when it comes to media coverage.

 

However, companies like WSI depend on revenue from clients, and if clients consistently lose money when hedging positions or even taking positions based on the forecasts, they can switch providers. Therefore, when paying clients are involved, there is typically more accountability from that end than from the media that does not pay various pundits for appearances. 

[WeatherFox]

Long-range forecasting is extremely difficult.

 

There was consensus that December would be very warm in the NYC area and across much of North America in the commercial forecasts that were made public. So that idea had some utility. But there are limitations. It's much easier to assess that a month will be warmer or colder than normal than to pin down with a great deal of precision how much warmer/colder than normal it will be. IMO, much still remains to be learned before long-term forecasts become more skillful in terms of details. Critical determinants of long-range patterns e.g., the AO still cannot be forecast reliably for more than a few weeks. Skill on predominant seasonal values is also weak, even as some progress has been made e.g., SAI has some correlation.

 

When it comes to a pattern change or flip, there's some differences in perception as to what one is discussing. Speaking for myself, my references usually refer to a change in the 500 mb pattern e.g., ridge/trough positions shift (change) or essentially a trough replaces a ridge (flip). FWIW, the NWS usually refers to the longwave pattern when discussing pattern changes. The sensible outcomes can differ e.g., not every trough is assured to provide colder than normal readings if the source regions of the air masses differ. Even when the pattern changes or flips, that does not automatically mean that warm anomalies are replaced by cold ones or vice versa.

 

Finally, I'd argue that forecasting companies e.g., WSI to use one example, are far more concerned about trying to get things right than gaining headlines. I fully realize that numerous Wall Street pundits are held to virtually no accountability by the media when what can amount to wild predictions (some recent examples included calls for hyperinflation, a crash in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar, etc.) made on, let's say CNBC, fail miserably. That lack of accountability serves to drown out the many much better ones when it comes to media coverage.

 

However, companies like WSI depend on revenue from clients, and if clients consistently lose money when hedging positions or even taking positions based on the forecasts, they can switch providers. Therefore, when paying clients are involved, there is typically more accountability from that end than from the media that does not pay various pundits for appearances. 

Very true, "Long-range forecasting is extremely difficult."  Thanks Don, for your usual excellent opinion and post.

[weatherpruf]

I think he admitted to having dyslexia before

Understandable, but why not have someone clean the copy up? You don't need an English major to do it, just someone who can fix the grammar and syntax a bit. F Scot Fitzgerald couldn't spell, but he could write well and had editors to clean up his errors. Maybe I ask too much, people read him for his forecasts, not to see artful prose....

[weatherpruf]

Very true, "Long-range forecasting is extremely difficult."  Thanks Don, for your usual excellent opinion and post.

I have been curious for awhile about your status as a pro forecaster....are you a meteorologist as well or a forecaster with some other training,  as one doesn't need to be a met to do forecasts, it' s not a licensed profession,

[MJO812]

DT is honking for a possible east coast snowstorm around Jan 9.

[PB GFI]

DT is honking for a possible east coast snowstorm around Jan 9.

 

There are 2 on the ensembles but they are 12 days out . I left it in banter . 

Will look serious if we get inside 6 days 

[Mophstymeo]

This is why I like Joe Cioffi. He doesn't honk.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WeatherFox]

I have been curious for awhile about your status as a pro forecaster....are you a meteorologist as well or a forecaster with some other training,  as one doesn't need to be a met to do forecasts, it' s not a licensed profession,

I had an undergraduate degree in physical geography, completed the Penn State Certificate in Weather Forecasting and did forecasting for a non-profit radio station in Pittsburgh, PA but am now retired in Florida.  I grew up in NYC so I chime in from time to time in this forum.  Like many here I had the love of the snowstorms while growing up and was also self taught.

[Morris]

Excellent write-up by Earthlight.

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/

[MJO812]

This is why I like Joe Cioffi. He doesn't honk.

Sent from my iPad

No but he also likes that period.

[DTWXRISK]

   look again SPARKY

 

This is why I like Joe Cioffi. He doesn't honk.


Sent from my iPad

[NycStormChaser]

   look again SPARKY

Sparky?

[uncle W]

I watched JB's video and he hinted the Summer could be like 1966 or 1988...I wonder what winter he's thinking of after that?...1966-67 or 1988-89?...big dilemma for him lol...

[Brian5671]

I watched JB's video and he hinted the Summer could be like 1966 or 1988...I wonder what winter he's thinking of after that?...1966-67 or 1988-89?...big dilemma for him lol...

88 was the big torch from what I remember and 88-89 winter sucked.  

[nynjpaweather]

I love the comments......  

[weatherpruf]

I had an undergraduate degree in physical geography, completed the Penn State Certificate in Weather Forecasting and did forecasting for a non-profit radio station in Pittsburgh, PA but am now retired in Florida.  I grew up in NYC so I chime in from time to time in this forum.  Like many here I had the love of the snowstorms while growing up and was also self taught.

Much obliged, and appreciate your input.

[WeatherFox]

Much obliged, and appreciate your input.

No problem - Happy New Year!

[Brian5671]

DT going ALEET! ALEET! over a day 10-12 threat?  

[MJO812]

DT going ALEET! ALEET! over a day 10-12 threat?  

It has support from the EPS

[Brian5671]

JB says his -1 call for NYC in January will bust-not cold enough

[tim]

...LC still on board..mentions cross polar flow from siberia may become involved..

also said this cold going nowhere..right thru march..all this to become reality 

after jan 8th.