Mophstymeo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Maybe but I don't get that vibe from his posts. I have no clue how people can be worried about now. This month was supposed to suck. Also, it's only December 13 lol. Read his latest update. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see. To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize. And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused. I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me? Sent from my iPad 11-12 was just surreal. There was non stop promises of major pattern changes coming and stratospheric warmings from literally mid November on and the models kept showing it at the end of their runs all winter long, it was believable for awhile then before we knew it, it was March and NYC was almost 90 degrees the last week of that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 LC, Steve D and Joe Cioffi loves what they see on the models in regards to the PV. They think a change is coming next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 LC, Steve D and Joe Cioffi loves what they see on the models in regards to the PV. They think a change is coming next month.Does Steve D still think the 2009 Nino was stronger than this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 LC, Steve D and Joe Cioffi loves what they see on the models in regards to the PV. They think a change is coming next month. ..true,but waiting for them to start 'caving'..i'll take what LC has to say to heart..the others are bigger weenies then all of us combined..looking forward to LC's newsletter today and while we are at it,lets see what JB has to say in his saturday update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 ..true,but waiting for them to start 'caving'..i'll take what LC has to say to heart..the others are bigger weenies then all of us combined..looking forward to LC's newsletter today and while we are at it,lets see what JB has to say in his saturday update. Just watched JB's video on Wxbell He said that the EL Nino is starting to weaken and this winter is looking similiar to 1957-1958. He is also saying how things are probabl y going to change right near the New Year or just after the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Just watched JB's video on Wxbell He said that the EL Nino is starting to weaken and this winter is looking similiar to 1957-1958. He is also saying how things are probabl y going to change right near the New Year or just after the New Year. Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Just watched JB's video on Wxbell He said that the EL Nino is starting to weaken and this winter is looking similiar to 1957-1958. He is also saying how things are probabl y going to change right near the New Year or just after the New Year. The 12/19 update? I don't see it on the website yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back. Just because it isn't cold and snowy on the east coast doesn't mean the pattern hasn't begun changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back. It's slowly changing and he's not alone in his thinking about the 2nd half of January pattern change. It seems like a lot of people on here are warm bias. The 12/19 update? I don't see it on the website yet. It's on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Just because it isn't cold and snowy on the east coast doesn't mean the pattern hasn't begun changing Bingo. I guess Steve D, Larry Cosgrove, DT, JB, Isotherm and Earthlight are wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I guess you're subscribed to wxbell because I dont see it. Post the link please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back. Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. Noted. It's not just him, it's a lot of other people on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I guess you're subscribed to wxbell because I dont see it. Post the link please. He took it down after realizing it was from last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 He took it down after realizing it was from last year It's still up there on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted. You thought the same last winter and look what happened? What makes you think the pattern is not going to change? Every model shows a stratospheric warming event coming up which weakens the PV. The Euro ensembles towards the New Year has a better pattern that we are in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December. Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted. I opined a few pages back in the banter thread I am plus 3 in January and I think you opined you are plus 6 is that correct ? You can see how the models are trending away from the big anomalies and back towards N . So as many of us have opined you will look for this to turn between the 10th and 15th and not Feb . You can see the height rises on the WC on both the GFS and Euro ensembles . 850 anomalies are plus 1 by day 15 and the plus 10s are gone and the bigger anomalies look to be shifting out west as a result of the increase heights on the WC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Joe Cioffi http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2015/12/19/weather-pattern-change-signs-grow-stronger/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 ..LC still on board..still saying by the 2nd week of jan.. great discussion by larry cosgrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 ..LC still on board..still saying by the 2nd week of jan.. great discussion by larry cosgrove. A lot of mets are on board for the 2nd week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 A lot of mets are on board for the 2nd week. I have been reading a bit about Judah Cohen, he predicted a mild winter in 13-14 I think and it was anything but, and I think this year he expected a harsh one, due to Siberian snow cover? Tried to find out more about his outlook for this year but if anyone can elaborate I'm interested.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I have been reading a bit about Judah Cohen, he predicted a mild winter in 13-14 I think and it was anything but, and I think this year he expected a harsh one, due to Siberian snow cover? Tried to find out more about his outlook for this year but if anyone can elaborate I'm interested.... I think his idea is interesting, but it might prove the old statistical axiom that correlation does not infer causation. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 A lot of mets are on board for the 2nd week. Joe Cioffi has certainly backed away from the ledge, but he's being very cautious. The models have tugged at his heartstrings one too many times. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I think his idea is interesting, but it might prove the old statistical axiom that correlation does not infer causation. Sent from my iPad True, but that doesn't mean correlation isn't a useful tool. In medicine a correlation can alert docs to look for things even if there is no clear causation. People use analogs here all the time and how predictive are they? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 True, but that doesn't mean correlation isn't a useful tool. In medicine a correlation can alert docs to look for things even if there is no clear causation. People use analogs here all the time and how predictive are they? Serious question. True. I think the difference here, though, is the data set being used. I don't have his info in front of me, but I think he only examined 30 or so winters. In the grand scheme of North American winters that's less than a drop in the bucket. I think that's why this El Niño is also throwing forecasters for a loop. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 JB getting excited-he's posting like a wild animal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 JB getting excited-he's posting like a wild animal Excited about what???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Excited about what???? Pattern going to what WB predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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