Mophstymeo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 December . Alas. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 It still shouldn't be used. It flip flops more than a fish out of water. JB disagrees. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 December . Are you falling off the colder 2nd half wagon now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Are you falling off the colder 2nd half wagon now?I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN.The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December . The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company. However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN. The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December . The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company. However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly. Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event. Thanks man , if the Euro seasonal blows up then so do I . (Plus 1 would fail if the CFS is right ) It's always possible , but I like the Euro JAMSTEC JMA UKMET retrogression @500 from J into M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 appears most forecasts won't be warm enough for December. Looks like NYC could be +4 to even +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 appears most forecasts won't be warm enough for December. Looks like NYC could be +4 to even +6 It'll be much warmer than that. NYC will crush their December record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 It'll be much warmer than that. NYC will crush their December record. From NYC south december has become more like a fall month instead of a winter one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 ..lee goldberg tonite..."next w/e cold..high temps NOT out of the 30's"... probably just a quick shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 ..lee goldberg tonite..."next w/e cold..high temps NOT out of the 30's"... probably just a quick shot. Maybe Saturday but probably not both days. The 18z GFS had a high temperature in the lower 40s next Sunday (the 12z GFS didn't). The ensembles also support the idea of of a maximum temperature in the 40s on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 ..lee goldberg tonite..."next w/e cold..high temps NOT out of the 30's"... probably just a quick shot. We may actually see a day or two of seasonable temperatures, which will probably feel like Siberia after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 ...no 'saturday summary' from bastardi yet..?? ...no 'daily update' since thursday..?? bailing? ...looking forward to larry cosgroves' discussion tonite..lets see if he's sticking to the 'on or about jan. 7th pattern change'.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 ...no 'saturday summary' from bastardi yet..?? ...no 'daily update' since thursday..?? bailing? ...looking forward to larry cosgroves' discussion tonite..lets see if he's sticking to the 'on or about jan. 7th pattern change'.. JB ain't bailing. You should know that by now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 ...no 'saturday summary' from bastardi yet..?? ...no 'daily update' since thursday..?? bailing? ...looking forward to larry cosgroves' discussion tonite..lets see if he's sticking to the 'on or about jan. 7th pattern change'.. 3 daily updates today alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I think Joe Cioffi is near throwing in the towel. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 JB ain't bailing. You should know that by now....If (if) his forecast busts, he won't bail until mid February at the earliest. He is always the last holdout, holds on right till the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 If (if) his forecast busts, he won't bail until mid February at the earliest. He is always the last holdout, holds on right till the bitter end truth, but its way too early to bail on anything. But I agree, JB holds on too long on a busted forecast. He looked silly calling for cold in Feb of 2012..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 JB ain't bailing. You should know that by now.... ...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he sounded a little less confident.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 ...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he sounded a little less confident.. To be fair, LC has been saying Jan 15 from the outset. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think Joe Cioffi is near throwing in the towel. Sent from my iPad No he's not. He's a little worried but not throwing in the towel . He still expects a change in January. I usually talk to him on a daily basis. He hates the pattern that we are in right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 EPAWA weather thinks mid January pattern change. The consensus from a lot of people have a mid to late January pattern change. To be fair, LC has been saying Jan 15 from the outset.Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 No he's not. He's a little worried but not throwing in the towel . He still expects a change in January. I usually talk to him on a daily basis. He hates the pattern that we are in right now lol. Maybe not throwing in the towel exactly, but he's definitely on suicide watch. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Maybe not throwing in the towel exactly, but he's definitely on suicide watch. Sent from my iPad Maybe but I don't get that vibe from his posts. I have no clue how people can be worried about now. This month was supposed to suck. Also, it's only December 13 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Maybe but I don't get that vibe from his posts. I have no clue how people can be worried about now. This month was supposed to suck. Also, it's only December 13 lol. True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see. To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize. And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused. I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see. To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize. And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused. I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me? Sent from my iPad The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 EPAWA weather thinks mid January pattern change. The consensus from a lot of people have a mid to late January pattern change. another month of +10 to +20 and this place will be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened. It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average.I meant 2001-02..they were similar winters though except for the October surprise in 2011Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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