Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Are you falling off the colder 2nd half wagon now?

I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN.

The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December .

The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company.

However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN.

The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December .

The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company.

However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly.

 

 

Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event.

Thanks man , if the Euro seasonal blows up then so do I . (Plus 1 would fail if the CFS is right ) It's always possible , but I like the Euro JAMSTEC JMA UKMET retrogression

@500 from J into M

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...no 'saturday summary' from bastardi yet..??

...no 'daily update' since thursday..??

bailing?

...looking forward to larry cosgroves' discussion tonite..lets see if he's sticking

to the 'on or about jan. 7th pattern change'..

3 daily updates today alone

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If (if) his forecast busts, he won't bail until mid February at the earliest. He is always the last holdout, holds on right till the bitter end

truth, but its way too early to bail on anything.   But I agree, JB holds on too long on a busted forecast.   He looked silly calling for cold in Feb of 2012.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB ain't bailing.  You should know that by now....

...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and

JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he

sounded a little less confident..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and

JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he

sounded a little less confident..

To be fair, LC has been saying Jan 15 from the outset.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No he's not. He's a little worried but not throwing in the towel . He still expects a change in January. I usually talk to him on a daily basis. He hates the pattern that we are in right now lol.

Maybe not throwing in the towel exactly, but he's definitely on suicide watch.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe but I don't get that vibe from his posts. I have no clue how people can be worried about now. This month was supposed to suck. Also, it's only December 13 lol.

True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see.

To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize.

And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused.

I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me?

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see.

To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize.

And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused.

I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me?

Sent from my iPad

The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened.

It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it

But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average.

I meant 2001-02..they were similar winters though except for the October surprise in 2011

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...