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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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Are you falling off the colder 2nd half wagon now?

I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN.

The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December .

The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company.

However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly.

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I saw a warm Nov and Dec back in Sept . This isn't the least bit concerning . Actually YAWN.

The question was when was the last time the CFS was right ? I said December .

The JMA and Euro seasonal were also warm for Dec , so the CFS had company.

However the guidance diverges once into Jan . Remember I am plus 1 for J thru M , I just have AN snowfall. All these calls can be found in the ENSO thread. So being plus 1 since Sept doesn't constitute me being cold , but I am colder than Dec . I am just not on the snowless winter and torch/97/98 bandwagon .....I just want to make sure you state my forecast correctly.

 

 

Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event.

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Truth. I've been following along since August. It was only really 2 people pushing the 97/98 style event.

Thanks man , if the Euro seasonal blows up then so do I . (Plus 1 would fail if the CFS is right ) It's always possible , but I like the Euro JAMSTEC JMA UKMET retrogression

@500 from J into M

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...no 'saturday summary' from bastardi yet..??

...no 'daily update' since thursday..??

bailing?

...looking forward to larry cosgroves' discussion tonite..lets see if he's sticking

to the 'on or about jan. 7th pattern change'..

3 daily updates today alone

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If (if) his forecast busts, he won't bail until mid February at the earliest. He is always the last holdout, holds on right till the bitter end

truth, but its way too early to bail on anything.   But I agree, JB holds on too long on a busted forecast.   He looked silly calling for cold in Feb of 2012.....

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JB ain't bailing.  You should know that by now....

...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and

JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he

sounded a little less confident..

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...true...only 1/2 kidding when i said that..with that said.. LC sticking to his guns and

JB holding out for THE CHANGE too..but added not until 30-40 days!! just my gut but he

sounded a little less confident..

To be fair, LC has been saying Jan 15 from the outset.

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No he's not. He's a little worried but not throwing in the towel . He still expects a change in January. I usually talk to him on a daily basis. He hates the pattern that we are in right now lol.

Maybe not throwing in the towel exactly, but he's definitely on suicide watch.

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Maybe but I don't get that vibe from his posts. I have no clue how people can be worried about now. This month was supposed to suck. Also, it's only December 13 lol.

True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see.

To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize.

And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused.

I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me?

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True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see.

To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize.

And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused.

I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me?

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The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened.

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The Euro already had a bomb for us a few weeks ago but never verified lol. I really hope this winter doesn't turn out to be like 2001-2002 when every person had a change to winter in the 2nd half but never happened.

It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it

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It was supposed to turn around christmas and did briefly and we had one 3-5" storm in January but that was it

But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average.

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But at least we had the October storm, I was in Boston for t he Jan storm and it was about 6 inches there. drove home to about 3-5 here in NJ. And even the 2013 winter was nothing special, just about average.

I meant 2001-02..they were similar winters though except for the October surprise in 2011

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