Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I can't wait until this busts. Something needs to shut this lunatic up. Nothing will happen. It'll get cold and nobody will call him out on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I can't wait until this busts. Something needs to shut this lunatic up. Is he nuts? Talk about an extremely gutsy and possibly incredibly dumb call. The upcoming cold would have to be more intense and longer lasting than the previous intense cold spell for him to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Is he nuts? Talk about an extremely gutsy and possibly incredibly dumb call. The upcoming cold would have to be more intense and longer lasting than the previous intense cold spell for him to be correct. This period is longer , more widespread and will rival it , if not surpass the early Jan spell . That said wouldn't have made that statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This period is longer , more widespread and will rival it , if not surpass the early Jan spell . That said wouldn't have made that statement It should be a longer spell of cold, but I'm not so sure it'll be as intense at this point though analogs strongly point to that outcome. He really shouldn't have, I mean really, as much economic impact as a major hurricane or something close to that is a huge stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It should be a longer spell of cold, but I'm not so sure it'll be as intense at this point though analogs strongly point to that outcome. He really shouldn't have, I mean really, as much economic impact as a major hurricane or something close to that is a huge stretch. The Euro has 3 nites of 20 below in Chicago and 1 or 2 here in KNYC 0 or below prob overdone A BIT here , but there`s no warm up in this package . Its Jan 21 - Feb 2 so far , and by D15 the maps don`t change much . ( check out the jan discussion look ) . Even if its a 3 week period and its severe and you include xtra home heating oil usuage , xtra Nat Gas usage , Nat Gas draw downs , Insurance claims, some Power failures etc you don't get to Major Hurricane damage . Shouldn't hav used that language IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This period is longer , more widespread and will rival it , if not surpass the early Jan spell . That said wouldn't have made that statement I know you follow him, but you have to agree this was a reckless statement. Especially from a markets-perspective. People will probably interpret this as legit and BOOM there go natty futures through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Is he nuts? Talk about an extremely gutsy and possibly incredibly dumb call. The upcoming cold would have to be more intense and longer lasting than the previous intense cold spell for him to be correct. It would have to be one of the worst cold outbreaks in modern history. Worse than 94. Worse than 85. 19th Century type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It would have to be one of the worst cold outbreaks in modern history. Worse than 94. Worse than 85. 19th Century type stuff. And I don't know what the Euro LR shows but the gfs would suggest more alternating mild and cold periods in the January 20-February 5 time-frame with troughs digging a bit further west than ideal as demonstrated by current 18z gfs run (PNA going + to -). I just don't see the cold even matching the one we've experienced earlier this month (near 0 degrees) let alone surpassing it when it comes to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I know you follow him, but you have to agree this was a reckless statement. Especially from a markets-perspective. People will probably interpret this as legit and BOOM there go natty futures through the roof. Hey Chris , You know what it is that I do , I was with the head of CITI risk today he put a piece out where he thinks Nat Gas has a 2 in 3 chance of going to 6 ( 4.60 ish now ) if the next 3 draws are records which be an epic move in 3 weeks . So they see they BOOM potential . He`s my bud , but I disagree with the analogy , The country got thru 77 and 85 and every other cold outbreak and we will do fine here This cold wave is wire to wire . there are no warm ups here . The PV is trapped . The Ensembles really show you this is better ( or worse ) than early Jan when you total it up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I agree that he shouldn't have used the hurricane analogy, but the upcoming pattern does look extreme and when you consider how the public, at least up in Toronto, freaked out about the last cold snap, with the polar vortex becoming the latest fad on twitter, you can see how people can get excitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It would have to be one of the worst cold outbreaks in modern history. Worse than 94. Worse than 85. 19th Century type stuff. Who knows? Maybe this will rival the great arctic outbreaks of 1857 and 1859? J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hey Chris , You know what it is that I do , I was with the head of CITI risk today he put a piece out where he thinks Nat Gas has a 2 in 3 chance of going to 6 ( 4.60 ish now ) if the next 3 draws are records which be an epic move in 3 weeks . So they see they BOOM potential . He`s my bud , but I disagree with the analogy , The country got thru 77 and 85 and every other cold outbreak and we will do fine here This cold wave is wire to wire . there are no warm ups here . The PV is trapped . The Ensembles really show you this is better ( or worse ) than early Jan when you total it up . I personally agree, but the thing is that, culturally, both Canada and the U.S. have changed since those years. People freak out about every weather extreme these days, seemingly thinking that the world is falling apart. People have less patience with cold these days as we're always such a rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 and if he doesnt? Christ, when has JB ever called for historic warmth in the winter? I'll take never for $500 Alex He called for a torch for south of new England in 2007, and got it right, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I personally agree, but the thing is that, culturally, both Canada and the U.S. have changed since those years. People freak out about every weather extreme these days, seemingly thinking that the world is falling apart. People have less patience with cold these days as we're always such a rush. We're also less experienced with handling extreme cold because it simply doesn't happen very often or it's often very brief. There were numerous pipes that burst around here and it was the first time I could remember where starting the car was a bit troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 In a weak economy with many people struggling to put food on the table and 92 million people not working...many cities and towns cutting back even on salt it's certainly not so far fetched I think. It costs more to heat your home or building then to cool it, so that's a big hit in your pocket alone. Take a look at this article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 No doubt it hurts the economy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 We're also less experienced with handling extreme cold because it simply doesn't happen very often or it's often very brief. There were numerous pipes that burst around here and it was the first time I could remember where starting the car was a bit troubling. In a weak economy with many people struggling to put food on the table and 92 million people not working...many cities and towns cutting back even on salt it's certainly not so far fetched I think. It costs more to heat your home or building then to cool it, so that's a big hit in your pocket alone. Take a look at this article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 No doubt it hurts the economy... Both of these posts were excellent. Again, I agree that JB went over-the-top, but for the above reasons, his concerns do have merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Take a look this:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Who knows? Maybe this will rival the great arctic outbreaks of 1857 and 1859? J/K Well, actually, jb was comparing sst anomalies for this year vs 1916-17. Couple days ago I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Well, actually, jb was comparing sst anomalies for this year vs 1916-17. Couple days ago I think he quoted 1917-18...coldest winter on record for NYC...if you look at mei for that year it was a good la nina year... it's not exactly the same sst's... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I can't wait until this busts. Something needs to shut this lunatic up. ...wow,pretty extreme there pazzo..love JB..does he go over the top?..sure he does..but you gotta love his passion for the weather..why would you want him to bust anyway? guess you want it to be sunny and mild for the rest of winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 ...wow,pretty extreme there pazzo..love JB..does he go over the top?..sure he does..but you gotta love his passion for the weather..why would you want him to bust anyway? guess you want it to be sunny and mild for the rest of winter ! Big difference between passion and potentially irresponsible hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Big difference between passion and potentially irresponsible hype Is it any less irresponsible for some forecasters to downplay what could potentially be a period of hardship for many? Just saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is it any less irresponsible for some forecasters to downplay what could potentially be a period of hardship for many? Just saying.. If indeed a serious life threatening outbreak is imminent and forecasters don't do a good job relaying that information to the public then yes. However as it stands now there's no reason to warn the public when its not a certainty and still a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is it any less irresponsible for some forecasters to downplay what could potentially be a period of hardship for many? Just saying.. It's a big jump from forecasting a significant cold outbreak and speculating on infrastructure readiness and billions of $$ of impact to the national economy. Ptreety irresponsible. Jeff bastardi has a bully pulpit and lots of media exposure...with his connections to the energy industry if makes you wonder what are his motives is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's a big jump from forecasting a significant cold outbreak and speculating on infrastructure readiness and billions of $$ of impact to the national economy. Ptreety irresponsible. Jeff bastardi has a bully pulpit and lots of media exposure...with his connections to the energy industry if makes you wonder what are his motives is. ..its joe..not jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's a big jump from forecasting a significant cold outbreak and speculating on infrastructure readiness and billions of $$ of impact to the national economy. Ptreety irresponsible. Jeff bastardi has a bully pulpit and lots of media exposure...with his connections to the energy industry if makes you wonder what are his motives is. I think that's a little harsh! You think he tries to manipulate the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's a big jump from forecasting a significant cold outbreak and speculating on infrastructure readiness and billions of $$ of impact to the national economy. Ptreety irresponsible. Jeff bastardi has a bully pulpit and lots of media exposure...with his connections to the energy industry if makes you wonder what are his motives is. He advises Nat Gas and Energy traders , Draws move markets and that`s determined by usage . Not his analysis of Models If he makes a statement like this and gets PMs Long and he`s not right he will not have those clients for long . Its what he believes . The disagreement with most is the Analogy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think that's a little harsh! You think he tries to manipulate the market? Totes. Just put 1 and two together, as tenman Johnson would say. His audience tends to be already a bit gullible and prone to over-reactionness, so it just feels bad that he would use this kind of speak when it's speculative on doom and gloomy outcomes on weathers that is over a few weeks out there. He should have the twitter revoked if he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is it any less irresponsible for some forecasters to downplay what could potentially be a period of hardship for many? Just saying.. In case you haven't noticed, we live in the 21st Century. It would take a pretty epic blast to cause "a period of hardship for many". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hey Chris , You know what it is that I do , I was with the head of CITI risk today he put a piece out where he thinks Nat Gas has a 2 in 3 chance of going to 6 ( 4.60 ish now ) if the next 3 draws are records which be an epic move in 3 weeks . So they see they BOOM potential . He`s my bud , but I disagree with the analogy , The country got thru 77 and 85 and every other cold outbreak and we will do fine here This cold wave is wire to wire . there are no warm ups here . The PV is trapped . The Ensembles really show you this is better ( or worse ) than early Jan when you total it up . I hear you man, I gotta pop down and visit soon, haven't been by y'all's office in a long time. But yea, I mean I guess any hint of this type of outbreak in the models is going to put upward pressure on natty gas as a ton of commodities traders now follow these models closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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