MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 JB in his latest video states that the east should watch out near December 1 for a big east coast storm with the typhoon pumping up the western ridge and a trough in the east allowing cold air into the east. Should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Interesting statement by JB: Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 JB in his latest video states that the east should watch out near December 1 for a big east coast storm with the typhoon pumping up the western ridge and a trough in the east allowing cold air into the east. Should be interesting to see what happens. Doesn't look all that interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Doesn't look all that interesting The comment, not the map. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 The comment, not the map. Sent from my iPad Yeah I was responding to the comment JB made about a storm around the 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Doesn't look all that interesting Nope, not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nope, not anymorethat's because jb is a garbage charlatan and you know nothing about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 that's because jb is a garbage charlatan and you know nothing about weather JB most likely knows alot more about weather than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 JB most likely knows alot more about weather than you do. Yes and he makes much more money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 JB loves the pattern towards the end of the month. Winter might be starting soon, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 that's because jb is a garbage charlatan and you know nothing about weather what a dumb post. While he hypes and has a cold bias, he's a master at pattern recognition and is a very successful at what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 that's because jb is a garbage charlatan and you know nothing about weatherI really don't know why anyone pays attention to JB anymore, the only reason he has been relevant over the last 2 years is because he called for cold and like a broken clock he was right twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Update from Earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/28/five-things-to-expect-during-the-upcoming-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Update from Earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/28/five-things-to-expect-during-the-upcoming-winter/ Great writeup there. let's hope the pattern change is around Dec 25th and not Jan 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 hahah classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 JB in his evening update mentioned about the SOI crashing and that the models have to adjust to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 JB in his evening update mentioned about the SOI crashing and that the models have to adjust to that.It's clear as day. He is dead set on riding the cold and snowy train like Casey Jones this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 It's clear as day. He is dead set on riding the cold and snowy train like Casey Jones this winter He thinks the pattern should change in 2-3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31 Well, we'll find out soon enough. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31 Just like last season, I feel mets are rushing the change. It could just as easily be delayed until mid to late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Just like last season, I feel mets are rushing the change. It could just as easily be delayed until mid to late January. Larry Cosgrove agrees. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 He thinks the pattern should change in 2-3 weeksI wish him luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 He thinks the pattern should change in 2-3 weeks Double that time frame and maybe I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 It's clear as day. He is dead set on riding the cold and snowy train like Casey Jones this winter You mean the same way some were pushing an EAST based NINO this year ? jk. Lets tally the charlatans work up , he had a great winter last year and was spot on with the westward migration on this years BASIN WIDE nino . Yeh , I think I would pay attention this time around . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Double that time frame and maybe I'd agree. I agree , I think it's closer to Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 It's clear as day. He is dead set on riding the cold and snowy train like Casey Jones this winter Big changes in the Pacific can sometimes be a precursor to larger-scale hemispheric pattern changes. In 2-3 weeks, my guess is that we'll see some better indications as to whether a pattern change is likely. The very strong polar vortex responsible for the current AO+ regime won't fall apart quickly. It may decay over time with some fleeting negative values occurring after mid-month, but any prolonged blocking probably won't occur until January. The current vortex is not as strong as that which developed in late November-early December 2006, but it is impressive. One thing to watch for is the return of EPO- values. Currently, the EPO is forecast to go positive and then stay mainly positive through mid-December. A return of significant negative values would provide a good indication that a colder pattern could develop. With a predominantly PNA+ pattern, the EPO- could be enough to bring about the cold. Also, the warmest ENSO anomalies should drift westward with time if some of the guidance is correct. That kind of forcing could also increase prospects of a pattern change. If everything comes together, AO-, EPO-, PNA+ and the anticipated shift in ENSO warm anomalies, along with a gradually weakening El Niño event, mid-January and February might have a lot of winter potential. The January 15-February 4, 1966 timeframe featured an AO-/PNA+/EPO- combination. It was colder than normal and 14.7" snow fell in NYC. Even more snow fell elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region. Philadelphia received 20.4" and Washington, DC picked up 23.0". There's still no assurance that everything will come together, but it can't be ruled out just yet. For January, an AO-/PNA+ pattern is the most favorable one for significant snowstorms for the New York City area. Since 1950, 65% of snowstorms that dumped 6" or more snow in NYC occurred when the AO was negative and the PNA was positive. All of January's 10" or greater snowstorms occurred when the AO was negative and the PNA was positive. Right now, we're waiting for the first pattern change. And, even if it unfolds toward the close of the month or early January, it might be transient. That would not necessarily mean that a more wintry pattern couldn't lock in afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 the pna plays a big roll for NYC snowstorms...reds are plus ao/nao/-pna...The blizzard in Dec. 1960, the blizzard in Feb. 1978, February 1983, January 1996 were all in the black... .AO/PNA/NAO/Enso at the time...snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI.... 12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina 11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral- 11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral- 12" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral- .............................................................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 snowfall during el nino years or neutral positive years...Above average years, near average years and below average years...last year and 1992-93 are the only decent winters with the ao averaging on the plus side for all four months...If December is on the plus side it probably will be mild...if it turns negative in February like in 82-83 we could see a big storm along the coast...some of the bottom feeders had one good month or storm after January when the ao went negative...... el nino winters's AO monthly ave December to March...year..........temp...snowfall.......Dec.......Jan.........Feb........Mar....... ave 2014-15...31.7....50.3"......+0.413...+1.092...+1.043...+1.837...+1.092.2009-10...33.8....51.4".......-3.413... -2.587... -4.226... -0.432... -2.6642004-05...35.4....41.0"......+1.230...+0.356... -1.271... -1.348... -0.2582003-04...32.4....42.6"......+0.265... -1.686... -1.528...+0.318... -0.6582002-03...31.2....49.3".......-1.592... -0.472...+0.128...+0.933... -0.2511993-94...31.2....53.4".......-0.104... -0.288... -0.862...+1.881...+0.1571977-78...30.3....50.7".......-0.240... -0.347... -3.014...+0.502... -0.8001968-69...32.9....30.2".......-0.783... -2.967... -3.114... -1.582... -2.1121963-64...33.3....44.7".......-1.178...+0.385... -0.575... -0.558... -0.4821957-58...33.3....44.7"......+0.828... -1.438... -2.228... -2.522... -1.340.ten year average...-0.732middle years................................................................................1951-52...37.0....19.7"......+1.987...+0.368... -1.747... -1.859... -0.3131965-66...35.9....21.4"......+0.163... -3.232... -1.438... -0.911... -1.3571969-70...30.5....25.6".......-1.856... -2.412... -1.325... -2.084... -1.9191976-77...28.5....24.5".......-2.074... -3.767... -2.010...+0.344... -1.8771982-83...37.9....27.2"......+0.967...+1.359... -1.806... -0.567... -0.0121986-87...34.8....23.1"......+0.060... -1.148... -1.473... -1.746... -1.0771987-88...34.7....19.1".......-0.534...+0.265... -1.066... -0.197... -0.3831990-91...39.2....24.9"......+1.277...+0.723... -0.876... -0.527...+0.1491992-93...35.0....24.5"......+1.627...+3.495...+0.184...+0.764...+1.518...nine year average...-0.586least snowy.......................................................................................1952-53...38.1....15.1".......-1.827... -1.036... -0.249...+1.068... -0.5111953-54...37.4....15.8"......+0.575... -0.148... -0.181...+0.246...+0.1811958-59...30.9....13.0"...... -1.687... -2.013...+2.544...+1.442...+0.0721972-73...35.8......2.8"......+1.238...+1.232...+0.786...+0.537...+0.9481979-80...35.4....12.8"......+1.295... -2.066... -0.934... -1.433... -0.7871991-92...37.2....12.6"......+1.613...+0.550...+1.222...+0.984...+1.0671994-95...37.1....11.8"......+0.894... -0.154...+1.429...+0.393...+0.6411997-98...39.6......5.5".......-0.071... -2.081... -0.183... -0.254... -0.6472006-07...37.3....12.4"......+2.282...+2.034... -1.307...+1.182...+1.048..nine year average...+0.212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 the pna plays a big roll for NYC snowstorms...reds are plus ao/nao/-pna...The blizzard in Dec. 1960, the blizzard in Feb. 1978, February 1983, January 1996 were all in the black... I agree about the PNA. It's very important, especially for January. Once one gets into the second half of February, the wavelengths are beginning to shorten and a PNA- becomes more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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