Weathergun Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I'm going to work can't post links right now. Everything I said is true, fact. The PDO was positive in 97, it didn't go negative until spring 98 and Nino region 3.4 is now over +2.7C. I'm not making this up. I don't know what Steve is talking about. To say it will not have an effect on the 500mb longwave pattern with a Nino this strong is just crazy and defies logic, nature and physics You are correct the PDO values were positive. But they did drop by December, before rising again in Feb. This doesn't mean I thin 97-98 nino winter: 1997 0.23 0.28 0.65 1.05 1.83 2.76 2.35 2.79 2.19 1.61 1.12 0.671998 0.83 1.56 2.01 1.27 0.70 0.40 -0.04 -0.22 -1.21 -1.39 -0.52 -0.44 http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I believe this is earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/02/winter-forecast-2015-2016/ Make sure to give credit to all who worked hard on this.Earthlight, Dsnowx and Weathergun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Let me explain why this is not a Super El Nino. Look, I get that you see this Kelvin Wave induced spike and say this HAS to be a Super El Nino, but you miss one key point, duration. I use the ONI, that chart you see with each ENSO report from the CPC, to measure El Nino and La Nina events. The reason being is that it irons out these short terms spikes and crashes to give you a clear picture of how an ENSO event, warm or cold, influences the atmosphere. This process has been used for over 40 years and I see no reason why I should stop. The current ONI, which will be updated next week for October, is at 1.5. The El Nino from 1997/98 was at 2.3 for not just one month but for 3 months, which would have a significant impact on the 500 MB weather pattern over North America, no doubt. That El Nino also featured a -PDO period and below normal SSTA conditions over the western Atlantic. This year, complete opposite. So as you can see, the two years are not comparable at all. I think the focus has to be less on whether it's technically a Super El Nino or not, and more on where the tropical forcing is, where the warmest anomalies are, and how that is going to affect the global circulations down the road over the next few months. Monitoring that will have much more major implications than whether or not this El Nino crosses a certain number threshold or doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 :Shakes head: Wrong. This is why I don't do forums. Alright, go ahead and believe what you like. If anyone challenges you then you don't engage....? "This is why I don't do forums." You must be "above" the rest of the posters in not just these forums but all the rest as well. I read your stuff sometimes and it makes me cringe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/nj-strong-weather-2015-2016-winter.html?m=1 This was an excellent read Agreed, really highlighted every significant factor and all possible uncertainties. I guess consensus says warm to very warm Nov/Dec, neutral to slightly positive Jan, and colder Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2015/11/05/winter-predictions-weather-forecasting-models-el-nino-nao/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 JB loves the pattern towards the end of the month. Winter might be starting soon, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 JB loves the pattern towards the end of the month. Winter might be starting soon, All I know is that I can't stand this summer-in-fall nonsense. All this sunshine and warmth is depressing! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The AO is partying like it's 1929 and is about to CRASH! ...larry cosgrove concurs..looks like a nice cool down coming..he also agrees with CFSv2 which shows december to be toasty around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ...larry cosgrove concurs..looks like a nice cool down coming..he also agrees with CFSv2 which shows december to be toasty around here.. I don't see much of a cool down relative to climo. We'll probably still be on the positive side of things. I guess we're also ignoring the fact that the AO has yet to peak and will be near +5 which has to be close to a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ...larry cosgrove concurs..looks like a nice cool down coming..he also agrees with CFSv2 which shows december to be toasty around here.. Concurs about what? The AO is dropping like a rock. NAO also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Concurs about what? The AO is dropping like a rock. NAO also -AO and -NAO does you no good with the +EPO floodgates wide open and pacific maritime air flooding your entire source region (Canada) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 concurs means agrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 concurs means agrees.... ..ty NYY_2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 ..ty NYY_2. lol. i thought there was a misunderstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The CFSv2 says it will be above normal every month for its entire range of 8 months, thru July! The winter itself (DJF)should be 3-5degs. above normal here and wet. December could be off scale till about the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The CFSv2 says it will be above normal every month for its entire range of 8 months, thru July! The winter itself (DJF)should be 3-5degs. above normal here and wet. December could be off scale till about the 20th. The CFS didn't do too well last year. Here's hoping for a repeat performance. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The CFSv2 says it will be above normal every month for its entire range of 8 months, thru July! The winter itself (DJF)should be 3-5degs. above normal here and wet. December could be off scale till about the 20th. I only use the CFS if I am sad and am need of a good laugh . It`s a ^&*( garbage model . PERIOD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 http://www.newser.com/story/215737/record-siberia-snowfall-could-be-bad-news-for-us.html LC and many mets agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Hurricane Schwartz is going with a really warm December and January with Winter really kicking into gear in February. He has 30-38 inches of snow for the winter for Philly.http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=347073842& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 JB just posted. He is loving how regions 1 and 2 are cooling off and 3 and 4 are warming up. He is still saying that his map that he made for the winter still looks great to him with winter weather starting in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Joe Cioffi stated in his blog that the key to the cold air having some staying power will depend on whether the vortex that forms in Canada stays in place and if the vortex over the northwest Pacific doesn't set up as a dominant player. The answer to that should be a bit clearer in another week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Steve D will be on fox 5 news at 10 to discuss the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Steve D was just talking on Fox 5. He said get ready for a wild winter. This winter is going to start off warm but then transition into a cold and snowy 2nd half of winter with above average snowfall. He was also explaining how the El Nino is shifting to a more basin wide look and how region 1 and 2 are cooling and 3 and 4 are warming up. He expects interior areas to see well above normal snowfall and the coast to see the same with a lot of ice and sleet threats as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Steve D was just talking on Fox 5. He said get ready for a wild winter. This winter is going to start off warm but then transition into a cold and snowy 2nd half of winter with above average snowfall. He was also explaining how the El Nino is shifting to a more basin wide look and how region 1 and 2 are cooling and 3 and 4 are warming up. He expects interior areas to see well above normal snowfall and the coast to see the same with a lot of ice and sleet threats as well. Yeah I just watched it. Pretty good explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Isn't that the same Steve D. everyone always trashes on here during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yeah I just watched it. Pretty good explanation. It was well thought out. I am pumped up for this winter. Isn't that the same Steve D. everyone always trashes on here during winter. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Video of Steve Dhttp://www.fox5ny.com/news/50255617-story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 JB says cold blast coming around 12/1 or so, centered on the Midwest, but still cold east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 JB says cold blast coming around 12/1 or so, centered on the Midwest, but still cold east. JB on Twitter ECMWF ensemble means for days 11-14IMO promoting snow threat from southern high plains thru midwest into n ma and ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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