Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

[PB GFI]

For HM who thinks this guy is an easy mark , only to have to eat %^&*( AGAIN !!!!!

 

THANKS PAULIE, GREAT MJO CASE STUDY!

 

May 31 11:39 AM

 

Alerted by the official Weatherbell.com blog observer to a challenge about my MJO ideas on evolving ENSO is really allowing me to drive home 2 points. The first is that when the MJO amplitude is contradicting the same models temp forecast, then one of the two is wrong, most likely the temps. Why? Because it takes a lot going on to force the MJO into such great amplitude and if it going to do that, then a correction to the forecast should be made. We have had 3 cases this month where large scale observation of the antics of the weather in the tropical Pacific have helped us tone down what was a large scale move to buy the warmth of the models. In conversing with one of my clients, he noted that a run up in NG may have been caused by people buying so much large scale warmth. Truth be told, the warmth in the east was counterbalanced by the cold in the Plains and west, especially Texas. But you have witnessed me warning about the cold fighting back, and this is now going to be the 3rd time as the Euro forecast is getting cooler and cooler in the longer term, as I showed on video this morning.

 

[PB GFI]

The second point is the June amplitude of the MJO when ENSO events are evolving, so it appears this will join the pack we have shown (1997,2002, 2009). Two weeks ago NO MODELING was showing the MJO gaining amplitude like this. So it was something that if one was looking at previous ENSO events, one would be looking for, and then in advising people, would make sure they were watching for it, too. When the amplitude of this feature gets to where it looks like this, one had better sit up and take notice, for it is a tool that can be used to correct the model's ideas in features away from its origins.

[donsutherland1]

As there seems to be some debate as to whether a strong ENSO signal suppresses or amplifies the MJO amplitude in June, I compared the emergent 1997-98 super El Niño to the 1981-2010 baseline. The empirical data shows that the emergent ENSO event amplified the MJO's amplitude.

 

 

In fact, all 11 of the highest MJO amplitude days during the June 1981-2010 period occurred in June 1997.

 

The above data would suggest that the forecast high amplitude for the MJO is a product of the still developing El Niño event. Indeed, WSI's own atmospheric ENSO index also supports the notion that the atmosphere is responding to the El Niño.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGHXcqAUoAA7prQ.png:large

 

In sum, the blocked text attributed to Joe Bastardi's linking the high amplitude MJO to the El Niño appears consistent with the empirical data.

 

In a broader perspective, El Niño events should lead to increased tropical forcing and higher MJO amplitude. More expansive warm water anomalies produce greater lift, when the atmosphere and ocean couple, and greater convection. The opposite is true during La Niña events. For example, if one looked at June 1988, the average MJO amplitude was 0.983, 53.3% days (134% of the 1981-2010 baseline frequency) had an amplitude below 1 and 47.7% days had an amplitude at or above 1 (77% of the 1981-2010 baseline frequency). June 1988 saw no days with an amplitude of 2 or above.

[bluewave]

 

For HM who thinks this guy is an easy mark , only to have to eat %^&*( AGAIN !!!!!

 

THANKS PAULIE, GREAT MJO CASE STUDY!

 

May 31 11:39 AM

 

Alerted by the official Weatherbell.com blog observer to a challenge about my MJO ideas on evolving ENSO is really allowing me to drive home 2 points. The first is that when the MJO amplitude is contradicting the same models temp forecast, then one of the two is wrong, most likely the temps. Why? Because it takes a lot going on to force the MJO into such great amplitude and if it going to do that, then a correction to the forecast should be made. We have had 3 cases this month where large scale observation of the antics of the weather in the tropical Pacific have helped us tone down what was a large scale move to buy the warmth of the models. In conversing with one of my clients, he noted that a run up in NG may have been caused by people buying so much large scale warmth. Truth be told, the warmth in the east was counterbalanced by the cold in the Plains and west, especially Texas. But you have witnessed me warning about the cold fighting back, and this is now going to be the 3rd time as the Euro forecast is getting cooler and cooler in the longer term, as I showed on video this morning.

 

 

 

What was the original argument about? The GFS was also too warm and has now backed off.

[PB GFI]

What was the original argument about? The GFS was also too warm and has now backed off.

A post from snowhole19.

 

 

HM just blasted the whole joe bastardi bs argument about the lack of mjo waves meaning weaker el nino on twitter. He made him and the others following that thinking look silly. 

(HM  ARGUMENT )  Strong El Niños actually greatly suppress the mjo not make it stronger as you can read in detail on his twitter. When will joe bastardi and his minions ever learn? He will do and say everything in his power to deny reality even to the point of giving bad info and making himself look stupid just so he can predict a cold and snowy winter. He makes himself look delusional at times. I don't know why people waste their money on his propaganda and nonsense to make a buck. I'd pay for HM's blogs anyday

 

 OOOPS  I wonder if HM will apologize to his minions for making them look stupid for carrying his water 

 

 

 

 

From DON S

 

 In fact, all 11 of the highest MJO amplitude days during the June 1981-2010 period occurred in June 1997.

 

The above data would suggest that the forecast high amplitude for the MJO is a product of the still developing El Niño event. Indeed, WSI's own atmospheric ENSO index also supports the notion that the atmosphere is responding to the El Niño.

 

In sum, the blocked text attributed to Joe Bastardi's linking the high amplitude MJO to the El Niño appears consistent with the empirical data.

https://pbs.twimg.co...A7prQ.png:large

 

[donsutherland1]

The argument cited in Message #2194: Strong El Niños actually greatly suppress the mjo not make it stronger as you can read in detail on his twitter.

 

That argument is not correct. Warm tropical anomalies increase convection, they don't suppress it. Hence, MJO amplitudes tend to be higher with El Niño events.

 

The empirical data backs that up. Not surprisingly, June 1997 saw very high MJO amplitudes with that month accounting for the 11 highest daily June amplitudes in the 1981-2010 period.

[bluewave]

^^^

Thanks, guys. Not sure why someone would argue that enhanced MJO activity can't be

related to  El Ninos.

 

http://www.usclivar.org/working-groups/mjo/science/influences-of-mjo-on-enso

 

 

Role of the MJO

 

The strongest, long-lasting and eastward moving equatorial WWE are mostly associated with the MJO.  These are all characteristics of WWE needed to efficiently generate oceanic Kelvin waves (Hendon et al. 1998). In addition, WWE associated with the MJO exhibit a basin-scale structure and they undergo strong interannual variability, both essential to ENSO responses.

Many observations have shown anomalously strong MJO activities prior to and during the onset of ENSO warm events (Fig. 1). Seasonal mean MJO activity tends to lead ENSO SST by 6 – 12 months (Zhang and Gottschalck 2002). Their strongest lag correlation occurs between the MJO in boreal spring and ENSO SST in winter. Theories have predicted that the most optimal spatial structure of stochastic forcing of ENSO is similar to that of the MJO (Moore and Kleeman 1999). Numerical simulations have demonstrated that, when models are stable, realistic ENSO variability can be generated by stochastic forcing derived from observations (Fig. 2). The MJO is subject to modulation by ENSO. Stochastic forcing on ENSO is therefore a two-way interaction between the MJO and ENSO.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, I broadened my sample to include the entire June 1974-June 2014 period for which the MJO is available. The following were the outcomes.

 

[donsutherland1]

MJO amplitude update...

 

Consistent with the link between El Niño and greater MJO amplitude, the MJO's amplitude reached 2.093146 yesterday. As shown in the chart in the preceding message, MJO amplitudes of 2 or greater are nearly 60% more frequent during moderate or greater El Niño conditions (May-June MEI of +1 or above) than the historical average for June and about 75% more frequent than when the May-June MEI is negative.   

[PB GFI]

MJO amplitude update...

 

Consistent with the link between El Niño and greater MJO amplitude, the MJO's amplitude reached 2.093146 yesterday. As shown in the chart in the preceding message, MJO amplitudes of 2 or greater are nearly 60% more frequent during moderate or greater El Niño conditions (May-June MEI of +1 or above) than the historical average for June and about 75% more frequent than when the May-June MEI is negative.   

[snowman19]

I'll give JB this, he called the AMO long term phase change to negative. April and May had the lowest negative AMO numbers ever recorded. If you look at the latest SST maps, the Atlantic Ocean is ice cold, so the new -AMO is here. Unfortunately cold AMO isn't anywhere near as favorable for -NAO like warm +AMO is....

[Brian5671]

I'll give JB this, he called the AMO long term phase change to negative. April and May had the lowest negative AMO numbers ever recorded. If you look at the latest SST maps, the Atlantic Ocean is ice cold, so the new -AMO is here. Unfortunately cold AMO isn't anywhere near as favorable for -NAO like warm +AMO is....

I'd say he's spot on with that call, what's surprising is that it's here a bit early given longer past episodes of the AMO phases. Hopefully this does not portend a return to 1980's and 1990's lousy snowfall winters which were during the last phase of the -AMO

[PB GFI]

I'll give JB this, he called the AMO long term phase change to negative. April and May had the lowest negative AMO numbers ever recorded. If you look at the latest SST maps, the Atlantic Ocean is ice cold, so the new -AMO is here. Unfortunately cold AMO isn't anywhere near as favorable for -NAO like warm +AMO is....

 

 

Another LR forecast from JB is all that warm water in the EPO region will be gone next year , so after the winter of 15/16 looking to be below normal temp wise , he believes the winter of 16/17 is well above average on the EC.  

 

The newest CFSV2 forecast in the 3.4 region does peak at 2.5 but that is down from last month forecast of 3 .

[snowman19]

Another LR forecast from JB is all that warm water in the EPO region will be gone next year , so after the winter of 15/16 looking to be below normal temp wise , he believes the winter of 16/17 is well above average on the EC.

The newest CFSV2 forecast in the 3.4 region does peak at 2.5 but that is down from last month forecast of 3 .

Given how severely negative the AMO has gotten, if you want a cold and snowy winter, probably for awhile too, you better make a wish, hope and a prayer that the north PAC teleconnections and ENSO cooperate. Right now, there is no semblance at all, whatsoever, of a tripole setup in the Atlantic, which is what you want to see this time of year if you want -NAO in the winter, case studies have shown this. The Atlantic Ocean is a freezer right now thanks to the -AMO. Also, the NAO and AO go through their long term negative and positive phases together. The last couple winters, it would appear they have gone long term positive. Also, look at the arctic, snow and sea ice buildup is increasing and melt is decreasing, it's also getting colder. That is a bi product of both +AO/strong stratospheric polar vortex and -AMO. When the arctic to our north is very cold, you can bet the AO is positive.

[PB GFI]

Given how severely negative the AMO has gotten, if you want a cold and snowy winter, probably for awhile too, you better make a wish, hope and a prayer that the north PAC teleconnections and ENSO cooperate. Right now, there is no semblance at all, whatsoever, of a tripole setup in the Atlantic, which is what you want to see this time of year if you want -NAO in the winter, case studies have shown this. The Atlantic Ocean is a freezer right now thanks to the -AMO. Also, the NAO and AO go through their long term negative and positive phases together. The last couple winters, it would appear they have gone long term positive. Also, look at the arctic, snow and sea ice buildup is increasing and melt is decreasing, it's also getting colder. That is a bi product of both +AO/strong stratospheric polar vortex and -AMO. When the arctic to our north is very cold, you can bet the AO is positive.

 

I have come to terms with probably seeing another winter with a POS NAO  . I don`t see a NEG NAO with a NEG AMO .

 

However 1 more year of a NEG EPO with a warmer 3.4 than 1.2 region both declining once past Nov .

If we build the ridge the jet off Asia seeds Canada . Look at the  NAO ver FEB - APR . 

I like the PAC to run the temp scheme again . 

 

 

[bluewave]

The forecast crew working with the CCSM4 deserves a pat on the back for nailing the 

SST pattern last winter which was associated with the record cold and snow. The

forecast was made in January 2013 while we were still in a warm Atlantic and

cold Pacific mode. The first year of the forecast is 2015 and runs through 2019.

Though I would like to see an updated run done in January 2016 for 2017 and

beyond. It also correctly showed a two year El Nino event beginning 14-15

and strengthening in the second year 15-16 in another panel.

 

[Brian5671]

Another LR forecast from JB is all that warm water in the EPO region will be gone next year , so after the winter of 15/16 looking to be below normal temp wise , he believes the winter of 16/17 is well above average on the EC.  

 

The newest CFSV2 forecast in the 3.4 region does peak at 2.5 but that is down from last month forecast of 3 .

The big question is will JB go warm and snowless for 16/17 or will he try to find the cold pattern that could exist if everything went right? (see 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12)

[PB GFI]

The big question is will JB go warm and snowless for 16/17 or will he try to find the cold pattern that could exist if everything went right? (see 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12)

Above normal does not have to mean " snowless " . Where and how do you make these quantum leaps in that head of yours .

But if he thinks that warm pool in the EPO gets erased , then HP probably does not extend through Alaska and if a trough happens to develop in the W then the ridge is in the east in the means .

But if he sees above normal temps and below normal snow I am sure that will be his forecast .

His 07 -08 forecast of plus 2 to plus 4 with about 75 % of normal snowfall for the area

His 2010 - 2011 forecast where he had the coldest weather in the west and is explicit in saying the east would not come close to 09 - 10 .

How about he gets the Hurricane season right before we worry about 16/17 .

It was a throw away line when answering a post about this years El Nino and the CFSV2 run in the 3.4 region .

Eventually a few clunkers are coming our way.

We live on the coastal plain at 40 N . We will pay for these past great winters sooner than later.

[snowman19]

I have come to terms with probably seeing another winter with a POS NAO . I don`t see a NEG NAO with a NEG AMO .

However 1 more year of a NEG EPO with a warmer 3.4 than 1.2 region both declining once past Nov .

If we build the ridge the jet off Asia seeds Canada . Look at the NAO ver FEB - APR .

I like the PAC to run the temp scheme again .

For arguments sake only, let's say this Nino really does peak in region 3.4 in November at +2.5C, then begins dropping once past November like the CFS is showing. Do you think JB will change his ideas for winter at that point?

[PB GFI]

For arguments sake only, let's say this Nino really does peak in region 3.4 in November at +2.5C, then begins dropping once past November like the CFS is showing. Do you think JB will change his ideas for winter at that point?

 

If he does not get the response in the 1.2 region that he is expecting or  the models don`t look to cool either region or/and the water profile in the EPO region is not what he was looking for then sure .

 

However I will admit JB keeps a death grip on a forecast to long  and many times and rides it off a cliff . We are so early in the process I think that`s his early call but knowing him he will find his links and stay with them .

 

When he makes early calls this far out , he opens himself up to a lot of variance and sometimes many wish he didn't look over the horizon like he does .

[snowman19]

If he does not get the response in the 1.2 region that he is expecting or the models don`t look to cool either region or/and the water profile in the EPO region is not what he was looking for then sure .

However I will admit JB keeps a death grip on a forecast to long many times and rides it off a cliff . We are so early in the process I think that`s his early call but knowing him he will find his links and stay with them .

When he makes early calls this far out , he opens himself up to a lot of variance and sometimes many wish he didn't look over the horizon like he does .

You're right, once he grabs ahold of a certain forecast he doesn't like to let it go easily. Once we get to November, if region 3.4 is over +2.0C, I would definitely not go cold and snowy for winter, even if it started to drop thereafter, just in my opinion. That of course remains to be seen whether that actually happens or not, but if it does, I know you wouldn't call for a very cold and snowy winter, whether JB would back down at that point? I don't know

[donsutherland1]

MJO amplitude update:

 

For June 4, the MJO's amplitude rose to 2.509898. That is the 10th highest figure ever recorded in June. Only June 1997 had comparable or higher figures. June 1997 still has 11 of the 12 highest June MJO amplitudes on record. Records go back to 1974.

 

The June 1-4, 2015 MJO amplitude has averaged +1.910. If that figure is sustained, it would rank as the 2nd highest June figure, trailing only 1997.

 

The 10 highest June MJO amplitude averages are as follows:

 

1. 2.074, 1997 (May-June MEI: +2.314) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño

2. 1.880 2002 (May-June MEI: +0.882) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño

3. 1.640, 1979 (May-June MEI: +0.389)

4. 1.577, 1996 (May-June MEI: +0.022)

5. 1.575, 1986 (May-June MEI: +0.316) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño

6. 1.517, 2012 (May-June MEI: +0.909)

7. 1.513, 1993 (May-June MEI:+1.499)

8. 1.482, 2003 (May-June MEI: +0.048)

9. 1.433, 1991 (May-June MEI: +1.140) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño

10. 1.392, 2007 (May-June MEI: -0.300) -- emergent La Niña

[donsutherland1]

The 6/5 MJO amplitude was 2.640086. That was the 6th highest June figure on record. The MJO remained in Phase 1, but should move into Phase 2 in coming days. As it does so, a warmer pattern should develop in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and East.

[donsutherland1]

Now that we're at mid-month, it's a good time to see how the MJO has performed given the current El Niño. As had been discussed earlier in this thread, there was erroneous social media discussion that El Niño events suppress MJO amplitude. The empirical data (June 1974-June 2014) demonstrated otherwise.

 

 

The early data for June 2015 is consistent with the historical data.

 

June 1-14, 2015:

Average MJO Amplitude: 2.075 (running slightly ahead of 1997's record and much ahead of the 1981-2010 baseline)

Days <1: 0% (vs. 40% for the 1981-2010 base period)

Days 1 or above: 100% (vs. 60% for the 1981-2010 base period)

Days 2 or above: 57% (vs. 6% for the 1981-2010 base period)

[donsutherland1]

Preliminary June MJO Amplitude Statistics...

 

As is typical during El Niño conditions or emerging El Niños, the June MJO had a much higher than average amplitude. The preliminary June average was 1.784. That is the third highest June average on record. Only 1997 (2.074) and 2002 (1.880) had higher figures. Moreover, the percentage of days with amplitudes of 1 or above and 2 or above were much higher than the June 1974-2014 historical base period.

 

 

Finally, the preliminary figure for today (July 2) is 3.441. It will change with revisions, but if it is ultimately retained or revised upward, it would set a new July daily amplitude record. The existing record is 2.926, which was set on July 6, 2002.

[donsutherland1]

The MJO's amplitude reached a preliminary value of 3.759 on July 3. That would, by far, smash the summer amplitude record of 3.082, which was set on August 28, 1979.

[donsutherland1]

Preliminary July 5, 2015 MJO Amplitude: 4.150. If that figure is sustained, it would represent the highest MJO amplitude on record.

 

Going back earlier in this thread, it should be noted that despite flak from the blogosphere, Joe Bastardi correctly connected this summer's high amplitude MJO to the ongoing El Niño event. The historical data indicate that El Niño events typically lead to higher MJO amplitude during the summer.

 

Interestingly enough, MJO Phases 3, 4 and 7 have experienced the highest amplitudes (87% of the 30 highest figures). The phases that accounted for the 30 highest amplitudes on record (including the preliminary July 2015 data) are as follows:

 

Phase 1: 3%

Phase 2: 0%

Phase 3: 20%

Phase 4: 40%

Phase 5: 7%

Phase 6: 3%

Phase 7: 27%

Phase 8: 0%

[MJO812]

Henry M lol

"It's becoming more clear to me that the rules for the typical El Nino winter need to be thrown out this year. One must look at the PDO and El Nino as one. Gut tells me not as cold but a lot of wild storms on both coasts!"

[snowman19]

Henry M lol

"It's becoming more clear to me that the rules for the typical El Nino winter need to be thrown out this year. One must look at the PDO and El Nino as one. Gut tells me not as cold but a lot of wild storms on both coasts!"

Henry M couldn't predict a fart in a bean eating contest

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Henry M couldn't predict a fart in a bean eating contest

Agreed. And it's a no brainer the southern jet will be amped up thus lots of powerful storms. During 98 we were 15 degrees away from a 100" winter