PB GFI Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 JB making a winter forecast in the opening days of May is really ill advised. We have 8 months almost before December He has done it every year since at WB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Is it really a forecast or just his early ideas? His blog entry says '15-16 winter ideas. I agree much can change b/w now and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 DT says on Facebook that he may have to re-think his summer forecast-maybe hotter/drier eastern 1/2 of the US than previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 is it going to be a Summer like 1991...El Nino is strengthening and 1991 was an el nino Summer...May 1991 was the warmest on record and NYC had 39 days 90 or higher that year...Tied with 1993 for the most ever...the Summer of 1991 had above average precipitation...Other el nino years like 2009 had very cool damp conditions...1965 had dry conditions but was cool at times...1987 was a second year el nino summer and was on the hot side with average rainfall...It looks like a hot summer setting up with a big high in the east but it could change?...1987 had near 100 degree temperatures at the end of May...it was the hottest heat wave of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 is it going to be a Summer like 1991...El Nino is strengthening and 1991 was an el nino Summer...May 1991 was the warmest on record and NYC had 39 days 90 or higher that year...Tied with 1993 for the most ever...the Summer of 1991 had above average precipitation...Other el nino years like 2009 had very cool damp conditions...1965 had dry conditions but was cool at times...1987 was a second year el nino summer and was on the hot side with average rainfall...It looks like a hot summer setting up with a big high in the east but it could change?...1987 had near 100 degree temperatures at the end of May...it was the hottest heat wave of the year...What was the summer of 1997 like just out of curiosity? Rapidly strengthening Nino, possibly becoming strong at the same time of year as now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 What was the summer of 1997 like just out of curiosity? Rapidly strengthening Nino, possibly becoming strong at the same time of year as now it wasn't hot and July was wet...only 12 90+ days that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 it wasn't hot and July was wet...only 12 90+ days that year... May: -3.1 (83 max, 3.05) Jun: -0.6 (93 1.93) Jul: -0.7 (97 8.36) Aug: -1.9 (93 3.21) MEI 1997 -.485 -.602 -.244 .537 1.121 2.314 2.764 3.004 3.005 2.363 2.527 2.326 2015 .406 .468 .65 .953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 HM just blasted the whole joe bastardi bs argument about the lack of mjo waves meaning weaker el nino on twitter. He made him and the others following that thinking look silly. Strong El Niños actually greatly suppress the mjo not make it stronger as you can read in detail on his twitter. When will joe bastardi and his minions ever learn? He will do and say everything in his power to deny reality even to the point of giving bad info and making himself look stupid just so he can predict a cold and snowy winter. He makes himself look delusional at times. I don't know why people waste their money on his propaganda and nonsense to make a buck. I'd pay for HM's blogs anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Hey Brian, remember what I said about irony in PR? This...this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 HM just blasted the whole joe bastardi bs argument about the lack of mjo waves meaning weaker el nino on twitter. He made him and the others following that thinking look silly. Strong El Niños actually greatly suppress the mjo not make it stronger as you can read in detail on his twitter. When will joe bastardi and his minions ever learn? He will do and say everything in his power to deny reality even to the point of giving bad info and making himself look stupid just so he can predict a cold and snowy winter. He makes himself look delusional at times. I don't know why people waste their money on his propaganda and nonsense to make a buck. I'd pay for HM's blogs anyday His response . They gain big amplitude as the el nino is evolving. I dont know why he said that, given I showed the specific cases of strong el nino years that have that. Once the el nino has developed, that may be the case as the atmosphere adapts to a steady state. However think about it, the westerly wind bursts that occur have to cause convergence and pressure falls in one places, rises in another. As the water warms, then the tendency is for the MJO to adapt. As we can see now, it has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 HM just blasted the whole joe bastardi bs argument about the lack of mjo waves meaning weaker el nino on twitter. He made him and the others following that thinking look silly. Strong El Niños actually greatly suppress the mjo not make it stronger as you can read in detail on his twitter. When will joe bastardi and his minions ever learn? He will do and say everything in his power to deny reality even to the point of giving bad info and making himself look stupid just so he can predict a cold and snowy winter. He makes himself look delusional at times. I don't know why people waste their money on his propaganda and nonsense to make a buck. I'd pay for HM's blogs anyday JB needs a weaker nino to get his colder winter forecast to verify. So you'll see a bias towards a weaker nino and he will hold onto that until the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 JB needs a weaker nino to get his colder winter forecast to verify. So you'll see a bias towards a weaker nino and he will hold onto that until the bitter end.JB has decided that this will be a cold and snowy winter and he will ride that train like Casey Jones until it crashes and burns. He is already going into denial about the El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 JB has decided that this will be a cold and snowy winter and he will ride that train like Casey Jones until it crashes and burns. He is already going into denial about the El NiñoNo he is not you idiot. His take is this gets to 1.8 and backs off Oct thru Dec .Don't lie about the guys forecast jackass. F Anthony Masiello he called winters end last Jan. 2 morons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 JB has decided that this will be a cold and snowy winter and he will ride that train like Casey Jones until it crashes and burns. He is already going into denial about the El Niño we could have a winter like 97-98 incoming and he would spin it as being potentially cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No he is not you idiot. His take is this gets to 1.8 and backs off Oct thru Dec . Don't mistake the guys forecast jackass. F Anthony Masiello who called winters end last Jan. 2 morons if it does end up 1.8 or less then he's in luck--if it's over 2.0 his early call is in trouble IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No he is not you idiot. His take is this gets to 1.8 and backs off Oct thru Dec . Don't lie about the guys forecast jackass. F Anthony Masiello who called winters end last Jan. 2 morons JB couldn't make a wart on HM's butt and neither can you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 JB couldn't make a wart on HM's butt and neither can you No super nino coming... I think JB is right that this gets to around 1.8 and then drops as we head to winter. I'm no JB fan but I have no clue what your argument is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No super nino coming... I think JB is right that this gets to around 1.8 and then drops as we head to winter. I'm no JB fan but I have no clue what your argument is here. do you have a specific scientific reason behind why you think this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No super nino coming... I think JB is right that this gets to around 1.8 and then drops as we head to winter. I'm no JB fan but I have no clue what your argument is here. The response to the morons post was an email response from JB about HMs comments . He opens with They gain big amplitude as the el nino is evolving. I dont know why he said that, given I showed the specific cases of strong el nino years that have that. So he already saying it`s a " STRONG el nino " So what does the little boy in the spectrum write after reading JBs reply ? " He is already going into denial about the El Niño" ...... I guess reading comprehension is not in his arsenal . The call is for a strong 1.8 then backing off O-D and the warmest waters ending up in 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 do you have a specific scientific reason behind why you think this? Yawn...I've read every piece of info on this forum. It leads me to think a moderate (which is already here) to maybe strong niño is coming. If you want a long detailed post right now, look elsewhere as I'm on mobile. You've been humping a super nino...the models disagree with you for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 do you have a specific scientific reason behind why you think this? Because that`s what the modeling is showing you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Discuss the forecast. Next namecalling or attack gets banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 JB needs a weaker nino to get his colder winter forecast to verify. So you'll see a bias towards a weaker nino and he will hold onto that until the bitter end. Where are you getting this #$%^ from ? This is complete nonsense . His call is for 1.8 C which is a Mod to Strong nino at its peak just NOT A SUPER NINO . I am not sure why you are thinking that he is basing his winter forecast on a " weaker " el nino , he`s not . The call for a colder winter has to do with the propagation WEST as it weakens from it`s strong state once to O - D and not the product of a weaker nino. The argument from yesterday was about his MJO idea and not about his nino idea . He is in line with all of the guidance . His winter idea has nothing to do with JJA. So please when you post be factual . Finally from Joe D`Aleo The Weatherbell team does not deny an El Nino is ongoing. We collectively believe it will end up somewhere in the 1.4 to 1.9C in NINO34 at the peak which could come early - perhaps something like 1963/64 or 1965/66 or 2002/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 JB has often opined this spring that the nino will reach 1.8 this fall and then weaken after that. Hence, the winter time nino is on the weak to maybe moderate status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I guess the question is why people are worried about what forecaster A or B says when you have access of complete set of guidance that they have. Years ago weather forecasting was an inside game only open to people that had access to expensive difax data. Now this data is freely available to anyone that wants to make the effort to digest and evaluate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 if it does end up 1.8 or less then he's in luck--if it's over 2.0 his early call is in trouble IMO No this is what you said . The peak of the nino is not the basis of his winter idea . This is what makes you wrong on point 1 . 1.8 is considered a mod to strong el nino which is his call . 1.8 is not a " weak status " . You are conflating what happens at the peak vs what he believes ( along with the guidance ) that weakens once past OCT . The guidance is in front of you, take a look for yourself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I guess the question is why people are worried about what forecaster A or B says when you have access of complete set of guidance that they have. Years ago weather forecasting was an inside game only open to people that had access to expensive difax data. Now this data is freely available to anyone that wants to make the effort to digest and evaluate it. I agree . Forecaster A is not saying something devoid of guidance . But poster A is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I agree . Forecaster A is not saying something devoid of guidance . But poster A is . The beauty is that internet has democratized the access to the data, so nobody is in possession of some secret information. People just have to put in the work to learn how to evaluate and process the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I don't know why joe d'aleo is even mentioning the '02-'03 Nino. That is comparing apples and oranges, it's not even in the ballpark with this current Nino, that was a classic purely west-based (region 4) El Niño and the eastern regions barely reached Nino status. This is a purely east-based El Niño so far and the eastern regions are blazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I don't know why joe d'aleo is even mentioning the '02-'03 Nino. That is comparing apples and oranges, it's not even in the ballpark with this current Nino, that was a classic purely west-based (region 4) El Niño and the eastern regions barely reached Nino status. This is a purely east-based El Niño so far and the eastern regions are blazingAnd it was a first year Nino to top it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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