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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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lol - he crushed this winter . He smoked DT . HE CRUSHED THE WINTER .. It is not debatable .

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Think about this, if I called for a crazy cold and snowy winter, every winter, year after year, am wrong over and over again, then when the inevitable crazy cold and snowy winter hits, should I then be given credit for my great forecast that I nailed?
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Think about this, if I called for a crazy cold and snowy winter, every winter, year after year, am wrong over and over again, then when the inevitable crazy cold and snowy winter hits, should I then be given credit for my great forecast that I nailed?

Dear lord the irony

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Not bad. So why are several mets seemingly reducing amounts? Or is that information being filtered through unreliable sources?

It`s not just weenie`s thinking 6 looks to the right number

 

 

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE

GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL

INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST

AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...

AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE

REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON

WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER

INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE

WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

 

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ever since I've been on the boards I've heard that JB always calls for a cold and snowy winter...I started in 2000...Since 2000 KNYC has seen nine winters out of 15 with at least 35" of snow...two others with average snow...11 of 15 good to great winters...he would be 73% correct if that was the case...

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I removed his site from my favorites this evening. He's not very nice and it was getting too tiring deciphering his writing.

That's honestly my biggest critique of him. If you want to put out a product and expect people to pay for it at least make the effort to correctly edit it. Our phones and computers help us do it, automatically. How he manages to butcher it is beyond me. It comes across as amateur, not professional.

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I removed his site from my favorites this evening. He's not very nice and it was getting too tiring deciphering his writing.

Yeah if you are gonna write for the public then you need to have some decent writing skills, and these can be developed you don't have to be Faulkner. Or have someone edit it.

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That's honestly my biggest critique of him. If you want to put out a product and expect people to pay for it at least make the effort to correctly edit it. Our phones and computers help us do it, automatically. How he manages to butcher it is beyond me. It comes across as amateur, not professional.

It is bizarre.

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Can any winter storm be easy this year? I've had it. The only thing consistent with model guidance this season has been inconsistency. 

Let's go through the pictures first- A) Is the snow threat being upgraded again? Hardly a "class 3 kill storm" lol but 2 days ago, this looked like a moderate snow maker wreaking more woes upon the snow weary region. Today, after an afternoon of fearing the snow could practically bypass us because of a southward trend on the two American models, there has been a reversal, at least on the gfs. B) late night gfs showed 6"+ snow only over southern NJ on south. 12z was a bit higher. C)just 12 hours later a robust 6"+ snowfall is shown on the gfs for ALL of the area, not just south D) Late day GEFS shows the snow stripe from Arkansas to Cape Cod E)so yes, it looks like we'll probably have to call Mr Plow again F) Yes, I've had enough.

I tried very hard to keep the ‪#‎wcbs880‬ forecast reasonably consistent over the last 2 days. It was tough today and you can't imagine how many colleagues and competitors I spoke to; all of us exchanging ideas and opinions.

Map Facts- (Weather weenie talk)

NAM is and has been an outlier. Lowest amounts of snow.

RPM was as well. Originally no more than a coating to an inch or two except south. It's a private company WRF derived product. But even the WRF/ARW and WRF/NMM were at complete odds this morning. Now they've both trended towards a snowier solution and therefore, so has the RPM, now 4"+, except up towards I-84.

Canadien RGEM and GGEM have been nearly rock steady in bringing a 4-8" snow to the region

Euro also with its feet dug in with 4 to 8" regionwide.

UKMET also 4"+

Biggest flip flop of the day is the GFS as described above. Taken verbatem in fact, a moderate snow is in store for everyone, including northern suburbs, now going directly opposite of anything we mets have been harping about all day about north vs south snowfall amounts.

SREF plumes have performed horribly most of the season but have been nearly unwavering with 3-6"; more south

21z SREF, latest HRRR and RAP continued to slow down the cold front to nearly a halt for about 6 hours while a new wave travels up. Therefore, the increased snow amounts. HRRR shows rain to sleet to snow transitions between 12-4am.

Is this the final word? You're kidding...you really want me to answer. I think it's safe to say the original 4 to 8" prediction will probably occur over 75% of the area and for now I'll continue with lower amounts north; highest numbers south of I-78. Right in the middle sits metropolitan NJ, NYC, LI. My guess right now, taking into account the initial warm ground from today's 40's, sleet then not sure of the heaviest axis, I'd have to say 4" give or take a couple. I'll try to glance at night data but I'm mentally fatigued from this winter and tomorrow is going to be a long day.

Sorry snow lovers...if this is the last one of the season, I couldn't be happier. There's a lot more to this when it means trying to get the best information out to the public that depends on it. 

And to end on a hopeful note, this will be the last...at least for several days. A quieter pattern and eventually a warmer one is still being foretold by long range guidance. Lets hope it does a better job than it's been doing in the short term

~C

Craig Allens Facebook post is pretty funny.

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