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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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he's starting to change his tune on that one....says next 3 of 5 winters will be warm and an 11-12 redux is on the table. (Swear to God, he said that. Almost fell out of my chair)

Wow I gotta say in shocked. I used to follow him during the accuweather days.

And he's right we will have another 11/12. Things are just much more extreme these days hence this month. I fully expect a warm winter soon

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I asked the question in the March thread, but joe cioffi and DT agrees, thinks the -EPO loss is only temporary and we go back into a -EPO/-WPO pattern come the 2nd/3rd week of March. However, he expects a -PNA (pretty clear that happens) and a continuation of +NAO/+AO. I honestly don't know what such a pattern would yield once into March, I think it's going to be real interesting

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he's starting to change his tune on that one....says next 3 of 5 winters will be warm and an 11-12 redux is on the table. (Swear to God, he said that. Almost fell out of my chair)

I don't know about that. If that PDO pattern persists we're constantly going to see a -EPO. It's what will intensify the SW drought and possibly punish us with more cold and snow even as the globe continues to warm.

I think we may be locked in this pattern for a while as it really hasn't changed since last year. What will be interesting is if we set new low arctic sea ice records and global records this year, and how that will play a role in our weather.

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I asked the question in the March thread, but joe cioffi and DT agrees, thinks the -EPO loss is only temporary and we go back into a -EPO/-WPO pattern come the 2nd/3rd week of March. However, he expects a -PNA (pretty clear that happens) and a continuation of +NAO/+AO. I honestly don't know what such a pattern would yield once into March, I think it's going to be real interesting

my hunch is that you would see a bunch of cutters in that pattern....cold, warm up and rain, then cold. 

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I asked the question in the March thread, but joe cioffi and DT agrees, thinks the -EPO loss is only temporary and we go back into a -EPO/-WPO pattern come the 2nd/3rd week of March. However, he expects a -PNA (pretty clear that happens) and a continuation of +NAO/+AO. I honestly don't know what such a pattern would yield once into March, I think it's going to be real interesting

With the wave lengths shortening, the PNA+ and AO- become much less important in March. For example, with respect to NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms in March:

 

- AO-: 55%

- AO+: 45%

- PNA+: 36%

- PNA-: 64%

 

Most common combination: AO+/PNA-: 36%

2nd most common combination: AO-/PNA- and AO-/PNA+ 27% each.

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With the wave lengths shortening, the PNA+ and AO- become much less important in March. For example, with respect to NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms in March:

- AO-: 55%

- AO+: 45%

- PNA+: 36%

- PNA-: 64%

Most common combination: AO+/PNA-: 36%

2nd most common combination: AO-/PNA- and AO-/PNA+ 27% each.

I was wondering about how that plays out in March. So I guess it really doesn't matter anymore if the PNA is negative or AO positive.

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With the wave lengths shortening, the PNA+ and AO- become much less important in March. For example, with respect to NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms in March:

- AO-: 55%

- AO+: 45%

- PNA+: 36%

- PNA-: 64%

Most common combination: AO+/PNA-: 36%

2nd most common combination: AO-/PNA- and AO-/PNA+ 27% each.

Thanks Don. Just out of curiosity, if we were to see a -EPO/-WPO, along with a -PNA and +AO/+NAO, what results does that yield? It seems like we are headed for that after a temporary relaxation of the -EPO, the +PDO just won't let it quit
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Right after the euro ensembles came out DT posted a new status on his facebook wxrisk page. I guess he's not buying at all that this current pattern is going to continue through March

rough year for him-he goes cold and snowy, then cancels it right before the historic stretch of cold and snow came 1/24. 

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