NEXtreme Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Larry Cosgrove a few minutes ago: 500MB vorticity maximum very near Lewes DE. Storm fragmented as promised with its fast jump over the Appalachian Mountains. Regrouping phase will take the comma head through NYC/LI into New England and the Maritime Provinces with best snow chances. Moral of the story: until the storm is through, don't declare it a bust. Especially when you are not a professional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Larry Cosgrove a few minutes ago: 500MB vorticity maximum very near Lewes DE. Storm fragmented as promised with its fast jump over the Appalachian Mountains. Regrouping phase will take the comma head through NYC/LI into New England and the Maritime Provinces with best snow chances. Moral of the story: until the storm is through, don't declare it a bust. Especially when you are not a professional I'm not a professional met... but I STRONGLY disagree. This one is cooked for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT doesn't seem to think Tuesdays storm will come north into our area. Does think it will drop some decent snow in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT is a fool. He has been terrible this year. He had 8" for this storm in NYC. Why would anyone pay for his services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 JB, DT and SD are absolute jokes. My guess is more accurate than their predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What happened to HM...these guys are terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not a professional met... but I STRONGLY disagree. This one is cooked for NYC.Larry Cosgrove has been grossly overforecasting snow in NYC since November and he's been wrong every time. I suspect he will continue through March. He's been way, way off the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not to pile on just asking - uptons snowfall map updated at 630 am still has 3-4 at nassau Suffolk border. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jim Cantore from TWC had 6 bouts of thundersnow last night. Pretty amazing actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT is a fool. He has been terrible this year. He had 8" for this storm in NYC. Why would anyone pay for his services. He also seems like a jerk from what I could gather from his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 He also seems like a jerk from what I could gather from his posts. High bust potential with the last 2 storms and the other 2 had the precip but the mixing timing was difficult. Been a heck of a busy month. the 4 - 8 inches amounts to be fair occurred about 30 - 40 miles southwest of NYC metro with the inverted trough enhancement. Im about 38 miles from Manhattan and received 6 inches. Was in the band of mod to hvy snow from about 10PM to 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thnxs. I have to credit NorthShoreWx...I recall him making a post about it years ago. I may not have had the exact thing on the quote word for word, but that was the gist of it. That was March 2001, not 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 He also seems like a jerk from what I could gather from his posts. In his defense, nearly everyone has been wrong on nearly every storm for our area the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Screwed again. AW calling for 1-3" from tomorrow night through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like DT will be changing his forecast map. He conceited that nyc may see decent snows on Tuesday after the euro came out. I'm guessing he'll wait until after the 0z runs are all done tonight/early tommorrow morning before he changes the snowfall prediction map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wunderground just reduced my amounts from 3-5" to 1-3". AW staying steady at 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wunderground just reduced my amounts from 3-5" to 1-3". AW staying steady at 2-4". You probably know this already, but the Wunderground forecasts and accumulation amounts are from TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You probably know this already, but the Wunderground forecasts and accumulation amounts are from TWC I know, which partly concerns me. This winter, they've actually been . . . dare I say it . . . Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That was March 2001, not 1978. It may have been this post made on Eastern by you in 2008 that was etched in my memory that caused me to err... "The Vanderbilt record is spotty. It wasn't kept on days when the museum was closed and several big snowstorms weren't recorded. January 1978 is missing, but someone bothered to report 15" for February 1978, spread over 3 days! This is a copy of the observers sheet for March 2001 ... it dramatically illustrates the problem" (You then link to the March 2001 Vanderbilt observer's form) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, Joe Cioffi hasn't lost his perspective or his sense of humor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know, which partly concerns me. This winter, they've actually been . . . dare I say it . . . Good. The main reason why their amounts have been closer to reality is because when the models change, they are changing their amounts. There's many Mets and outlets (including the NWS at times) who do go by the models, however after the forecast is made, have a tendency to "stick to their guns", not wanting to really back off. While I don't like TWC's approach to many things weather, these adjustments are really necessary, since committing to a forecast which was basically due to the models being bullish and then not changing it after they back off big time really doesn't make much sense.....it's not like a relationship where the weather models are looking for unwavering commitment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like DT will be changing his forecast map. He conceited that nyc may see decent snows on Tuesday after the euro came out. I'm guessing he'll wait until after the 0z runs are all done tonight/early tommorrow morning before he changes the snowfall prediction map His new map is bullish-has the 6 inch line right around NYC and 10 down near Balt-DC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 His new map is bullish-has the 6 inch line right around NYC and 10 down near Balt-DC - That's pretty much what you get when you take the model consensus and factor in ratios...looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's pretty much what you get when you take the model consensus and factor in ratios...looks very reasonable. That's what scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's what scares me. Scares you in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Scares you in what way? That was the forecast everyone had then, not just him. It probably is in the back of everyone's mind now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 His new map is bullish-has the 6 inch line right around NYC and 10 down near Balt-DC - Too bullish for nyc imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That was the forecast everyone had then, not just him. It probably is in the back of everyone's mind now lol What a disaster that storm was.. I couldn't even believe while the storm was ongoing the Euro & NAM were still burying the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Accuweather has the 3-6" line right up to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think that's such a bad call since it's a moisture laden system running into a cold airmass, but the prospect of some confluence does scare me a bit where we are. I'd feel comfortable with a 4-5 inch expectation, but I'm not sure about anything around 8 inches. Might be a bit too bullish there. Who knows. This could be our overperformer of the winter the way everything else has gone bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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