Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bernie Rayno on twitter: 500 MB tells the story, this storm will not be a miss for the Mid Atlantic or SNE Excellent update by Bernie. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-to-produce-delays-from-minneapolis-to-chicago/2430839568001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Elliot Abrams: in New York City, this is the first year out of the last 9 to have no 2 inch or greater snow event to this point in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hopefully that's about to change with the 3 chances over the next 7/8 days. I thought NYC got 2 inches from the mini- blizzard arctic front on Friday Jan 9th? I guess not. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Craig Allen has some interesting analysis on his facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153040149177720&id=230609267719&substory_index=0 The Saturday event is still fairly uncertain. A week ago, the models were keying in on this system but had backed off on calling for a coastal storm. All of that has changed in the past 2-3 days. Each model run is showing a low that is closer to the coast and has increased the chances of some kind of winter weather event this weekend along I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Summary for Saturday: likely plowable, but not a blockbuster ECMWF and GFS (Parallel & Operational) show very similar surface low pressure tracks, with the ECMWF a tad closer to the coast. Both models are close, but S&E of the 40/70 benchmark. The Canadian GEM is way far to the S&E. This argues for an event on the lighter side as the brunt of what looks to be a very deep low pressure (bombogenesis?) stays off shore. The ensembles paint a different story. The GEFS suite shows most of the ensemble member tracks even further to the S&E of the deterministic run, thus adding support to a weaker event. The generally trustworthy ECMWF Ensemble, however, has many more individual members with deep low pressures very close to the coast. This would argue for more of a snow threat from Philly to Boston. Will have to watch the model trends the next several days. I don't buy into the blockbuster snow idea yet for several reasons. 1.) There really isn't a strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. There isn't much dynamically aloft to drive the surface low northward. It's a very progressive flow. 2.) There really isn't a lot of phasing going on. At 18Z on Saturday, the northern and southern jet streams are distinctly separate with only a tiny hint of a negative tilt to the southern stream trough. Also, the 500 MB low hasn't cut off aloft yet 3.) The western North American ridging isn't very impressive suggesting a more zonal flow. Things can change either way (this storm still could totally miss), but yes it looks like snow on Saturday for the big cities, but not likely to be a blockbuster event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Elliot Abrams: in New York City, this is the first year out of the last 9 to have no 2 inch or greater snow event to this point in winter. Actually that's not true. 2007-08 had no 2" event until February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Craig Allen has some interesting analysis on his facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153040149177720&id=230609267719&substory_index=0 The Saturday event is still fairly uncertain. A week ago, the models were keying in on this system but had backed off on calling for a coastal storm. All of that has changed in the past 2-3 days. Each model run is showing a low that is closer to the coast and has increased the chances of some kind of winter weather event this weekend along I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Summary for Saturday: likely plowable, but not a blockbuster ECMWF and GFS (Parallel & Operational) show very similar surface low pressure tracks, with the ECMWF a tad closer to the coast. Both models are close, but S&E of the 40/70 benchmark. The Canadian GEM is way far to the S&E. This argues for an event on the lighter side as the brunt of what looks to be a very deep low pressure (bombogenesis?) stays off shore. The ensembles paint a different story. The GEFS suite shows most of the ensemble member tracks even further to the S&E of the deterministic run, thus adding support to a weaker event. The generally trustworthy ECMWF Ensemble, however, has many more individual members with deep low pressures very close to the coast. This would argue for more of a snow threat from Philly to Boston. Will have to watch the model trends the next several days. I don't buy into the blockbuster snow idea yet for several reasons. 1.) There really isn't a strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. There isn't much dynamically aloft to drive the surface low northward. It's a very progressive flow. 2.) There really isn't a lot of phasing going on. At 18Z on Saturday, the northern and southern jet streams are distinctly separate with only a tiny hint of a negative tilt to the southern stream trough. Also, the 500 MB low hasn't cut off aloft yet 3.) The western North American ridging isn't very impressive suggesting a more zonal flow. Things can change either way (this storm still could totally miss), but yes it looks like snow on Saturday for the big cities, but not likely to be a blockbuster event. I agree with Craig Allen. Given the forecast state of the teleconnections noted earlier in this thread, a 3"-6" or 4"-8" event would be plausible. Something greater than 8" would be unlikely (not impossible, just unlikely) for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree with Craig Allen. Given the forecast state of the teleconnections noted earlier in this thread, a 3"-6" or 4"-8" event would be plausible. Something greater than 8" would be unlikely (not impossible, just unlikely) for NYC. you can count the number of winters without a four inch snowstorm on both hands...The last time NYC didn't get one was 2002...I think we will get at least one 4" snowfall this year...Maybe next week?...I'll settle for 4" at this point...A lot has to go right for that to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree with Craig Allen. Given the forecast state of the teleconnections noted earlier in this thread, a 3"-6" or 4"-8" event would be plausible. Something greater than 8" would be unlikely (not impossible, just unlikely) for NYC. Interesting points by Craig. He's great and it further supports your initial idea of something on the 4-8 range that I saw you posted as possible (or it may have been Isotherm or both, can't remember). Will be interesting to watch if any of those factors/influences Craig mentioned trend favorably for us even a bit more to lock in a significant-moderate snowfall. I suspect not too much, but it looks like we have an impactful snow threat to track and that's a 1st this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Interesting points by Craig. He's great and it further supports your initial idea of something on the 4-8 range that I saw you posted as possible (or it may have been Isotherm or both, can't remember). Will be interesting to watch if any of those factors/influences Craig mentioned trend favorably for us even a bit more to lock in a significant-moderate snowfall. I suspect not too much, but it looks like we have an impactful snow threat to track and that's a 1st this winter. Craig Allen is outstanding. He's probably my favorite NYC Metro Area radio meteorologist. He knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Craig Allan is very good...One of the best over 30 years now...I agree with him but it's still days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Craig Allen is outstanding. He's probably my favorite NYC Metro Area radio meteorologist. He knows his stuff. Craig Allan is very good...One of the best over 30 years now...I agree with him but it's still days away... Without a doubt my favorite tv/radio meteorologist at the present time, and his analysis never ceases to amaze me. He's almost never wrong with his prediction. Wish we had more tv mets like him, rather than the "phonies"/entertainers we are treated to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Craig Allen and Nick Gregory are my favorites. Very knowledgeable, realistic and can explain the science to laypeople well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The WCBS Legends (Years of service) Craig Allen (1983- present), Alan Kasper (1970-2014), Gordon Barnes (1960's to 1970s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 "First major storm" http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/first-major-snowstorm-may-impa/2430839568001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's Joe Cioffi's take, so far, on Saturday's storm: http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joesforecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LC posted on FaceBook. Here's what he has to say, in part, about the Saturday system: 3) Talk about bombing out! As the low moves from east of Norfolk VA to the 40/70 "Benchmark", rapid pressure falls will coincide with an explosion of precipitation from near Richmond VA early Saturday into southern New England by nightfall. The difficult part is this: will a cold air drain set up from Quebec and Ontario into the major cities of the Interstate 95 corridor, and will the powerhouse UVV signature shove the snow to rain line back to the coast? I suspect that one or both parameters will be workable. So while early snow and sleet from C and N VA goes to rain, the arc of liquid types will likely not get much more than 50 miles to the left of the urban areas before marching back down to the shoreline of DE....NJ....S NY....CT....RI and MA. Granted, this may mean a mostly rain event for Long Island, but even there with the monster height, temperature and pressure falls a changeover to all snow is probable in the end quarter of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's Upton's take on Saturday: THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850 MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT PROFILES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. RAIN/SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 JB in his video says 3-6 from DCA to BOS but not until alot of rain falls first. Best snows in SE New England. Notes no big high to the north. Likes the 2nd storm more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 JB in his video says 3-6 from DCA to BOS but not until alot of rain falls first. Best snows in SE New England. Notes no big high to the north. Likes the 2nd storm more. I'm going to have to say I one hundred percent agree with JB on this. Nice to see me and the big guy agreeing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Upton's snow and Ice map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's Joe's take: http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joesforecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL this forum is so dead right now compared to the last couple of nights....But anyway, Joe Cioffi still seems quite intrigued by this storm BULLETIN BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FASTER IM GOING TO RAISE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FOR NEW JERSEY TO NYC SOUTHEAST NEW YORK LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. I'm going to raise amounts to 3 to 6 inches beginning around 9 pm in south Jersey and around midnight in NYC and Long Island. Would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Warnings go up for parts of this area in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL this forum is so dead right now compared to the last couple of nights....But anyway, Joe Cioffi still seems quite intrigued by this storm Nice to hear from a good met, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here's Joe again: https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi?ref=ts&fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here's Joe again: https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi?ref=ts&fref=ts He has the right idea. Heaviest snow in nj around my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Interesting read: http://www.wxrisk.com/mccoy-kirk-spock-jan24-jan-26-feb-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty shameful spin job by 101.5. I heard a dreadful forecast with Dan Zarrow's name on it last night around 8pm for "4inches north and west of the turnpike." This morning they try to play it off like that was a good call. Average of 4" in north NJ? Must have missed the NWS p.I.s. Pretty sure snow fell south of the turnpike too. Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Local stations are starting to come out with their first calls. TWC just put this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Local stations are starting to come out with their first calls. TWC just put this out. Mirrors the GFS pretty well. That Euro run was an anomaly with its totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mirrors the GFS pretty well. That Euro run was an anomaly with its totals. really because it did that at 12z also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.