PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JB needs to swallow a little pride and take out the trash. His vids are becoming unwatchable. They are the predictable posting of 850 temp anomalies as a way to claim he has been correct about the cold. We don't live at 5000 feet and we don't care about 850 temp ensembles. He sounded irritated in todays vid. He said HE is frustrated with the frustration of his readers. According to Joe, they/we just don't appreciate or understand what makes a forecast accurate. Today he said if we all had one good snow under our belts, we would be much more sympathetic towards him. He is wrong. It's about a 'perception' that he is 100% responsible for constructing. If he thinks his readers have a warped perception of his forecasts, that is 100% his fault, not his readers. If I have a customer that had a different expectation than what I delivered, that is MY fault for failing to communicate, not theirs. Regardless of whether or not an 850 temp anomaly map was nailed or not, regardless of whether or not 10 days late on a cold shot is just a delayed snafu...or as he called it...."I caught the pass but it was out of bounds", (nice excuse), he never once put forth a forecast that hinted in the slightest that we would have a rainstorm into the lakes on xmas and another one on new years...period. In fact just a couple of days ago he said the new years storm would not cut to the lakes and that all the folks riding the positive NAO would be proven it's insignificance. Oops. You're a good man Joe, you know your sh*t, you're entertaining, but take out the trash, put aside the excuses, stop blaming your readers for failing to comprehend your words, and lastly start talking about the 10 meter forecast, like you did back in the olden days. Why are you paying for the subscription ? If he sucks so bad save yourself the angst and 20 bucks a month and cxl . What`s so hard about that . You realize what a forecast is right ? It is a prediction or estimate of future events . ( There are NO GUARANTEES ) When you pay a fee and the service ( weather or financial ) are not to your satisfaction just CXL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why are you paying for the subscription ? If he sucks so bad save yourself the angst and 20 bucks a month and cxl . What`s so hard about that . You realize what a forecast is right ? It is a prediction or estimate of future events . ( There are NO GUARANTEES ) When you pay a fee and the service ( weather or financial ) are not to your satisfaction just CXL. There's more to the site than just JB. JD writes a good blog and the maps/models are pretty good. If it was just JB, I think I would agree with you more. He puts alot of premium stuff on twitter, so if it were just him, you could essentially get his thoughts for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why are you paying for the subscription ? If he sucks so bad save yourself the angst and 20 bucks a month and cxl . What`s so hard about that . You realize what a forecast is right ? It is a prediction or estimate of future events . ( There are NO GUARANTEES ) When you pay a fee and the service ( weather or financial ) are not to your satisfaction just CXL. a.) $80 or $100 isn't going to sink me b.) as I said, jb is entertainment c.) it's a relatively inexpensive way to a ton of model info d.) as a paying subscriber, customer, I also get the right to b**ch or throw down my opinion. so who is making this hard? any other questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Think JB is getting too much flak here. Im a subscriber and do see his forecast is just getting farther from verifying. However, any of you stop to think or actually give credit to someone who actually put his reputation on the line to release a LR winter forecast? He may be wrong but he tried and its not like it has been a complete failure. Furthermore, many other forecasters had something similar saying january and february would be cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 ..larry cosgrove still thinks it will get cold / stormy after his call of a "january thaw" (jan10-19th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 ..larry cosgrove still thinks it will get cold / stormy after his call of a "january thaw" (jan10-19th). another sign of a dead ratter winter, the great pattern is always 2-3 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 another sign of a dead ratter winter, the great pattern is always 2-3 weeks away. Time will run out sooner or later and spring will be here before you know it. Now watch the blocking hit hard in March-April and screw our early spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 a.) $80 or $100 isn't going to sink me b.) as I said, jb is entertainment c.) it's a relatively inexpensive way to a ton of model info d.) as a paying subscriber, customer, I also get the right to b**ch or throw down my opinion. so who is making this hard? any other questions? Bitching is really not an admirable trait , Don`t read the guy if he sucks . Who cares if he missed Dec . Newsflash , he is going to miss again , this way you don`t get your hopes up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Bitching is really not an admirable trait , Don`t read the guy if he sucks . Who cares if he missed Dec . Newsflash , he is going to miss again , this way you don`t get your hopes up . Who cares if he missed? I'm sure he does and I'm sure folks that make their livlihood off the weather care just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 another sign of a dead ratter winter, the great pattern is always 2-3 weeks away. Stop whining already - it enough - You made your point 1000 times. Happy New Year. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There's more to the site than just JB. JD writes a good blog and the maps/models are pretty good. If it was just JB, I think I would agree with you more. He puts alot of premium stuff on twitter, so if it were just him, you could essentially get his thoughts for free Since 2000 I have probably seen him miss 50 x . And that`s probably low . But I have come to realize when some METS estimate the future solutions of the atmosphere is just someones best estimate . We know he busts , I am just not sure what the news is here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Who cares if he missed? I'm sure he does and I'm sure folks that make their livlihood off the weather care just a little bit. If they lose money they will fire him . That happens in the private sector. The difference is you haven`t lost any money it`s just your expectations haven`t been met . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Think JB is getting too much flak here. Im a subscriber and do see his forecast is just getting farther from verifying. However, any of you stop to think or actually give credit to someone who actually put his reputation on the line to release a LR winter forecast? He may be wrong but he tried and its not like it has been a complete failure. Furthermore, many other forecasters had something similar saying january and february would be cold and snowy. jb is not an idiot, he knows hype sells so he hypes up every storm possible. People with common sense know this and dont pay for his crap. You will learn eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Think JB is getting too much flak here. Im a subscriber and do see his forecast is just getting farther from verifying. However, any of you stop to think or actually give credit to someone who actually put his reputation on the line to release a LR winter forecast? He may be wrong but he tried and its not like it has been a complete failure. Furthermore, many other forecasters had something similar saying january and february would be cold and snowy. if you and some others actually read and comprehend my post, you will understand my beef with JB isn't about missing a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 if you and some others actually read and comprehend my post, you will understand my beef with JB isn't about missing a forecast. Dude , I am right there with you . I feel your frustration . I think this $^& a big ^&* for all of us . JB is notorious for showing you a Dec outlook and then saying well if you add 2 weeks in Jan I was kinda right . He covers up on the ropes as good as anyone I have ever seen . My only point was , this is not news I have seen him do this since 2000 . His edges on storms are always too aggressive . He sees cold in almost everything . He crushes the GFS and hates when he gets beat up .He will hold on to an idea way to long and destroys his forecast because of it . My ONLY point was . That`s who he is and better to cxl than torture yourself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Jb tweeted on Christmas that he busted on his white Christmas forecast. Then he said double or nothing for new years day. Let's face it...in **** winters...jb just sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Agree, JB has been unwatchable lately with him trying to salvage his forecasts. The arguement of if you take into account the first half of Jan to redeem his Dec forecast was ridiculous. I get it, he is a salesman, most of us got sucked in to his extreme winter forecast back in Oct, it's our own fault for falling for it hook, line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Agree, JB has been unwatchable lately with him trying to salvage his forecasts. The arguement of if you take into account the first half of Jan to redeem his Dec forecast was ridiculous. I get it, he is a salesman, most of us got sucked in to his extreme winter forecast back in Oct, it's our own fault for falling for it hook, line and sinker.I don't think people should be so hard on themselves. Things looked good. Maybe *too* good? I don't know who said it so I can't give the person credit, but long-range forecasting really is a crapshoot. The sample-size that these forecasters use is minuscule in the grand scheme of weather patterns. Fourteen winter seasons out of thousands does not a pattern make. The SAI connection seemed promising, but maybe this is just proof of the statistical adage that correlation does not infer causation.Then again, maybe we get a crippling blizzard next week and all's forgiven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This was the greatest long range forecast of all with a 15 year lead time. http://www.weca.org/SET/report/node6.html That is a bit creepy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This was the greatest long range forecast with a 15 year lead time. http://www.weca.org/SET/report/node6.html Is that legit ? Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This was the greatest long range forecast with a 15 year lead time. http://www.weca.org/SET/report/node6.html This!!... but that's why conspiracy idiots think it was geoengineered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Is that legit ? Crazy. Yes I knew about this back in 2012 while debunking a HAARP video on YouTube one day when I was bored lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 that's crazy--even had the same name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Agree, JB has been unwatchable lately with him trying to salvage his forecasts. The arguement of if you take into account the first half of Jan to redeem his Dec forecast was ridiculous. I get it, he is a salesman, most of us got sucked in to his extreme winter forecast back in Oct, it's our own fault for falling for it hook, line and sinker. That was comical on his site yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Why are you paying for the subscription ? If he sucks so bad save yourself the angst and 20 bucks a month and cxl . What`s so hard about that . You realize what a forecast is right ? It is a prediction or estimate of future events . ( There are NO GUARANTEES ) When you pay a fee and the service ( weather or financial ) are not to your satisfaction just CXL. Jb has sucked for years. Only thing he was good at was reading the weather forecast over the radio In his early years, I recall hearing him on kyw 1060 in philadelphia.Anyone can look at computer models and call a short term pattern. It takes the village idiot to spend money on reading his garbage or any of the other cost based weather people/companies. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 a.) $80 or $100 isn't going to sink me b.) as I said, jb is entertainment c.) it's a relatively inexpensive way to a ton of model info d.) as a paying subscriber, customer, I also get the right to b**ch or throw down my opinion. so who is making this hard? any other questions? You would be better off using this money as a donation to a local charity. Atleast you will know that you are not getting kicked in the nutz every day. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Outstanding Saturday Summary by JB this morning - anyone who has cancelled winter is going to be wrong IMO. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-3-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Of course in the first 5 seconds he has to go on a global warming rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Outstanding Saturday Summary by JB this morning - anyone who has cancelled winter is going to be wrong IMO. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-3-2015 It sounds like he's trying really hard to convince himself and others that we are still going to see a rocking winter. He made a few good points and he always lays things out in such a way that instantly attracts weenies towards him. He knows how to manipulate data to please his subscribers and I guarantee he will make up something that will justify his forecast if it turns out the opposite of what he expects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Dari alexander just asked nick Gregory what's with all the rain I thought you said it was going to be cold and snowy and he said it's onlyJanuary 5t be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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