Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 unless Jan turns out to be very different the odds are high that MY winter forecast is going to be BUST.... that doesnt mean Winter is OVER BUT it does mean that I am going to be WRONG Hey...you give it your best shot...you try...and what happens happens...I always liked that Roosevelt (Teddy, not Franklin) quote you frequently cite about how it is not the critic who matters...but the one who throws himself out into the fray...putting professional reputation on the line and taking chances...and never being afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 January could still end up okay but in a different way than most mets predicted. Thankfully there are multiple ways for us to get decent snows without a -NAO and even a -AO. this issue is that this year is not behaving like a nino like DT said, it's more Nina. Higher solar activity doesn't seem to be helping our cause either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hey...you give it your best shot...you try...and what happens happens...I always liked that Roosevelt (Teddy, not Franklin) quote you frequently cite about how it is not the critic who matters...but the one who throws himself out into the fray...putting professional reputation on the line and taking chances...and never being afraid. Or even Gekko..."You win some...you lose some...but you keep on fighting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm hoping the winter turns out like 1965-66 or 1986-87...1991-92 and 1994-95 had a better second half of winter but still had below average snowfall the second half...I still doubt it ends up like 72-73 and 97-98 with hardly no snow at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm hoping the winter turns out like 1965-66 or 1986-87...1991-92 and 1994-95 had a better second half of winter but still had below average snowfall the second half...I still doubt it ends up like 72-73 and 97-98 with hardly no snow at all... 94-95 really only had one storm of consequence-an early Feb storm that dumped a foot or so regionwide before ending as some light rain. Other than that, it was warm and snowless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 unless Jan turns out to be very different the odds are high that MY winter forecast is going to be BUST.... that doesnt mean Winter is OVER BUT it does mean that I am going to be WRONG it's a tough job predicting the weather...not to mention making a living doing it...You can look like a fool or a genius...The worst thing that can happen is predicting a great winter and it flops...Then you feel the wrath of weenies...If you said a mild winter and it was cold and snowy the weenies wouldn't care... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 94-95 really only had one storm of consequence-an early Feb storm that dumped a foot or so regionwide before ending as some light rain. Other than that, it was warm and snowless.... Was probably the most boring winter ever. We did squeeze out the one storm but that was it. No other measurable snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Was probably the most boring winter ever. We did squeeze out the one storm but that was it. No other measurable snow events it's right up there with duds like 01-02 and 11-12-the only difference that it did deliver one MECS while the latter 2 had their only snowfall of around 2-4 inches-funny thing was both years had that event in the 3rd week of Jan and then that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Dude. Who cares. The guy did well in Nov and got Dec wrong. I'm not going to go back to his hurricane forecast which was awful . Many though the flip in Dec would happen faster. So what. JB somehow owes you a pound of flesh because your idea that an " EPIC" winter was coming is not. I have no idea where you ever read that from any forecaster. I could care less about JB forecasts or anyone else's Busts but your irrational expectations of a wire to wire cold and extreme snowy winter makes your daily crying insufferable . Pos enso years are sometimes back loaded and if this one is not then you have to get over it. well as a wxbell subscriber, I listen to and read JB's stuff almost daily. He did say, many times, over and over again back in early December that once the cold came back, (which he continually moved back, (delayed not denied...his favorite line), he said IT WOULD LOCK IN for the rest of the winter. HIs words, not my imagination. No mention of anything 'locking in' lately. He often uses phrases, like "I don't ever remember seeing anything like this before...", or "this is as though i drew the map...", implying it's off the charts....he does this regularly. He always tosses in extreme analogs, like '76 and 77-78, (which he has used both so far this season). He can always find some obscure index or ensemble run, or foreign model to say, "see, this is exactly what I was talking about". Or he'll bash the gfs and hug the euro until the gfs looks cold and snowy and the euro turns warm...then the gfs is gonna score the coupe and the euro is up to it's old biases. But in the end who cares? Believe it or not I like JB, It's how he rolls. I recognize it and take it for what it's worth. But to deny he hypes the cold and snow? That's just absurd and insulting to us veteran forum weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 some winters like 1994-95 and 1999-00 started out mild and snowless but got a two week period with at least 10" of snowfall and an average temperature of 32.0 or lower...there is still hope for the second half of January and February... 15 day period.............AT..max/min...Precip"..Snow"BS"....depthFeb. 7-21..........1947..30.6..49..10..1.51"..15.9"..10.7"...10"Jan20-Feb 3.....1966..28.2..44....8..1.73"..14.7"....6.8"....8"Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0..58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5"Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5..45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8"Jan28-Feb11....1986..30.4..48..14..1.68"..11.5"....4.5"...6"Jan 17-31.........1987..26.8..40....8..3.21"..13.1"....8.1"...9"Feb. 2-16.........1995..26.3..47....6..1.72"..11.1"..10.8"..11"Jan20-Feb 3.....2000..24.5..38....8..1.78"..11.7"....5.5"....6"Jan27-Feb 10...2013..31.2..61..18..2.80"...12.2"..11.4"...11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Was probably the most boring winter ever. We did squeeze out the one storm but that was it. No other measurable snow events 11-12 and it isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 well as a wxbell subscriber, I listen to and read JB's stuff almost daily. He did say, many times, over and over again back in early December that once the cold came back, (which he continually moved back, (delayed not denied...his favorite line), he said IT WOULD LOCK IN for the rest of the winter. HIs words, not my imagination. No mention of anything 'locking in' lately. He often uses phrases, like "I don't ever remember seeing anything like this before...", or "this is as though i drew the map...", implying it's off the charts....he does this regularly. He always tosses in extreme analogs, like '76 and 77-78, (which he has used both so far this season). He can always find some obscure index or ensemble run, or foreign model to say, "see, this is exactly what I was talking about". Or he'll bash the gfs and hug the euro until the gfs looks cold and snowy and the euro turns warm...then the gfs is gonna score the coupe and the euro is up to it's old biases. But in the end who cares? Believe it or not I like JB, It's how he rolls. I recognize it and take it for what it's worth. But to deny he hypes the cold and snow? That's just absurd and insulting to us veteran forum weenies Agree...you have to read him along with others and well as check out the boards to get a feel for what's going on. JB is a master at pattern recognition and he nailed last winter and the summer (not including the hurricane forecast)...but you can see him slowly backing away now from what looked like a great pattern based on the indexes in the fall...sometimes the sensible weather just doesnt cooperate. Pretty sure no one had snow in the Vegas and El Paso areas figured into their outlooks! As JB said about last year being a good lab for a future meteorology class, so will this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Let's call it what it is (and I read him every day)...he said 76-77...December ended up NOTHING like that winter....he said 50% or more of the US with snow cover for Christmas....instead we had raging warmth coast to coast. He did mention a December pullback, but if you go back and read, he called for pattern change around 12/10 and then kept pushing it back and back. Sorry, but his December calls were not good at all. Why I am I picking on him? He's first to bark about how bad NOAA is and how he called x first, well, let's point out the bad with the good then. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Really? Can you show me anywhere it was cold? (outside of 10,000 feet in the Rockies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 well as a wxbell subscriber, I listen to and read JB's stuff almost daily. He did say, many times, over and over again back in early December that once the cold came back, (which he continually moved back, (delayed not denied...his favorite line), he said IT WOULD LOCK IN for the rest of the winter. HIs words, not my imagination. No mention of anything 'locking in' lately. He often uses phrases, like "I don't ever remember seeing anything like this before...", or "this is as though i drew the map...", implying it's off the charts....he does this regularly. He always tosses in extreme analogs, like '76 and 77-78, (which he has used both so far this season). He can always find some obscure index or ensemble run, or foreign model to say, "see, this is exactly what I was talking about". Or he'll bash the gfs and hug the euro until the gfs looks cold and snowy and the euro turns warm...then the gfs is gonna score the coupe and the euro is up to it's old biases. But in the end who cares? Believe it or not I like JB, It's how he rolls. I recognize it and take it for what it's worth. But to deny he hypes the cold and snow? That's just absurd and insulting to us veteran forum weenies :lol:i do you subscribe to Wxbell just in the winter? i havent pulled the trigger yet because there is nothing showing up that is getting me excited enough to pay for better graphics. Anyway....when is our 76-77 winter going to start according to JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 do you subscribe to Wxbell just in the winter? i havent pulled the trigger yet because there is nothing showing up that is getting me excited enough to pay for better graphics. Anyway....when is our 76-77 winter going to start according to JB? 2076-77... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 do you subscribe to Wxbell just in the winter? i havent pulled the trigger yet because there is nothing showing up that is getting me excited enough to pay for better graphics. Anyway....when is our 76-77 winter going to start according to JB? never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 11-12 and it isn't even close. The most boring winter ever to produce 10"+ then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 2076-77... By that time instead of a snow days schools will have allotted flood days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There are two good things that I can think of that have come from this miserable pattern for us: 1. California has gotten some very needed rain 2. I no longer have a desire to sign up for any of these long range forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 unless Jan turns out to be very different the odds are high that MY winter forecast is going to be BUST.... that doesnt mean Winter is OVER BUT it does mean that I am going to be WRONG At least u will admit it . That clown jb will still claim victory. Someway or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 do you subscribe to Wxbell just in the winter? i havent pulled the trigger yet because there is nothing showing up that is getting me excited enough to pay for better graphics. Anyway....when is our 76-77 winter going to start according to JB? I signed up in Nov....will cancel in Feb or March depending on how things look. $80-$100 for some winter entertainment, (plus it's a tax write off for me too lol), and I love the model stuff....even though the snowfall maps are horrendously overdone. If you've read and watched JB long enough, like you and I have, you've learned to read between the lines or pick up his little nuances and patterns in his videos....ie his mouth is saying cold but his eyes are saying torch.. 76--77 part of the winter is done, that was just for Nov-Dec. Now we transtion into '77-'78. Another trademark of JB, analogs are always in motion, changing, and updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I signed up in Nov....will cancel in Feb or March depending on how things look. $80-$100 for some winter entertainment, (plus it's a tax write off for me too lol), and I love the model stuff....even though the snowfall maps are horrendously overdone. If you've read and watched JB long enough, like you and I have, you've learned to read between the lines or pick up his little nuances and patterns in his videos....ie his mouth is saying cold but his eyes are saying torch.. 76--77 part of the winter is done, that was just for Nov-Dec. Now we transtion into '77-'78. Another trademark of JB, analogs are always in motion, changing, and updating. Exactly. You'll note today he mentions the 77-78 analog, but notes "its only for a few days" which the translation means the cold will be in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Can you show me anywhere it was cold? (outside of 10,000 feet in the Rockies) Just because you see a lot of pretty citrus colors on a map, does not mean it shows raging warmth coast to coast." I see 0 to +4 departures nationwide, with the vast majority of the country being +0 to +2, and an area the size of Rhode Island with a +4 departure. In our part of the country, our positive departure only happened due to a warm few days after Christmas. So, let's not lie about how December played out. Reality is plenty bad on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just because you see a lot of pretty citrus colors on a map, does not mean it shows raging warmth coast to coast." I see 0 to +4 departures nationwide, with the vast majority of the country being +0 to +2, and an area the size of Rhode Island with a +4 departure. In our part of the country, our positive departure only happened due to a warm few days after Christmas. So, let's not lie about how December played out. Reality is plenty bad on its own. Still a pretty warm month with no cold air whatsoever over any of north america...thanks pretty remarkable and nowhere near the -1 to -3 that was predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still a pretty warm month with no cold air whatsoever over any of north america...thanks pretty remarkable and nowhere near the -1 to -3 that was predicted.That is certainly true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JB needs to swallow a little pride and take out the trash. His vids are becoming unwatchable. They are the predictable posting of 850 temp anomalies as a way to claim he has been correct about the cold. We don't live at 5000 feet and we don't care about 850 temp ensembles. He sounded irritated in todays vid. He said HE is frustrated with the frustration of his readers. According to Joe, they/we just don't appreciate or understand what makes a forecast accurate. Today he said if we all had one good snow under our belts, we would be much more sympathetic towards him. He is wrong. It's about a 'perception' that he is 100% responsible for constructing. If he thinks his readers have a warped perception of his forecasts, that is 100% his fault, not his readers. If I have a customer that had a different expectation than what I delivered, that is MY fault for failing to communicate, not theirs. Regardless of whether or not an 850 temp anomaly map was nailed or not, regardless of whether or not 10 days late on a cold shot is just a delayed snafu...or as he called it...."I caught the pass but it was out of bounds", (nice excuse), he never once put forth a forecast that hinted in the slightest that we would have a rainstorm into the lakes on xmas and another one on new years...period. In fact just a couple of days ago he said the new years storm would not cut to the lakes and that all the folks riding the positive NAO would be proven it's insignificance. Oops. You're a good man Joe, you know your sh*t, you're entertaining, but take out the trash, put aside the excuses, stop blaming your readers for failing to comprehend your words, and lastly start talking about the 10 meter forecast, like you did back in the olden days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JB needs to swallow a little pride and take out the trash. His vids are becoming unwatchable. They are the predictable posting of 850 temp anomalies as a way to claim he has been correct about the cold. We don't live at 5000 feet and we don't care about 850 temp ensembles. He sounded irritated in todays vid. He said HE is frustrated with the frustration of his readers. According to Joe, they/we just don't appreciate or understand what makes a forecast accurate. Today he said if we all had one good snow under our belts, we would be much more sympathetic towards him. He is wrong. It's about a 'perception' that he is 100% responsible for constructing. If he thinks his readers have a warped perception of his forecasts, that is 100% his fault, not his readers. If I have a customer that had a different expectation than what I delivered, that is MY fault for failing to communicate, not theirs. Regardless of whether or not an 850 temp anomaly map was nailed or not, regardless of whether or not 10 days late on a cold shot is just a delayed snafu...or as he called it...."I caught the pass but it was out of bounds", (nice excuse), he never once put forth a forecast that hinted in the slightest that we would have a rainstorm into the lakes on xmas and another one on new years...period. In fact just a couple of days ago he said the new years storm would not cut to the lakes and that all the folks riding the positive NAO would be proven it's insignificance. Oops. You're a good man Joe, you know your sh*t, you're entertaining, but take out the trash, put aside the excuses, stop blaming your readers for failing to comprehend your words, and lastly start talking about the 10 meter forecast, like you did back in the olden days. All this is somehow surprising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JB needs to swallow a little pride and take out the trash. His vids are becoming unwatchable. They are the predictable posting of 850 temp anomalies as a way to claim he has been correct about the cold. We don't live at 5000 feet and we don't care about 850 temp ensembles. He sounded irritated in todays vid. He said HE is frustrated with the frustration of his readers. According to Joe, they/we just don't appreciate or understand what makes a forecast accurate. Today he said if we all had one good snow under our belts, we would be much more sympathetic towards him. He is wrong. It's about a 'perception' that he is 100% responsible for constructing. If he thinks his readers have a warped perception of his forecasts, that is 100% his fault, not his readers. If I have a customer that had a different expectation than what I delivered, that is MY fault for failing to communicate, not theirs. Regardless of whether or not an 850 temp anomaly map was nailed or not, regardless of whether or not 10 days late on a cold shot is just a delayed snafu...or as he called it...."I caught the pass but it was out of bounds", (nice excuse), he never once put forth a forecast that hinted in the slightest that we would have a rainstorm into the lakes on xmas and another one on new years...period. In fact just a couple of days ago he said the new years storm would not cut to the lakes and that all the folks riding the positive NAO would be proven it's insignificance. Oops. You're a good man Joe, you know your sh*t, you're entertaining, but take out the trash, put aside the excuses, stop blaming your readers for failing to comprehend your words, and lastly start talking about the 10 meter forecast, like you did back in the olden days. Couldn't agree more. December finished nowhere near his forecast and there's been zero snow for most places in the midwest and east. He needs to address that and what's gone wrong. His call was for "winter to lock in mid to late December through at least the end of January" Ooops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JB needs to swallow a little pride and take out the trash. His vids are becoming unwatchable. They are the predictable posting of 850 temp anomalies as a way to claim he has been correct about the cold. We don't live at 5000 feet and we don't care about 850 temp ensembles. He sounded irritated in todays vid. He said HE is frustrated with the frustration of his readers. According to Joe, they/we just don't appreciate or understand what makes a forecast accurate. Today he said if we all had one good snow under our belts, we would be much more sympathetic towards him. He is wrong. It's about a 'perception' that he is 100% responsible for constructing. If he thinks his readers have a warped perception of his forecasts, that is 100% his fault, not his readers. If I have a customer that had a different expectation than what I delivered, that is MY fault for failing to communicate, not theirs. Regardless of whether or not an 850 temp anomaly map was nailed or not, regardless of whether or not 10 days late on a cold shot is just a delayed snafu...or as he called it...."I caught the pass but it was out of bounds", (nice excuse), he never once put forth a forecast that hinted in the slightest that we would have a rainstorm into the lakes on xmas and another one on new years...period. In fact just a couple of days ago he said the new years storm would not cut to the lakes and that all the folks riding the positive NAO would be proven it's insignificance. Oops. You're a good man Joe, you know your sh*t, you're entertaining, but take out the trash, put aside the excuses, stop blaming your readers for failing to comprehend your words, and lastly start talking about the 10 meter forecast, like you did back in the olden days. Blaming your subscribers for not understanding your forecasts is tantamount to Mayor DiBlasio blaming the press for his problems. JB should blame his local pizzeria for keeping their oven doors open too much for all this hot air. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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