Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

[Brian5671]

Henry is the worst, can't believe people read him.  Accubust had a warm snowless December, how's that working out?

[Stormlover74]

Henry is the worst, can't believe people read him.  Accubust had a warm snowless December, how's that working out?

Can't believe its called Winter storm electra

[NEG NAO]

anybody follow this site and what is your opinion of it if you do ?

 

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/

[SnoSki14]

Henry is the worst, can't believe people read him. Accubust had a warm snowless December, how's that working out?

I was actually happy when they forecasted a warm, relatively below normal snowfall winter because I knew they would bust. I see nothing but more cold and snow opportunities for the next weeks.

Things might even get better if the PNA goes positive towards the end of the month.

[White Gorilla]

HM is saying torch next week that will melt all snow before Xmas. He is also saying winter quits early with a mild and wet Super Bowl. WTH??

[Kaner587]

Henry margusity if that's who you are referring to is NOT HM. HM is predicting a short lived warm up next wk followed by stormy and more cold for the foreseeable future

[NEG NAO]

This is the best snow map for this storm I have seen yet

 

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=61214&Itemid=179

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Submit your mPing reports.  (via mPing app on any cellphone)

 

And your report shows up live here within 5 minutes

 

http://www.newjerseyweather.com/new-jersey-radar.html

 

( a lot of snow reports currently)

[NEG NAO]

this guy is really bulish on a prolonged wintry snowy pattern in January

 

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=64814&Itemid=179

[Stormlover74]

Ironic since he continues to obsess over NYC's obsession with snow

 

From DTs facebook:

 

The new Saturday midday 12z GFS has now come out and a continues to be a clueless model with regard to East Coast snowstorms. The 12z SAT operational or regular GFS is STILL not in agreement with its own GFS ENSEMBLE from early this morning.

Keep in Mind that 12 and 24 hours ago the operational GFS was actually taking the system for January 3 well inland so that the rain snow line was pushed into Albany and Boston!!! LOL .

this Saturday run of the GFS ...even though would seem to show a promising snowstorm for the northeast and specifically New England ...has come considerably further to the SOUTH so with anything one can make the argument that this is a south trend.

The forecast process does not stop and the trends do not come to an End simply because the model gives you the solution that you WANT to see . It does NOT work that way. That doesn't mean that if you are one of those fanatically aggressive and irrational in NYC CT northern NJ you cannot latch onto the 12z operational GFS if you want to. You most certainly can do so if you so se desire But it has always been my experience to use science over snow fantasy

[jm1220]

Ironic since he continues to obsess over NYC's obsession with snow

 

From DTs facebook:

 

The new Saturday midday 12z GFS has now come out and a continues to be a clueless model with regard to East Coast snowstorms. The 12z SAT operational or regular GFS is STILL not in agreement with its own GFS ENSEMBLE from early this morning.

Keep in Mind that 12 and 24 hours ago the operational GFS was actually taking the system for January 3 well inland so that the rain snow line was pushed into Albany and Boston!!! LOL .

this Saturday run of the GFS ...even though would seem to show a promising snowstorm for the northeast and specifically New England ...has come considerably further to the SOUTH so with anything one can make the argument that this is a south trend.

The forecast process does not stop and the trends do not come to an End simply because the model gives you the solution that you WANT to see . It does NOT work that way. That doesn't mean that if you are one of those fanatically aggressive and irrational in NYC CT northern NJ you cannot latch onto the 12z operational GFS if you want to. You most certainly can do so if you so se desire But it has always been my experience to use science over snow fantasy

He was trying to find any rationale he could to minimize what NYC would see from the 2/8 event last year and bashed NYC all he could. He only seemed to cave into the idea of NYC seeing something significant at the last minute.

[green tube]

"fanatically aggressive" lol.  that would be a good description of himself.

i like DT but just like the models themselves, he has his own biases.  historically he likes emphasizing storms that wont come north, only to have them come north.

i think his most consistent success has come in recognizing pattern changes... particularly end of pattern changes, when others have failed. 

[Stormlover74]

"fanatically aggressive" lol.  that would be a good description of himself.

i like DT but just like the models themselves, he has his own biases.  historically he likes emphasizing storms that wont come north, only to have them come north.

i think his most consistent success has come in recognizing pattern changes... particularly end of pattern changes, when others have failed. 

and now watch the Euro jump towards the GFS operational

[green tube]

and now watch the Euro jump towards the GFS operational

 

i dont know why he was acting so definitive.... this thing is light-years away for specifics. but to his credit he was discussing the threat before anyone. it's also funny how he cant stand this forum, but he puts up with posts on facebook that make this forum look like nothing but Mensa members.

[Animal]

Ironic since he continues to obsess over NYC's obsession with snow

 

From DTs facebook:

 

The new Saturday midday 12z GFS has now come out and a continues to be a clueless model with regard to East Coast snowstorms. The 12z SAT operational or regular GFS is STILL not in agreement with its own GFS ENSEMBLE from early this morning.

Keep in Mind that 12 and 24 hours ago the operational GFS was actually taking the system for January 3 well inland so that the rain snow line was pushed into Albany and Boston!!! LOL .

this Saturday run of the GFS ...even though would seem to show a promising snowstorm for the northeast and specifically New England ...has come considerably further to the SOUTH so with anything one can make the argument that this is a south trend.

The forecast process does not stop and the trends do not come to an End simply because the model gives you the solution that you WANT to see . It does NOT work that way. That doesn't mean that if you are one of those fanatically aggressive and irrational in NYC CT northern NJ you cannot latch onto the 12z operational GFS if you want to. You most certainly can do so if you so se desire But it has always been my experience to use science over snow fantasy

 

 

Wonder if he will spin the euro as wrong. It could be wrong, but odds are increasing for some sort of snow event next Thursday or Friday.

[Stormlover74]

I like the eastern PA weather authority page on fb. they posted the euro snowmap

 

 

We are very close to sounding the alarms for Jan 2nd/3rd...

Now before we go nuts with this storm, we are still throwing some caution out there. We have liked this time frame for a big storm threat since our long range analysis was conducted on December 16th... so we were fans of this storm showing up. It now is. We will acknowledge the potential for something big, but there is still a timing thing that will be narrowed down in the coming days. Strong ensemble support for this storm as well. So the following is just what the model is showing verbatim, not an official call from us yet. This image is from the hot off the press 12z European model and this was literally 6 hours late in phasing the jet streams and full cyclogenesis from producing a 1-2 foot blizzard. Regardless, the European model is putting up high numbers for this storm much like the GFS did earlier, and since it will be a high ratio event, you can multiply these numbers indicated on the image by 1.5 to get a more accurate estimation. Very strong signal. But signal is all... we now look for narrowing down and consistency in future model runs.

[PB GFI]

DT hates the NY board , he`s always had a dislike for this forum . His personal silver lining no matter what his forecast is to go out of his way

to show how NYC could get screwed when it comes to winter weather , sometimes damaging  his own credibility  .

 

Which is surprising that he takes that much effort to do this considering he`s a tremendous Met .

[Storm At Sea]

+1

DT hates the NY board , he`s always had a dislike for this forum . His personal silver lining no matter what his forecast is to go out of his way

to show how NYC could get screwed when it comes to winter weather , sometimes damaging his own credibility .

Which is surprising that he takes that much effort to do this considering he`s a tremendous Met .

[NEG NAO]

DT hates the NY board , he`s always had a dislike for this forum . His personal silver lining no matter what his forecast is to go out of his way

to show how NYC could get screwed when it comes to winter weather , sometimes damaging  his own credibility  .

 

Which is surprising that he takes that much effort to do this considering he`s a tremendous Met .

yes I agree - now he is waiting for the european ensembles and is calling us no nothing weenies because we are latching on to the OP runs of the models - anyone have the Euro ensembles ???

[StatenWx]

DT hates the NY board , he`s always had a dislike for this forum . His personal silver lining no matter what his forecast is to go out of his way

to show how NYC could get screwed when it comes to winter weather , sometimes damaging his own credibility .

Which is surprising that he takes that much effort to do this considering he`s a tremendous Met .

What's his beef with us?

[PB GFI]

yes I agree - now he is waiting for the european ensembles and is calling us no nothing weenies because we are latching on to the OP runs of the models - anyone have the Euro ensembles ???

Out by 3 on my site . I hate late phases , he`s wrong regardless because his argument was suppression . So now if

the later phase favors NE and NYC is on the southern edge , he has to know he cant see I told u NY guys so .

I don't like 6 in Philly but 20 in Boston 5 days out , makes me cautious that the southern side comes NE .

Would love to see the phase at South of DC to give us some wiggle room  Just an opinion .

[PB GFI]

What's his beef with us?

We are a difficult group .

[StatenWx]

We are a difficult group .

The weenie support group is nothing to scoff at.

[earthlight]

What's his beef with us?

This forum lacks serious post quality. I love all of you guys but really, it's awful at times. There has to be a breaking point and I'm not sure what it is. But people need to really start thinking before they post. Think about quality discussion and think about what your post will add to it before you post it. That is the base of the issue.

There is also a very odd sense of entitlement on this forum and it causes a lot of bickering and arguing -- I don't understand it either. You're not all that great, I'm not all that great. We're talking about weather.

I completely understand why some meteorologists are fed up with this forum. And as much as I want to fix it I don't have the energy to sit here all day and delete posts.

[PB GFI]

The weenie support group is nothing to scoff at.

I think we sling more mud at each other here than other threads , and there are a lot of people who have there

way , so maybe he just  takes offense

[PB GFI]

This forum lacks serious post quality. I love all of you guys but really, it's awful at times. There has to be a breaking point and I'm not sure what it is. But people need to really start thinking before they post. Think about quality discussion and think about what your post will add to it before you post it. That is the base of the issue.

There is also a very odd sense of entitlement on this forum and it causes a lot of bickering and arguing -- I don't understand it either. You're not all that great, I'm not all that great. We're talking about weather.

I completely understand why some meteorologists are fed up with this forum. And as much as I want to fix it I don't have the energy to sit here all day and delete posts.

You beat me to it . Been guilty of it in the past , so I hear what he`s saying .

[Storm At Sea]

It does not take much to ban a poster for 2-3 days. I think people would learn their lessons. It worked well with NEwx and WW. There are a handful of folks that destroy this board.

This forum lacks serious post quality. I love all of you guys but really, it's awful at times. There has to be a breaking point and I'm not sure what it is. But people need to really start thinking before they post. Think about quality discussion and think about what your post will add to it before you post it. That is the base of the issue.

There is also a very odd sense of entitlement on this forum and it causes a lot of bickering and arguing -- I don't understand it either. You're not all that great, I'm not all that great. We're talking about weather.

I completely understand why some meteorologists are fed up with this forum. And as much as I want to fix it I don't have the energy to sit here all day and delete posts.

[StatenWx]

This forum lacks serious post quality. I love all of you guys but really, it's awful at times. There has to be a breaking point and I'm not sure what it is. But people need to really start thinking before they post. Think about quality discussion and think about what your post will add to it before you post it. That is the base of the issue.

There is also a very odd sense of entitlement on this forum and it causes a lot of bickering and arguing -- I don't understand it either. You're not all that great, I'm not all that great. We're talking about weather.

I completely understand why some meteorologists are fed up with this forum. And as much as I want to fix it I don't have the energy to sit here all day and delete posts.

I completely agree that we need to work on posting and the quality of the posts, but to take offense because some weenies post nonsense or disagree with you is completely ridiculous. He needs to chill out and get over whatever complex he has about this forum.

[NEG NAO]

This forum lacks serious post quality. I love all of you guys but really, it's awful at times. There has to be a breaking point and I'm not sure what it is. But people need to really start thinking before they post. Think about quality discussion and think about what your post will add to it before you post it. That is the base of the issue.

There is also a very odd sense of entitlement on this forum and it causes a lot of bickering and arguing -- I don't understand it either. You're not all that great, I'm not all that great. We're talking about weather.

I completely understand why some meteorologists are fed up with this forum. And as much as I want to fix it I don't have the energy to sit here all day and delete posts.

I think if they just stop posting the one word comments and comments like - " I sure hope it snows so I can go sleigh riding " that would be a victory in itself for the main discussion threads- also maybe its an idea to just create a thread where METS are only allowed to post and is just a read thread for everyone else - that might make them happier. Also you need to assign someone to be able to delete comments that are reported as the banter - maybe select individuals to work certain shifts.......

[nyblizz44]

It does not take much to ban a poster for 2-3 days. I think people would learn their lessons. It worked well with NEwx and WW. There are a handful of folks that destroy this board.

 

I so agree that I would write the word AGREE 100000 Times! Cant have children in here when there big boys & girls who are here to learn & discuss weather!