Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

[Rtd208]

Good blog discussion by DT on what is going on with the winter pattern so far and where we might be going.

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

[Morris]

Good blog discussion by DT on what is going on with the winter pattern so far and where we might be going.

http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

A pleasure to read.

[Brian5671]

Good blog discussion by DT on what is going on with the winter pattern so far and where we might be going.

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

Great discussion by DT

[nyblizz44]

Great discussion by DT

best explanation I've ever read of the QBO &pertinence to our current pattern

[White Gorilla]

Rayno on next week potential.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/winter-returns-for-many-next-w/3901417444001?channel=top_story

[White Gorilla]

Good blog discussion by DT on what is going on with the winter pattern so far and where we might be going.

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/

I learned a lot here. Awesome! Get that QBO to rise!

[Mophstymeo]

Rayno on next week potential.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/winter-returns-for-many-next-w/3901417444001?channel=top_story

I love Bernie Rayno, but if he's right, it's yet another annoying rain storm.

The next Disney weather-inspired animated film: Flooded

Followed, most likely, by the summer smash: Roasted

[donsutherland1]

On Twitter, Joe Bastardi stated:

 

Bloomberg energy wire used a quote from a guy, without checking to see what was factual. How do they not even check to see if guy is right?

 

I read the story in question, and it is, in fact, a case where the media (not just business media) yet again did not check the facts before publishing the story.

 

The following are excerpts from the story in question:

 

“We don’t see anything scary in the forecast,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “You had this psyche where people were worried about a polar vortex; we had a cold October and a cold early November, and boom, if you were long you are wrong.”

 

October was warmer than normal almost nationwide. The biggest outbreak of cold occurred in the mid-November timeframe.

 

Below are the temperature anomaly maps:

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-26/natural-gas-futures-drop-below-3-for-first-time-since-2012.html

 

This is one case where I agree with Joe Bastardi's taking issue. Forecasts are one thing. Facts are quite another.

[Guest Pamela]

On Twitter, Joe Bastardi stated:

 

Bloomberg energy wire used a quote from a guy, without checking to see what was factual. How do they not even check to see if guy is right?

A marketable news story & the facts are not necessarily compatible...in any sphere.

[Brian5671]

Bastardi is deflecting, while he is right about the facts (October and early Nov were not cold), the fact of the forecast is there is nothing scary in the next few weeks...a few degrees below seasonable norms and snowless fields from Syracuse to Cleveland to DC

[Guest Pamela]

Steve D thinks surprises await. 700 is colder than expected.

In fairness, I have to admit that Steve D. has put together perhaps the most consistent forecasting record of any met during the modern era...he's been wrong every time.

[Guest Pamela]

Man ... I'd just subscribe for the comedic value. 

Yes...but it is a tragic comedy. 

 

In fairness, Joe Bastardi is 100 times more knowledgeable than the individual I mentioned in the preceding post...he comprehends synoptic & dynamic meteorology very well...he makes cogent arguments in his long range forecasts...even though they do not pan out all the time... and he has some insight into climatic theory...unfortunately, I do believe that in the last 10 years or so as he has become more well known...he has had a bit of a tendency to forgo issuing a sound forecast in favor of a more sensationalized forecast...in hopes that verification of the sensationalized forecast will result in widespread public esteem. 

[SnoSki14]

According to Larry Cosgrove from the New England forum snow may wait until end of January and February if nothing happens prior to the January thaw (nevermind that we've basically been in a thaw since Dec 1st).

Mets must really be reaching now that all their forecasts are crumbling beneath them. Still feel 06/07 is now looking like a good possibility with most of our wintry weather being in February.

[Brian5671]

Jb has to be crying this morning along with all of us, horrible fail so far

[NEXtreme]

Jb has to be crying this morning along with all of us, horrible fail so far

What's the horrible fail?

He has done very well nearly every month so far, except December where he had very marginal coolness for the midle of the nation, which turned out to be a couple of degrees above normal. He had above normal temps for the rest of the country for Dec. He has been screaming since mid-November that Decembers are notorious for pullbacks from the cold in mild El Nino years, which is where we're at now. He's only anout 5 days late on the cold for late Dec that he was calling for 3-4 weeks ago!

Not really all that horrible.

[PB GFI]

Jb has to be crying this morning along with all of us, horrible fail so far

Brian you have to stop lying JB s call In early Nov it was gona look like 76 the CONUS temps were close.

He said this Dec was going to look like 02 where most of the CONUS was above normal . He never ever said Dec would be cold and snowy. Ever.

He always said Pos enso winters are back loaded. You are looking for someone to be responsible for your irrational wire to wire cold and snowy expectations.

His call for jan is that the first 10 plus days are cold and the pullback should be brief and re fire again.

[Snowshack]

In fairness, I have to admit that Steve D. has put together perhaps the most consistent forecasting record of any met during the modern era...he's been wrong every time.

You're probably correct.  But i'll often read a synopsis of one of these vendor's forecasts or discussions posted here, and then go read the original forecast or discussion referenced and find what was posted here was pretty inaccurate or is a complete inference.   

[DTWXRISK]

 hard to   match that  with issuign winter forecast  in   early JULY  and mentioning 1976-77  every  other   paragraph
 

Yes...but it is a tragic comedy. 

 

In fairness, Joe Bastardi is 100 times more knowledgeable than the individual I mentioned in the preceding post...he comprehends synoptic & dynamic meteorology very well...he makes cogent arguments in his long range forecasts...even though they do not pan out all the time... and he has some insight into climatic theory...unfortunately, I do believe that in the last 10 years or so as he has become more well known...he has had a bit of a tendency to forgo issuing a sound forecast in favor of a more sensationalized forecast...in hopes that verification of the sensationalized forecast will result in widespread public esteem. 

[DTWXRISK]

 um so his  Hurricane  forecast bust dont   matter ?  Look  it  obvious from your  POLITICS and your links  that  you have on  every  post 
you are deeply  in  JB's corner  which explains  you   serious  perception  problems .

the 1976-77 thing is  Big deal and its aint going to happen

the  50%  of  conus   Covered  by 1 "snow  on Xmas ...

 and if i you go back and  READ  the post  in the    beginning of the month   he  called for the cold flip to occur     much earlier. Now to be fair so  did I   but  I am not  dancing around here   trying to convince others  that I  said things I didnt actually  say 
 

What's the horrible fail?

He has done very well nearly every month so far, except December where he had very marginal coolness for the midle of the nation, which turned out to be a couple of degrees above normal. He had above normal temps for the rest of the country for Dec. He has been screaming since mid-November that Decembers are notorious for pullbacks from the cold in mild El Nino years, which is where we're at now. He's only anout 5 days late on the cold for late Dec that he was calling for 3-4 weeks ago!

Not really all that horrible.

[Guest Pamela]

 hard to   match that  with issuign winter forecast  in   early JULY  and mentioning 1976-77  every  other   paragraph

 

 

I'm glad to see you've returned...fulfilling that MacArthurian streak in you...as for Bastardi...I think he does possess good basic knowledge in the requisite areas...but he is more willing to gamble on an extreme forecast with a slight chance of verifying rather than a reasonable one with a higher potential to verify...but no one would remember...its basically called going for the home run.  If he's right...its a legendary call...if he's wrong...its  either forgotten or he might be able to effectively dissemble come spring time.

[rossi]

um so his Hurricane forecast bust dont matter ? Look it obvious from your POLITICS and your links that you have on every post u are deeply in JB's corner which explains you serous perception problems .

the 1976-77 thing is Big deal and its aint going to happen

the 50% of conus Covered by 1 "snow on Xmas ...

and if i you go back and READ the post in the beginning of the month he called for the cold flip to occur much earlier. Now to be fair so did I but I am not dancing around here trying to convince others that I said things I didnt actually say

Do you dislike

JB because he is more successful than you? Have some respect for a fellow meteorologist. He never complains about you as far as i can see.

[Guest Pamela]

I'm glad to see you've returned...fulfilling that MacArthurian streak in you...as for Bastardi...I think he does possess good basic knowledge in the requisite areas...but he is more willing to gamble on an extreme forecast with a slight chance of verifying rather than a reasonable one with a higher potential to verify...but no one would remember...its basically called going for the home run.  If he's right...its a legendary call...if he's wrong...its  either forgotten or he might be able to effectively dissemble come spring time.

 

I've noticed that people, as they get older...particularly if they have narcissistic tendencies...will be more likely to say things or act in ways that are somewhat more shocking to the public conscience in order to achieve the notoriety that their psyches so desperately need..they call it "remaining relevant"...like the fading, older actress who is far more willing to appear in a risqué scene at 40 than she would at 20...because she can see that the end of her career and the fame and adulation she so desperately craves..is fast approaching...I would see promulgators of "worst winter ever" forecasts in a similar vein.

[Brian5671]

Brian you have to stop lying JB s call In early Nov it was gona look like 76 the CONUS temps were close.

He said this Dec was going to look like 02 where most of the CONUS was above normal . He never ever said Dec would be cold and snowy. Ever.

He always said Pos enso winters are back loaded. You are looking for someone to be responsible for your irrational wire to wire cold and snowy expectations.

His call for jan is that the first 10 plus days are cold and the pullback should be brief and re fire again.

Let's call it what it is (and I read him every day)...he said 76-77...December ended up NOTHING like that winter....he said 50% or more of the US with snow cover for Christmas....instead we had raging warmth coast to coast.    He did mention a December pullback, but if you go back and read, he called for pattern change around 12/10 and then kept pushing it back and back.  

Sorry, but his December calls were not good at all.  Why I am I picking  on him?  He's first to bark about how bad NOAA is and how he called x first, well, let's point out the bad with the good then.

[DTWXRISK]

 there is    REASON   why  THIS  keeps happening  

LEFT SIDE  is    the  ECMWF  ENS  from  DEC 12 .. valid  for  DEC 25    

the right  Side is  ACTUAL  500 mb   on  DEC 25   

 

[swamplover56]

Dt glad to see you on do you think at some point we flip to a snowier pattern? Can we still see near normal snowfall for the season in the nyc area?

[PB GFI]

Let's call it what it is (and I read him every day)...he said 76-77...December ended up NOTHING like that winter....he said 50% or more of the US with snow cover for Christmas....instead we had raging warmth coast to coast. He did mention a December pullback, but if you go back and read, he called for pattern change around 12/10 and then kept pushing it back and back.

Sorry, but his December calls were not good at all. Why I am I picking on him? He's first to bark about how bad NOAA is and how he called x first, well, let's point out the bad with the good then.

Dude. Who cares. The guy did well in Nov and got Dec wrong. I'm not going to go back to his hurricane forecast which was awful .

Many though the flip in Dec would happen faster. So what.

JB somehow owes you a pound of flesh because your idea that an " EPIC" winter was coming is not.

I have no idea where you ever read that from any forecaster.

I could care less about JB forecasts or anyone else's Busts but your irrational expectations of a wire to wire cold and extreme snowy winter makes your daily crying insufferable .

Pos enso years are sometimes back loaded and if this one is not then you have to get over it.

[Guest Pamela]

Let's call it what it is (and I read him every day)...he said 76-77...December ended up NOTHING like that winter....he said 50% or more of the US with snow cover for Christmas....instead we had raging warmth coast to coast.    He did mention a December pullback, but if you go back and read, he called for pattern change around 12/10 and then kept pushing it back and back.  

Sorry, but his December calls were not good at all.  Why I am I picking  on him?  He's first to bark about how bad NOAA is and how he called x first, well, let's point out the bad with the good then.

 

I recall he did get 2007-08 right...I even recall his December poem by memory!

 

 

A clipper!  A clipper!

 

But the pattern's a flipper

 

Ending winter for the rest of the East...

 

(Just prior to a small mid Atlantic bound Alberta Clipper put down a few inches near  DC & BWI in December...and that was it for the winter).  He may have let it go to his head...

[Brian5671]

I recall he did get 2007-08 right...I even recall his December poem by memory!

 

 

A clipper!  A clipper!

 

But the pattern's a flipper

 

Ending winter for the rest of the East...

 

(Just prior to a small mid Atlantic bound Alberta Clipper put down a few inches near the DC & BWI in December...and that was it for the winter).  He may have let it go to his head...

He nailed that winter. One of the few warm ones he got right... He's nailed several winters, 02-03, 09-10, 13-14....he's great in cold winters.  He busted horribly in 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 all of which featured coast to coast warmth despite him calling for the cold to come and silly things like Fab Feb which never came close to verifying.

[DTWXRISK]

 
unless Jan   turns out to be very  different   the odds are high  that MY  winter forecast  is  going to be    BUST....

 
that doesnt mean  Winter is OVER 

 

 BUT  it does mean  that I am going to be  WRONG

[SnoSki14]

January could still end up okay but in a different way than most mets predicted. Thankfully there are multiple ways for us to get decent snows without a -NAO and even a -AO.