MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Mr G on Twitter We still think a couple of inches is possible in the NYC 1/2 foot or more nw 10" 60 miles N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Joe cioffi thinks Long Island may flip over to snow for a short time. I'm not buying it yet but well see. Any model or person saying that must be taken with a grain of salt. if we do it will be very brief and likely with rain/taint mixed in as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 JB thinks that the GFS is too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 DT posted on his Facebook page. Its a great read about why winter should really be cranking from mid to late January thru March http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 JB thinks that the GFS is too warm it better be or his forecast could be going down the crapper. His video today had some hints in it that he's a bit nervous IMO. I've followed him long enough to know how he lays the ground work for a possible exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 it better be or his forecast could be going down the crapper. His video today had some hints in it that he's a bit nervous IMO. I've followed him long enough to know how he lays the ground work for a possible exit. I swear that could not be further from the truth . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I swear that could not be further from the truth . If you listen to his video, he talks about "only God knows the future" and that "we'll see what happens" "that doesnt mean it has to come" In my years of following him, that language is often a sign of him starting to worry that it's all not going to work out. IMO of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If you listen to his video, he talks about "only God knows the future" and that "we'll see what happens" "that doesnt mean it has to come" In my years of following him, that language is often a sign of him starting to worry that it's all not going to work out. Just trust me on this one . Not sure if he busts but he likes his forecast thinks this is like dec 02- and jan - feb will look like 03 almost everyone has a very similar approach to a back loaded winter . I say back loaded like we ever get wire to wire cold we just don`t . Hang in there from the 20th on things should get clearer and more palatable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JB, Steve D and Joe Cioffi are starting to mention the possibility of a nor easter next week. JB says that the GFS is playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JB, Steve D and Joe Cioffi are starting to mention the possibility of a nor easter next week. JB says that the GFS is playing catchup. JB also tweeted a very good question https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/540195391019687936 Time to really start questioning some of these models outputs past day 5 IMO - maybe even past day 3 especially since they are not taking into account the possibility of that recurving Typhoon in the Pacific and the effects down the road on the weather pattern......now let me get back to working on the December snowfall contest - we need to figure out a way to get a good snowstorm this month since the amounts predicted for the most part were well above normal.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 any forecasts calling for above normal snow for December are on life support unless we get something last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 any forecasts calling for above normal snow for December are on life support unless we get something last week of the month. JB cut a vid for you this AM . I thought it was for ski - but the opening to his vid was for you today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 any forecasts calling for above normal snow for December are on life support unless we get something last week of the month. It only takes 4 or 5" of slop for that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 JB cut a vid for you this AM . I thought it was for ski - but the opening to his vid was for you today LOL! Classic. He does seem happy today so good news there! Where is he selling those flags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 any forecasts calling for above normal snow for December are on life support unless we get something last week of the month. Yup. Winter looks to be going down the tube quickly. Still a few weeks left in December but you can already hear the back peddling occuring soon. Middle of Janaury looks good , shot of something at the end of December How it should be to have a good to great winter. December - cold/snowy Janaury - epic cold with above normal snow February - epic cold/with above normal snow March - mild month/some snow April - welcome to spring Can't have a huge winter with out cold & snow in December, Janaury & February. This is confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yup. Winter looks to be going down the tube quickly. Still a few weeks left in December but you can already hear the back peddling occuring soon. Middle of Janaury looks good , shot of something at the end of December How it should be to have a good to great winter. December - cold/snowy Janaury - epic cold with above normal snow February - epic cold/with above normal snow March - mild month/some snow April - welcome to spring Can't have a huge winter with out cold & snow in December, Janaury & February. This is confirmed those winters are once a century.(95-96 is a good example) Folks came into this one (given all the big forecasts) expecting cold and blizzards commencing 12/1. Having a cold November only fueled those expectations. Plenty of time for this one to develop, but it likely will not be remembed for a cold and snowy December. But hey, neither was 93-94 which had a mild December until the last 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 those winters are once a century. Folks came into this one (given all the big forecasts) expecting cold and blizzards commencing 12/1. Having a cold November only fueled those expectations. Plenty of time for this one to develop, but it likely will not be remembed for a cold and snowy December. But hey, neither was 93-94 which had a mild December until the last 3-4 days Yeah the early cold and last week's storm got people thinking it was an early start to winter that would only get worse as we got into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nor'easter, Snow To Hit New Jersey Early Next Week Forecasters say while current models are uncertain, a 'significant' weather event may be on tap for Monday and Tuesday. By Kara Seymour (Patch Staff)December 5, 2014 at 8:21am A nor’easter could hit the East Coast early next week, forecasters are predicting. An “inland snow event” from Upstate New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania all the way to Northern New England is expected sometime Tuesday, according to the Weather Channel. “This could be a big event,” a Weather Channel meteorologistsaid in a video forecast Friday. Forecasters say that coastal flooding is definitely a possibility in the Jersey Shore and elsewhere. The National Weather Service (see map for 7 p.m. Tuesday) predicts that snow will hit northern New Jersey by Monday, and heavy rain will hit the Jersey Shore. Snow will then come to the Shore by Tuesday night. However, forecasters are stressing the uncertainanty of the storm scope and track at this point. Residents should stay tuned as a more reliable forecast is developed over the weekend, forecasters said. John Bolaris, a weather reporter for the Philadelphia Inquirer, said while he has “very low confidence” in the outcome of the nor’easter, he warns area residents of the possibility of a weather event that could have “a very significant impact” Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well they could be right about the coastal storm and it could have significant impacts, coastal flooding, heavy rains, strong winds but probably no snows to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well they could be right about the coastal storm and it could have significant impacts, coastal flooding, heavy rains, strong winds but probably no snows to speak of. Considering there is no real cold air in place, it would be hard for it to snow at the coast this go around, so that is no real surprise. But it will likely still be a significant no'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 DT "strong signs of MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE DEC 16-20... euro weeklies shows much colder pattern by Dec 20 POSSIBLY East coast winter weather threat DEC 22.... CFS weeklies also support this idea" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 ..you can add larry cosgrove,joe cioffi and joe bastardi ( not to mention the key posters here..earthlight, d. sutherland,isotherm et al ) to the impending pattern change..all seem to agree on or about 12/20..evidence seems overwhelming for a colder/stormier last 10 days of the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man this map is gonna bust horribly up here lol.. 4-8 imby? I hope I'm wrong but it isn't lookin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man this map is gonna bust horribly up here lol.. 4-8 imby? I hope I'm wrong but it isn't lookin goodModels underestimated the ZR potential until late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ..you can add larry cosgrove,joe cioffi and joe bastardi ( not to mention the key posters here..earthlight, d. sutherland,isotherm et al ) to the impending pattern change..all seem to agree on or about 12/20..evidence seems overwhelming for a colder/stormier last 10 days of the month.. Talk to me when it's less than 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Talk to me when it's less than 10 days away Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB in his video this AM talk about getting a High pressure in the right spot during a fairly mild period of 12/20-30 to get us snow. Ruh roh...mild through the end of the month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB in his video this AM talk about getting a High pressure in the right spot during a fairly mild period of 12/20-30 to get us snow. Ruh roh...mild through the end of the month??? Dont think 20th-30th is going to be mild. Probably normal to below normal. Dont know what was in his coffee this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Dont think 20th-30th is going to be mild. Probably normal to below normal. Dont know what was in his coffee this morning Granted I think he was talking nationwide, but he seems to be downplaying the idea of a flip in the near future-talked about the great winters having good Jan and Feb's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Granted I think he was talking nationwide, but he seems to be downplaying the idea of a flip in the near future-talked about the great winters having good Jan and Feb's. Thats a two headed monster. While that isnt a bad thing and goes with the Weak El Nino characteristic, a snowless or well below average snowfall for NYC in december historically means a below average winter in terms of snowfall. From the 20th on NYC-east i think can get the stars aligned for atleast a widespread 4"+ event to get us into january with atleast a decent baseline for a nice finish to winter JFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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