Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 read JBs latest LOL-rare for him to address his detractors (DT) like that. Great post though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Very nice write up on your winter forecast. I think we could be looking at an epic winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 LOL-rare for him to address his detractors (DT) like that. Great post though. Guess who made him do it .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Guess who made him do it .... I saw what it said in the beginning paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Terrific job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason. The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 remember the good ol' days ? http://web.archive.org/web/19961221013047/www.weather.com/twc/our_people/ocm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 remember the good ol' days ? http://web.archive.org/web/19961221013047/www.weather.com/twc/our_people/ocm/ If I'm correct... only Mike Siedel is still there from that group? A pretty good lineup at one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If I'm correct... only Mike Siedel is still there from that group? A pretty good lineup at one time. They brought back Dave Schwartz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Excellent work as usual and hope it verifies. I just have one question regarding the QBO chart DT detailed regarding rising -QBO into December. I'm not so sure those years featured SON averages below -20 heading into December? I could be wrong. I did find four years that did match an average -20 or lower with a December value around -10. Below is a list of SON falls with QBO lower than -20 that rose in December with QBO of around -10. At least for NYC, these years featured slightly AN snowfall but we're pretty warm except 2003-2004.Year _QBO _Oct SCE _DJF Temp____Snowfall __Dec QBO 1984: -20.07 _9.47 __+1.2 Nina _____24.1" _____-8.16 1996: -22.50 _10.03 _+2.6 Neutral - __10.0" _____-9.86 2003: -20.24 _10.43 _-2.8 Neutral + __42.6" _____-11.38 2012: -23.35 _11.36 _+1.6 Neutral - __26.1" _____-10.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I truly believe that December will be the month that we see a big time storm. Whether its rain/snow. I believe we will see a moisture loaded storm. December is the month that is up in air in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason. The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February. mqiphasespace.png There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 JB once again hitting home the 76-77 analog for atleast november. His premium page excerpt this morning showed a stark comparison in similarities. Whether or not this theme continues through the entire winter is yet to be seen but for right now the coldest winter analogs look pretty good. IMO most important part for the winter to even resemble 76-77 is IF this pattern can lock in for its entirety. Looks great into december but we have to look at relaxation and then how the pattern reloads as we head deeper into december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 remember the good ol' days ? http://web.archive.org/web/19961221013047/www.weather.com/twc/our_people/ocm/ Marc Mancuso was awesome and Jeff Morrow was great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nothing beat a Kocin appearance , it meant game on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nothing beat a Kocin appearance , it meant game on . Saddly his on air performances that stand out the most in my memory are the ones that preceded and occured during the March 2001 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nothing beat a Kocin appearance , it meant game on . True that paul, everytime you saw him come on you knew we were in for some type of snowstorm. Sadly like yanks said 2001 he caught some flak but so did most people as that storm was further north than forecast. Even today you'll be hard pressed to find someone who is as accurate with east coast cyclogenesis as him, the father of NESIS, Paul Kocin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share. 1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips. 2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed. 3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I like the 1976-77 analog but that year started setting all time monthly record lows the end of August and the cold continued on and off (mostly on) into February...no year is exactly a like...1976-77 enso might be close but real time temperatures aren't yet...maybe January will see record cold like 2004...I'd look at 2003-04 as a better analog if you're looking for cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips. 2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed. 3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months. Thank you, it makes sense given the easterly shift started around June, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Saddly his on air performances that stand out the most in my memory are the ones that preceded and occured during the March 2001 debacle. He held on to the bitter end, but by the morning of 3/6 you could tell it was over NYC S and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 LOL-rare for him to address his detractors (DT) like that. Great post though. Do you have a link for that post by JB addressing DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 He held on to the bitter end, but by the morning of 3/6 you could tell it was over NYC S and W I knew it was over the night before when the 12"+ graphic got pushed up into Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Do you have a link for that post by JB addressing DT? Yesterday on his pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If you sign up for this, your observations MIGHT just help Lonnie Quinn! http://newyork.cbslocal.com/weatherwatchers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I knew it was over the night before when the 12"+ graphic got pushed up into Orange County. and TWC slowly moving it north and east. Looking back, it's amazing that climo was never factored in (That these storms always tend to develop a bit later and further north and east that modeled-especially at that time in history. Look no further than 12/30/00 which screwed Balt and DC at the 11th hour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 and TWC slowly moving it north and east. Looking back, it's amazing that climo was never factored in (That these storms always tend to develop a bit later and further north and east that modeled-especially at that time in history. Look no further than 12/30/00 which screwed Balt and DC at the 11th hour)I was in Baltimore for 12/30/00 and we had less then an inch and it was torture. I went home to li a few days later and was a whole other world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 http://beforeitsnews.com/weather/2014/11/we-are-in-the-bullseye-expert-warns-by-midweek-all-hells-going-to-break-loose-2443800.html "Michio Kaku joins CBS This Morning to warn 250 million Americans that “we are in the bullseye” and by midweek, “all hell’s going to break loose” as America prepares to be pummeled by something sounding almost Biblical, ‘BomboGenesis’. Kaku warns that air, train and vehicle traffic could be paralyzed next week, and schedules disrupted" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Bernie is excited about next week : http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-brutal-cold-snowstorm-threat-next-week/2430839568001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Bernie is excited about next week : http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-brutal-cold-snowstorm-threat-next-week/2430839568001 ...lee goldberg isn't...kinda poo-pood the cold coming for next week..calling for a -10 departure for highs during late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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