MJO812 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Joe Cioffi on the weekend storm Last nights model runs were pretty interesting. The pics are the European, NAM and GFS model all side by side which show everything on or just offshore. European is cold at 850mb so if the precipitation is with any kind of intensity there could be wet snow in the mix along the coast. But intensity is key so we can have dynamic cooling. Most likely a cheap thrill but nonetheless a thrill. he very rarely includes a link in any of his 20,919 posts so far - just have to trust his third hand information Here is Larry's twitter link - still searching for the winter forecast which he released today https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove Also - something to think about -how much more readable would these threads be if some posters didn't have 10 times the amount of posts then most anyone else participationg here ??? He sent me his winter forecast through my email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You can sign up to receive Larry Cosgrove's newsletter at his Weather America Google Group at the following link. https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!forum/weatheramerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 JB is still on snow for the coast this weekend. Like paul said his weakness is to hold on to something for too long before letting it go and admitting defeat. For anthony's eternal optomistic faith who knows maybe he may be right and the models didnt have the right ide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 JB is still on snow for the coast this weekend. Like paul said his weakness is to hold on to something for too long before letting it go and admitting defeat. For anthony's eternal optomistic faith who knows maybe he may be right and the models didnt have the right ide ...and to hug a model that *may* share his idea, as bad as that model could be and to spin things into the ridiculous realm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 guess who likes the JMA today https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 guess who likes the JMA today https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi If its not the JMA, its the CMA. He's a stubborn Italian like me. Although, I know when to move on with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 If its not the JMA, its the CMA. He's a stubborn Italian like me. Although, I know when to move on with something. Hes trying to score the coup just like the JMA did back in 07' with the VDAY sleet storm. we all know he is stubborn but damn when he is right like with sandy you'll hear about it through thorough back patting. i mean the guy is flat out amazing at what he does but if he'd more sensible and know when to call it quits i can only imagine it helping his overall credibility in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Jma might be leading the way. Models are shifting west, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Jma might be leading the way. Models are shifting west, which models ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 All of them are shifting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 All of them are shifting west I believe our last noreaster behaved the same way where it shifted westward within 48 hours of game time. Wonder if this will be the trend for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 All of them are shifting westI think in general, the trend of the models has been to shift west within 72 hours or so, for years. It doesn't always happen, but we can never really discount the chance of it happening. Something else to factor in though is the number of storms that have shifted east within 72 hours. All in all, I'm not really sure even if more storms than average have been shifting west or east prior to the event lately. My guess is that since the storms are larger and more powerful (without a doubt) in recent years, they have greater implications for so many of us. Therefore, we tend to remember the westward or eastward shift of an event much more so than many many other systems which have done the same, but only put down 3-6" rather than the 12"+ which seemingly is becoming the "standard" for a very significant event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 0Z NAM is still a big miss http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014103100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Joe Cioffi on FB is excellent for anyone not already following. Glad to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Brett Anderson . Lack of Sustained Cold Into November October 24, 2014; 10:16 AM ETWinter is in no hurry to take hold Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF and CFSv2 extended long-range forecast output through much of November. A combination of indicators support more of a zonal (west to east) flow of air to dominate across southern Canada and the U.S. over the next few weeks, which means plenty of milder, Pacific air to spread across the country. While there will be some intrusions of cold air (one of those possibly coming into the East late next week) during the period, most of these cold shots will be quickly in and out due to a lack of upstream blocking. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/lack-of-sustained-cold-into-november/36246469 Anyone see Pasteloks Nov forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Brett Anderson . Lack of Sustained Cold Into November October 24, 2014; 10:16 AM ET Winter is in no hurry to take hold Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF and CFSv2 extended long-range forecast output through much of November. A combination of indicators support more of a zonal (west to east) flow of air to dominate across southern Canada and the U.S. over the next few weeks, which means plenty of milder, Pacific air to spread across the country. While there will be some intrusions of cold air (one of those possibly coming into the East late next week) during the period, most of these cold shots will be quickly in and out due to a lack of upstream blocking. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/lack-of-sustained-cold-into-november/36246469 Anyone see Pasteloks Nov forecast . From accuweather, this is just about par for the course with them. They are the jacksonville jaguars of the weather field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 From accuweather, this is just about par for the course with them. They are the jacksonville jaguars of the weather field NY Jets* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Brett Anderson . Lack of Sustained Cold Into NovemberOctober 24, 2014; 10:16 AM ETWinter is in no hurry to take hold Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF and CFSv2 extended long-range forecast output through much of November. A combination of indicators support more of a zonal (west to east) flow of air to dominate across southern Canada and the U.S. over the next few weeks, which means plenty of milder, Pacific air to spread across the country. While there will be some intrusions of cold air (one of those possibly coming into the East late next week) during the period, most of these cold shots will be quickly in and out due to a lack of upstream blocking. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/lack-of-sustained-cold-into-november/36246469 Anyone see Pasteloks Nov forecast . I often believe that Brett Andersons agw stance influences his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 NY Jets* Im sorry you're right the NY JETS are the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Im sorry you're right the NY JETS are the worst but i understand your point that accuweather is mediocre at best haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 DT showing off more of his non-professional immature behavior https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 DT showing off more of his non-professional immature behavior https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk He`s obsessed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I often believe that Brett Andersons agw stance influences his forecasts. that's accuweather in general too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 DT showing off more of his non-professional immature behavior https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Id take JB in my court over DT any day of the week. DT is immature and honestly he doesnt have to the LR forecasting prowess as JB. We all have documented JB's tendency to hang onto to an idea too long in the face of overwhelming model support that contradicts his forecasts. However, his forecasts are not that far fetched and him, d'elio and Ryan Maue do a great job together. I know paul here loves Ryan Maue's work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 DT showing off more of his non-professional immature behavior https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk read JBs latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Great work man , really well done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 read JBs latest Just read it and it was as mature of a response you can ask for. DT is a clown and if he calls himself a "professional" he did not act like it on his FB page. JB > DT any day of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Just read it and you did spectacular work on it my friend. Even better work in breaking it down so even the regular non-weather observer can understand it. That said, having you excited about this winter is very encouraging and look forward to your in-depth analysis of the weather this winter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Just read it and you did spectacular work on it my friend. Even better work in breaking it down so even the regular non-weather observer can understand it. That said, having you excited about this winter is very encouraging and look forward to your in-depth analysis of the weather this winter again I hae to second that opinion with passion, throughly enjoyed the read not simply because it is snowy but, above all, because it was highly instructive. well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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