PB GFI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 You're Pauly G the blog observer right? He's mentioned you a couple times in his videos and posts w/ shout-outs to Monmouth County. I like JB. He's entertaining, straight-forward, and has very good pattern recognition skills. His major flaw is a tendency to search for the extreme solution or promulgate that idea in a forecast. I actually think he's better at longer term than individual storms for the most part. Undoubtedly a cold/snowier/extreme bias, but if you adjust for that, there's definitely some solid science behind his reasoning. It's difficult to find a meteorologist who has mastered the art of objectivity, and I'd wager to say virtually everyone has a bias, to varying degrees, with regards to forecasting. Since meteorology is such an inexact science, it's quite easy to find data that supports a particular bias and thus forecast accordingly w/ said data as back-up. Yes . NO G . He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight . Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again . But he and D`aleo pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 you mean 14-15 right? 13-14 was nothing like 09-10 correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Yes . NO G . He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight . Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again . But he and D`aleo pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . Pulled the core of the cold back west? Does that mean more like last year's setup cold wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Pulled the core of the cold back west? Does that mean more like last year's setup cold wise? His Minus 2 are still east of the Rockies all the way into S New England ( You are under that ) His Minus 4 Are centered from the plains into the Ohio Valley . 133 perc of snow here 167 % Just west of the Appalachians . ALL IN ALL COLD WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW . There initial forecast centered Minus 4 into the SE States . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 His Minus 2 are still east of the Rockies all the way into S New England ( You are under that ) His Minus 4 Are centered from the plains into the Ohio Valley . 133 perc of snow here 167 % Just west of the Appalachians . ALL IN ALL COLD WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW . There initial forecast centered Minus 4 into the SE States . Interesting-b/c if it were a 9-10 repeat, the SE states would be cold with all the blocking (and New England warmer). NOAA has this in their outlook and I remember thinking looks similar to 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Interesting-b/c if it were a 9-10 repeat, the SE states would be cold with all the blocking (and New England warmer). NOAA has this in their outlook and I remember thinking looks similar to 9-10. JB orig thought 09 - 10 SE centered , but changed it about 2 weeks ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB orig thought 09 - 10 SE centered , but changed it about 2 weeks ago . JB is certainly beating the drum on this being a "big ticket winter" in his winter forecast today. The in-depth analysis was very helpful and also explained the JMA may be going against what should happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB is certainly beating the drum on this being a "big ticket winter" in his winter forecast today. The in-depth analysis was very helpful and also explained the JMA may be going against what should happen? that's not good-JMA I think nailed last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Yes . NO G . He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight . Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again . But he and D`aleo pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . Despite some of my posts, I dont dislike JB, I just have issues with him (as some have said) with him either grasping the extreme idea and sticking with it or finding some obscure model (CMA, etc) to validate what he is thinking. He is indeed stubborn, but as a fellow Italian, I know where he is coming from.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Despite some of my posts, I dont dislike JB, I just have issues with him (as some have said) with him either grasping the extreme idea and sticking with it or finding some obscure model (CMA, etc) to validate what he is thinking. He is indeed stubborn, but as a fellow Italian, I know where he is coming from.... I could do without the AGW stuff. I think that has driven more than a few people from his pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 that's not good-JMA I think nailed last year Models arent great all the time. It may be still trying to recognize the pattern and adjust accordingly compared to other globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I could do without the AGW stuff. I think that has driven more than a few people from his pay site. Well, that too and I'm not liberal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Wow JB's saturday atmospheric avenger makes it difficult for you to NOT get excited for this winter. Many great points made regarding whats going to be happening the next coming month to set us up for this winter. I know some are wary of JB but hes been doing a pretty good job forecasting this pattern and showing the models adjusting to what he is saying. Food for thought for sure folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 JB thinks the winter will be colder and snowier then he originally thought http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 JB thinks the winter will be colder and snowier then he originally thought http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014 Hes certainly got plenty of stuff to back that up already. Looking good thus far, he did an astounding job describing the block up top locking the cold air into the central/eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Wow JB's saturday atmospheric avenger makes it difficult for you to NOT get excited for this winter. Many great points made regarding whats going to be happening the next coming month to set us up for this winter. I know some are wary of JB but hes been doing a pretty good job forecasting this pattern and showing the models adjusting to what he is saying. Food for thought for sure folks Not to pile on the guy, but i have been following this stuff since maybe 2002, and I am pretty sure he has forecast one warm winter for the east in that time. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 JB thinks the winter will be colder and snowier then he originally thought http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014 Didn't he already think it was going to be a very cold and stormy winter? How much worse could it actually be and also way to up the hype ante JB. All of the METs seem to be really confident in a cold, snowy winter but just imagine the repercussions if things turn out the opposite if anything goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I guess very soon the ground is going to be the same color of new Fruit of the Loom "Tidy Whities" out of the package. By the end of the winter it starts looking like "used" tidy whities. Let's get the lingering leaves and stubborn impatiens shriveled up by 11/1/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I guess very soon the ground is going to be the same color of new Fruit of the Loom "Tidy Whities" out of the package. By the end of the winter it starts looking like "used" tidy whities. Let's get the lingering leaves and stubborn impatiens shriveled up by 11/1/2014. Here he is! JB's prodigal son has cometh to deliver hype! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Thought it was "'tightie whities'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The WeatherBell 14-15 prediction for posterity reasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Remember folks this is the first weekend of November. That being said this is an impressive shot of cold air. European would imply a pretty good snowstorm for interior central and northern New England with snow showers south and to NYC and Long Island. However being that the gfs has been a been of a trendsetter lately, Joe thinks this may shift south in subsequent runs. Todays midday run should be FASCINATING! (note..joe uses the word 'fascinating" as code). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Euro is trending in the direction of the GFS so for snow lovers you may view this as encouraging. Surface low on the euro is pretty far out but remember the gfs has development under the upper low that forms to the west. So there in likes the key question and that is..is the gfs correct in deeping a low fairly close to the upper low that is forming to the southwest of NYC. Big Big question. Still the Euro imlplies some snow on the back side. And the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JB says rain to snow for the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well of course it depends what JB is talking about and which major city. I would not get too excited yet for NYC. We need more than another month to wait in my opinion for more than a non- accumulating wet snow flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Not to pile on the guy, but i have been following this stuff since maybe 2002, and I am pretty sure he has forecast one warm winter for the east in that time. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong about that. Correct...he's gone warm once since 2000. And busted horribly in 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 when we saw historic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well of course it depends what JB is talking about and which major city. I would not get too excited yet for NYC. We need more than another month to wait in my opinion for more than a non- accumulatin accumulating wet snow flake. Because of climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well in general, it's incredibly difficult and rare to get accumulating snow late October/very early November. As we've found though, it is not impossible. In most cases, situations like this come close sometimes but don't pan out. Just like severe thunderstorm situations. I would never discount the possibility after experiencing what we have the past several years, but it's always good to remember that it is extremely rare. If we get nothing, we didn't get robbed. If we get something, we will have gotten very lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well of course it depends what JB is talking about and which major city. I would not get too excited yet for NYC. We need more than another month to wait in my opinion for more than a non- accumulating wet snow flake. DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 QUICKY COMMENT ON GFS October 28 12:01 PM Too Weak, too far south, expect sub 540 one contour upper low to track through Ohio , then south of Mason Dixon line, then intensify as low pressure on Va capes feedback. Carry on, and fear not From everyone`s favorite punching bag ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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