cut Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 JB thinks this hurricane season will be active for the east coast. Hmmmm! Survey says!!!! Ehhhhhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hmmmm! Survey says!!!! Ehhhhhhhhh. to be fair, most busted horribly. I didnt see a forecast anywhere that showed an almost historical non season esp with the warm water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Stunner Lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 John Bolaris, a well respected Philly met going for cold and snow - http://www.philly.com/philly/news/John_Bolaris_winter_weather_outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 John Bolaris, a well respected Philly met going for cold and snow - http://www.philly.com/philly/news/John_Bolaris_winter_weather_outlook.html His key assumptions: - Weak to moderate El Niño conditions will develop - AO- winter - PNA+ winter Just looking at seasonal snowfall (his estimate is 30"-40"), it might make sense given his above assumptions. Since 1950-51, 35.3% of winters with a winter (DJF) AO average of -1 or below had 30" or more snow in Philly. The probability was even higher for the subset that saw El Niño conditions. But what if he's wrong about the AO? It should be noted that both the SAI and OPI argue for a positive AO winter. 4.4% of winters (courtesy of the February 1983 blizzard) with an AO average > 0 had 30" or more snowfall and none had 30" or more snowfall during a winter average AO of +0.25 or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 His key assumptions: - Weak to moderate El Niño conditions will develop - AO- winter - PNA+ winter Just looking at seasonal snowfall (his estimate is 30"-40"), it might make sense given his above assumptions. Since 1950-51, 35.3% of winters with a winter (DJF) AO average of -1 or below had 30" or more snow in Philly. The probability was even higher for the subset that saw El Niño conditions. But what if he's wrong about the AO? It should be noted that both the SAI and OPI argue for a positive AO winter. 4.4% of winters (courtesy of the February 1983 blizzard) with an AO average > 0 had 30" or more snowfall and none had 30" or more snowfall during a winter average AO of +0.25 or above. Good points. If the AO is positive, his forecast won't verify. Big wildcard as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Euro is showing blocking developing at the very end of the month into December - all 3 major indicies forecasts are also going in the right direction for cold and snow to begin December - Accuweather's winter outlook has a chance of busting early as they predicted a mild December........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 DT http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 DT http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/ also the Euro is showing the MJO going into phase 8 by December which is a very cold signal here he even mentions this place - have to agree with his comment about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT issued his winter forecast today. He says that December might end up being the warmest month of the winter. He thinks this could be a severe winter for the east with really cold temps and a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 JB discusses his winter forecast in his saturday the 16th summary http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-16-2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Predicting how much snow is going to fall in a winter around here is extremely difficult because even in years when the pattern is lousy, it can set itself up right for just a few days and suddenly everyone gets a 20 inch storm...which is at least 50% of the average for the whole winter for most in this forum (from say south of a line from Danbury to Newton, NJ). 1982-93 and 2005-06 immediately come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 most of the lousy winters we had saw great storm tracks either to early in the season or in early Spring...1996-97 was a lousy winter for NYC...But in early December 1996 there were two consecutive storms that had mostly rain but heavy snow near Boston...April 1st fooled me when my basement got flooded while Boston got clobbered with snow...If that exact pattern came in January/February we could have gotton a lot of snow...except for recent years December's biggest storms were mostly rain in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT issued his winter forecast today. He says that December might end up being the warmest month of the winter. He thinks this could be a severe winter for the east with really cold temps and a lot of snow. If that part ends up being correct, then I can't see how the rest of the winter would be conducive for meaningful snow and cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If that part ends up being correct, then I can't see how the rest of the winter would be conducive for meaningful snow and cold... January and February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If that part ends up being correct, then I can't see how the rest of the winter would be conducive for meaningful snow and cold... January and February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 January and February ? The first test of this new pattern that we are anticipating next week is if the progged coastal storm that has been showing up on the GFS the last few runs actually develops and gives us the amount of precip advertised right now. The trend on the GFS the last couple months has been for the GFS showing a large precip event in the longer range then as the event approaches it cuts back the amounts. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 DT's take on next week's storm and why the GFS is useless crap https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/403574063013982208/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Philly centric, but a good read by Hurrican Schwartz http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Philly centric, but a good read by Hurrican Schwartz http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html Decemeber predictions for warmth or slightly above is likely to bust badly. Even accuweather is admitting their warm December outlook is going to bust badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Steve D's snowmap for Friday night into Saturday. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/12/04/preliminary-snow-map-for-december-7-2013/ Trace to an inch for the coast and more to the north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Steve D is calling for snow to sleet to rain for NYC with an inch of snow for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Steve D is callinf for snow to sleet to rain for NYC with an inch of snow for Sunday. sounds about right. It'll be washed away at the end for sure with temps into the mid 40's Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro is showing blocking developing at the very end of the month into December - all 3 major indicies forecasts are also going in the right direction for cold and snow to begin December - Accuweather's winter outlook has a chance of busting early as they predicted a mild December........ Looks like I was correct about Accuweather's mild slow start December forecast busting .............and we are doing this with just a negative EPO - WPO in our favor the other 3 are not in the favorable positions - so I was wrong about that but not the cold snowy December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bill Evans on WABC this morning went with 3"-6" snow almost areawide. 1-3" well N&W. I think that's robust, this early. http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/video?id=9353850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bill Evans on WABC this morning went with 3"-6" snow almost areawide. 1-3" well N&W. I think that's robust, this early. http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/video?id=9353850 after what happened yesterday with the snow totals forecasts busting way too low to the south of us - I think we have to leave all possibilities on the table it will probably end up being another NOW forecasting scenario with a couple of surprises thrown in for good or bad measure .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here is a good discussion just released about the 12Z NAM from Met Paul Dorian http://spam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Henry's map shows just a wintry mix to a coating of snow for NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-followed-by-a-clipper-followed-by-warmth/20916380 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Henry's map shows just a wintry mix to a coating of snow for NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-followed-by-a-clipper-followed-by-warmth/20916380 woohoo, blizzard on the way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 woohoo, blizzard on the way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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