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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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I also have know for many years. He trolls people who are big weenies(he did it to me alot in the past and still does it lol ).When it comes to weather,he knows his stuff. I see the trolling is getting to people on here. Just ignore him like I do. It is funny how different people can be online and in public. Forky is a complete different person in public. He's really nice and fun to be around.

 

I have no desire to ignore him, as I consider him a friend. Besides, I know exactly where he is coming from with what he says, and if you read between the lines rather than take his words at exact face value, you will realize what he is really saying to all of you. 

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I know Forky for many years and I can confirm he knows he stuff and is a talent. He's also been around between here and Eastern way longer than most of you. Perhaps some of you should ask yourself the question why does he "troll"...or maybe a better word is criticize? Maybe he is trying to make a point that perhaps it is some of you who need to step up your game on here and cut the weenie posts, model spam, etc. Rather than engaging a contrarian or realist on here, some of you chose to chase anyone that doesn't conform to the acceptable view here. Perhaps its this same reason that few to no mets and fewer people in general are posting on here.

Most of that I agree with but why come into the vendor thread and call out a fellow degreed meteorologist who took the time to post a detailed winter forecast?

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Also the winter time is basically the METS football season or Super Bowl so to speak so they often will try to add something extra or some hype to their winter forecasts even if the winter is expected to be warm with little snowfall.

JB does this too much with a major east coast bias to boot so he loses credibility constantly.

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Most of that I agree with but why come into the vendor thread and call out a fellow degreed meteorologist who took the time to post a detailed winter forecast?

 

IMHO, if you really look at it, his criticism was less directed at the met and more at some posters. I think we all appreciate the research and work of any professional, whether we agree with it or not. But, people will embrace a headline they love and attack one they hate without delving into the details and see whether it is a sound argument or not. That's what I think Forky meant, that there are "suckers" on here who would embrace the headline without reading or analyzing beyond that.   It's the same idea as someone posting a end of run model map because it shows something without looking into the whys and how, 

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IMHO, if you really look at it, his criticism was less directed at the met and more at some posters. I think we all appreciate the research and work of any professional, whether we agree with it or not. But, people will embrace a headline they love and attack one they hate without delving into the details and see whether it is a sound argument or not. That's what I think Forky meant, that there are "suckers" on here who would embrace the headline without reading or analyzing beyond that.   It's the same idea as someone posting a end of run model map because it shows something without looking into the whys and how, 

agreed the weenie goggles will be in high demand in another month or so. you can see the circle jerk from here for a 240+HR GFS/EURO and hear a pin drop in here when it shows nothing or rain. it is very predictable in here. Forky does stir the pot but some of you should really put the man pants on, this is the internet and he really isn't insulting people. during all severe events he contributes great insight IMO

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agreed the weenie goggles will be in high demand in another month or so. you can see the circle jerk from here for a 240+HR GFS/EURO and hear a pin drop in here when it shows nothing or rain. it is very predictable in here. Forky does stir the pot but some of you should really put the man pants on, this is the internet and he really isn't insulting people. during all severe events he contributes great insight IMO

+1 Part of me wants to be a mod again, like I was for a time at Eastern, but I dont think I would win many weenie friends here. 

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I have no desire to ignore him, as I consider him a friend. Besides, I know exactly where he is coming from with what he says, and if you read between the lines rather than take his words at exact face value, you will realize what he is really saying to all of you.

The blatant racism, sexism and disrespect do not make up for the semi accurate forecast he post
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can anyone open this presentation  by Tolleris he links too after you download it ??? He expects everyone to have up to date software on their computer

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

Yeah it is powerpoint, worked for me on his site.

 

These are direct links:

 

Long Version  http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/PRELIM-long-Winter-preview-2014-2015.pptx

 

Short Version  http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/PRELIM-long-Winter-preview-2014-2015SHORT.pptx

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I know Forky for many years and I can confirm he knows he stuff and is a talent. He's also been around between here and Eastern way longer than most of you. Perhaps some of you should ask yourself the question why does he "troll"...or maybe a better word is criticize? Maybe he is trying to make a point that perhaps it is some of you who need to step up your game on here and cut the weenie posts, model spam, etc. Rather than engaging a contrarian or realist on here, some of you chose to chase anyone that doesn't conform to the acceptable view here. Perhaps its this same reason that few to no mets and fewer people in general are posting on here.

Meh. There is no excuse for some of his behavior. Deflecting to blaming other people for his actions is pretty lame.

Yeah we have weenies in here, but everyone has a bias. As he clearly likes heat.

No excuse for the insults and trolling.

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JB on his atmospheric avenger yesterday on weather bell seemed pretty optimistic regarding this winter. I know none of you are very fond of JB but nonetheless great points were hit home and should be paid attention to as well :popcorn:

Despite the hype, JB is awesome with cold patterns.  It's the warm and snowless ones that he doesn't see coming like a freight train...

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Based on all these forecasts minus NOAAs repetitive warm signal year after year things are looking really good. Obviously a lot can still go wrong and I can't say I'm not worried when there's a cold snowy consensus.

It reminds me of last years hurricane season where all forecasts failed immensely despite a consensus of an active season.

Even last winter the majority ruled warm and less snow and it turned out the exact opposite so that's my biggest fear is a major shift where the forecasts change suddenly.

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Well when you always predict cold and snowy...

That's true.  He only went warm once and he verified outside of a cold December period.   But he usually holds onto the cold/snowy stuff too long in years like 01-02, 05-06, 11-12.   All those years he said it was coming--never did.

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JB on his atmospheric avenger yesterday on weather bell seemed pretty optimistic regarding this winter. I know none of you are very fond of JB but nonetheless great points were hit home and should be paid attention to as well :popcorn:

JB  said 13- 14 looked like 09 - 10 back in April to him  .   THE 1ST ONE .

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JB said 13- 14 looked like 09 - 10 back in April to him . THE 1ST ONE .

Your a JB fan and i appreciate his work as well. His past few atmospheric avengers have told me that is really does put alot of thought and scientific fact into his forecast. Shame when he fails people burn him at the stake knowing this field NEVER will be a guarantee.

That said this winter thus far looks encouraging but would like to see the trends in AK start going our way now

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Your a JB fan and i appreciate his work as well. His past few atmospheric avengers have told me that is really does put alot of thought and scientific fact into his forecast. Shame when he fails people burn him at the stake knowing this field NEVER will be a guarantee.

That said this winter thus far looks encouraging but would like to see the trends in AK start going our way now

We are good friends , As a person you will be hard pressed to find one better ..  I tend to stay clear of his political views as that`s what gets him in trouble . Truth be told , the guy is really smart and regardless of what most say they read him even if it`s to just rip him but many tune into to see what he`s looking at.  

 

Too often he locks onto an idea and refuses to let it go  even in the face of underwhelming model support . That has gotten him killed on many a weather board . 

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We are good friends , As a person you will be hard pressed to find one better ..  I tend to stay clear of his political views as that`s what gets him in trouble . Truth be told , the guy is really smart and regardless of what most say they read him even if it`s to just rip him but many tune into to see what he`s looking at.  

 

Too often he locks onto an idea and refuses to let it go  even in the face of underwhelming model support . That has gotten him killed on many a weather board . 

I started following him back in 2000 and actually remember him from Weather World at PSU back in the mid 90s. I remember him really holding on to the idea that 2001-02 would flip to cold and snowy and it didn't, which is fine, it happens. He at least explained why and how he got burned. There were many times however where he was all over a potential snowstorm way before the other outlets got on board and usually gave good explanations why. I just feel like in the past few years he's gone so far overboard on the climate change thing that it has made it difficult to follow and listen to him anymore 

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We are good friends , As a person you will be hard pressed to find one better .. I tend to stay clear of his political views as that`s what gets him in trouble . Truth be told , the guy is really smart and regardless of what most say they read him even if it`s to just rip him but many tune into to see what he`s looking at.

Too often he locks onto an idea and refuses to let it go even in the face of underwhelming model support . That has gotten him killed on many a weather board .

Wonder how hard it would be actually meet him in person. I know like you said he has a wealth of knowledge regarding meteorology and cant imagine not learning anything non-constructive from him. Yea hes human and has his flaws but he does make a very concerted effort to make a forecast/prediction whether it be wrong or not
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We are good friends , As a person you will be hard pressed to find one better ..  I tend to stay clear of his political views as that`s what gets him in trouble . Truth be told , the guy is really smart and regardless of what most say they read him even if it`s to just rip him but many tune into to see what he`s looking at.  

 

Too often he locks onto an idea and refuses to let it go  even in the face of underwhelming model support . That has gotten him killed on many a weather board . 

 

 

You're Pauly G the blog observer right? He's mentioned you a couple times in his videos and posts w/ shout-outs to Monmouth County.

 

I like JB. He's entertaining, straight-forward, and has very good pattern recognition skills. His major flaw is a tendency to search for the extreme solution or promulgate that idea in a forecast. I actually think he's better at longer term than individual storms for the most part. Undoubtedly a cold/snowier/extreme bias, but if you adjust for that, there's definitely some solid science behind his reasoning. It's difficult to find a meteorologist who has mastered the art of objectivity, and I'd wager to say virtually everyone has a bias, to varying degrees, with regards to forecasting. Since meteorology is such an inexact science, it's quite easy to find data that supports a particular bias and thus forecast accordingly w/ said data as back-up.

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We are good friends , As a person you will be hard pressed to find one better ..  I tend to stay clear of his political views as that`s what gets him in trouble . Truth be told , the guy is really smart and regardless of what most say they read him even if it`s to just rip him but many tune into to see what he`s looking at.  

 

Too often he locks onto an idea and refuses to let it go  even in the face of underwhelming model support . That has gotten him killed on many a weather board .

You're Pauly G the blog observer right? He's mentioned you a couple times in his videos and posts w/ shout-outs to Monmouth County.

 

I like JB. He's entertaining, straight-forward, and has very good pattern recognition skills. His major flaw is a tendency to search for the extreme solution or promulgate that idea in a forecast. I actually think he's better at longer term than individual storms for the most part. Undoubtedly a cold/snowier/extreme bias, but if you adjust for that, there's definitely some solid science behind his reasoning. It's difficult to find a meteorologist who has mastered the art of objectivity, and I'd wager to say virtually everyone has a bias, to varying degrees, with regards to forecasting. Since meteorology is such an inexact science, it's quite easy to find data that supports a particular bias and thus forecast accordingly w/ said data as back-up.

In the late 90's I would read and enjoy his (then free) summaries on AccuWeather. He even praised and directed us towards, what he considered a talented Meteorologist known on the boards as DT.

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In the late 90's I would read and enjoy his (then free) summaries on AccuWeather. He even praised and directed us towards, what he considered a talented Meteorologist known on the boards as DT.

Then DT starting attacking him on a daily basis, causing JB to call him the Virginia Vigilante...LOL

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