NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno 33m Video coming. A very, very tough snow forecast pic.twitter.com/DAYoT3SXi0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is calling for a huge snowstorm for the area. got a link ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 got a link ? Twitter yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JB 6+ from Philly to Boston with blizzard conditions on LI and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JB add this from JB Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h No confluence in front of storm should mean correction west. Models wont be locked in till all the players in the middle of field Mon-Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This from Paul Dorian at SI Weather : he is also going with 3 -6 in NYC possibly more http://spam.com/category/nyc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is calling for a huge snowstorm for the area. Bust this is steven D or STD as I call him. STD has been calling for no storm for days which is his opinion and I respect that. What I do not respect is when he lies! NY NJ PA Weather Consulting 3 mins · Good Morning everyone! Much colder conditions are in place today and even colder weather is on the way for tomorrow! Meteorologist Erin Budden will have the updates this morning. Meteorologist Steven DiMartino will have the Daily Video Discussion and Premium Discussion out this afternoon after the 12Z models to handle the potential storm. Note, all the 00Z models have shifted significantly to the east. Updates on the way!! Good Call by Steve add this from JB Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h No confluence in front of storm should mean correction west. Models wont be locked in till all the players in the middle of field Mon-Tue I don't normally pay attention to JB but... Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 53s 108 hour ecmwf ensembles have strong neg tilt trough west of 85 west! Surface jump out to sea weird given wavelength, SST! Horrific, and I mean horrific month for JB. First he called for the cold pattern to flip around 3/5 and then missed every since storm this month...that's tough to do. He did have a great winter with the pattern, but this will leave a bad taste in his mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JB , written at 314 ( I`m not kidding ) I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. He`s gona need that devine intervention . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JB , written at 314 ( I`m not kidding ) I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. He`s gona need that devine intervention . He's officially gone off the deep end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 He's officially gone off the deep end I love the guy , He does have a pair . I will give him that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 JB , written at 314 ( I`m not kidding ) I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. He`s gona need that devine intervention . he always holds to to the end,but this one is done. No way Boston even sees 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 he always holds to to the end,but this one is done. No way Boston even sees 3 Seen him do that before. March 2007 when every met in the world said NYC wouldn't see much due to a nose of warm air, he was still saying no NYC will get a big snow. We got sleet due to a nose of warm air....5 inches of sleet. I think Yanksfan or Allsnow do a much better job and they don't get paid for it. A number of people here are better than JB; Earthlight to name one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm waiting for "I got the upper air pattern right" or there's a storm, (it's not not hitting anyone except the fish)I was just 300 miles off,not bad from 7 days post from JB today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just a quick question, can you be called a meteorologist at TV or radio station if you have the AMS seal of approval? Or is it easier than that or harder? The only actual CBM's I know of are Rich Hoffman and Vanessa Murdock. IMO, they shouldn't be called meteorologists without a degree. Weather forecaster is a fair term. Having said that, the bigger problem this winter seems to have been the use of social media to disseminate some excessive to extreme snowfall amounts far before the science even permits estimates of accumulations with reasonable confidence. The great "Facebook blizzard" of February that never unfolded is one example. A possible example in waiting is the forecast that was posted in one of the subforums here showing 8"-12" for NYC and 12"-24" for Long Island for the upcoming storm. The forecast was posted on March 21. Already, one has seen Craig Allen, Glenn Schwartz, and the National Weather Service try to push back against this possible emergent trend. They understand that if such forecasts get pushed out before the public, the public's perceptions of weather forecasting will worsen even as the professionals are far better than what the new perceptions might imply. Unfortunately, without the development of a transparent verification mechanism that could flag sources of consistently bad forecasts, Allen et al will likely continue to have their hands full, both forecasting the weather, which can already be quite challenging at times, and trying to assure that their forecasts aren't lost in the Social Media noise where extreme forecasts grab the most attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 JB , written at 314 ( I`m not kidding ) I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. He`s gona need that devine intervention . It's more likely we only see 9 flakes here. I remember the 2002-03 winter when he was great, but most winters after he's been completely out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's more likely we only see 9 flakes here. I remember the 2002-03 winter when he was great, but most winters after he's been completely out of it. JB is generally good in cold winters. He's bad in warm ones (which he never seems to see coming) such as 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 JB is generally good in cold winters. He's bad in warm ones (which he never seems to see coming) such as 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 Funny how it works that way when you call for cold and snowy every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Funny how it works that way when you call for cold and snowy every winter LOL-true...what made him even worse in those warm ones was his refusal to get go when it was obvious it wasn't coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Dt last call map I need 1" to hit 70 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Dt last call map I need 1" to hit 70 imby Amazing consistency with a difference of only 1" here in freehold over the course of this long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 JB this morning said watch out for a snowstorm from Philly to Boston for the 1st week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Steve D regarding the Spring and Summer. One aspect that I think will be interesting to watch this year is the potential for severe thunderstorms this Spring and Summer. I don’t think this is going to be a year of major and numerous severe thunderstorm outbreaks. We’ll see some across the country, naturally, but I don’t think we’ll see as many as the past two years. This year is shaping up based on the data from the Stratosphere to the developments in the Pacific as more of a year of flooding and heavy rainfall events. Note for example that the atmosphere over North America as a whole features a more stable environment with relatively warm air at the top of the troposphere which is far different from what was observed the past two Springs and Summers. Also note that with an El Nino forming as I type, there is more support for robust low pressure systems loaded with moisture tracking across the country and up the coast. With a more stable atmospheric environment, typically the combination of these two factors lead to stratus based precipitation rather than convective precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Steve D regarding the Spring and Summer. It'll be difficult to get less than the past couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 JB this morning said watch out for a snowstorm from Philly to Boston for the 1st week of April. I'm still digging out from his last forecast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Steve D regarding the Spring and Summer. Agreed, I think we're going to be entering a period of very active weather. Not exactly great beach weather on the horizon. I'm much more interested in the SST in the northern gulf. The last two summers have featured below average temperatures in the northern gulf of Mexico and overall a more hostile environment for tropical cyclone formation. We usually get our heaviest synoptic rainfall in the summer from recurving tropical remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 JB this morning said watch out for a snowstorm from Philly to Boston for the 1st week of April. Maybe he can go 1 for 5 this month. Just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 DT busted horribly on that map outside of S NJ. New England got nothing and the Cape 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 JB this morning said watch out for a snowstorm from Philly to Boston for the 1st week of April.I wouldn't write this off. The curse of march will be over and what an amazing curse it has been. In a winter were everything went right (mid winter) to having everything go wrong it's bound to snap back. Just a hunch with a little bit of it snows where it wants to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 JB this morning said watch out for a snowstorm from Philly to Boston for the 1st week of April. I'm less enthusiastic about such an outcome. While there is a lot of room for different outcomes, I suspect that the weakening superstorm now passing across western Newfoundland, marked the beginning of a true transition in the sensible weather toward spring. It was a product of a pattern than saw a lot of abnormally cold air locked in across North America, persistent flow of cold air into North America (while Europe was very warm), shortening wave lengths, and increasing solar insolation. At the same time, its expansive circulation will almost certainly have some influence in shaping the pattern going forward. The transition could last 2-4 weeks. Considering that there is still colder than normal air across Canada and expansive snow cover there, the process will take some time before it is completed. The coming 2-4 weeks will probably be wetter than normal with multiple opportunities for storminess. However, with the proverbial back of the anomalous cold having been broken by the superstorm, the kind of cold anomalies we just experienced--some of the coldest temperatures this late in the season since 1982--probably won't recur. Unlike has been the case in January through late March, where any warmups proved short-lived before sharp shots of cold returned, I suspect we'll be dealing with more modest cold shots. April hasn't had a freezing temperature in NYC since 2007 and I believe it's about 50-50 probability that April 2014 won't have such a reading either despite all of the late-season cold we've been experiencing. If that's correct, prospects of a moderate or large snowstorm for the NYC metro area won't be very good. This doesn't mean that there can't be a little snow, but even that outcome is far from assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 In-depth and level-headed analysis is such a refreshing change of pace around here. Great post, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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