rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Craig also commented that one of his colleagues was forced to put out a number back on Thursday due to all the buzz on social media. I wasn't sure if he meant on 880 or TV. It does seem like this winter and the explosion of entities on Facebook have forever changed forecasting and how the public gets forecasts moving forward... Particular concerning big winter storms mt holly must be feeling the pressure to as they put out a snowfall map at least 3 days in advance. there first map had me at 8-10 and i couldnt believe they put one out so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Clearly i`m not arguing with you , I am just saying I love Craig Allen and Glen Schwartz they Great Mets , but when they miss EC snowstorms 3 days out because the GFS punts them out the to sea ( and the Euro sees it ) and 3 days later you dig out of 12 inches of flurries how does that help the public . Do we punish professionals when they get it wrong . You shouldn't be able to drive a car without a license or practice medicine without a degree . But circulating a " weather" forecast is no worse than point and click forecasts that have verification scores outside 3 days so small you need a microscope to find them . All I am saying is professionals and amateurs should not share the same sphere when depending on forecasting . Let em circulate it , maybe it gets more people interested in weather and it will drive more traffic to the professionals . God for bid these guys took that approach . It's a good discussion Paul and I like the way you discuss (and I wasn't arguing either, since I tend to side with you on this one!) I think, according to meteorological professionals, it somewhat 'denigrates' the science by letting anyone just circulate forecasts and scientific weather maps well before it's time to do so and without the ability to clearly articulate what's happening or without any potential ramifications, either legally or professionally. I think that's the issue that Mets are taking issue with. Again, I don't think you can stop it, but I do get the humbrage that the pros and others take. It's like someone getting a hold of a clinical study for an indication of a product that may or may not be approved for human use commercially by the FDA. It's public information. They can read it. And, regardless of scientific background, they can eschew what they wish to the world out there --- smart folks and idiots alike. This is the world we live in. The sad part is, sometimes the idiots have the loudest voice... And the biggest effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 good call Nope, he's going to bust too high--city gets .01 on the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 mt holly must be feeling the pressure to as they put out a snowfall map at least 3 days in advance. there first map had me at 8-10 and i couldnt believe they put one out so early Yeah I noticed upton doesn't usually put out a map until inside 48 hours but mt holly much sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 are u jb lol? Ha , I work in a competitive environment , I love when young inexperienced kids out of PHD programs try and compete in my sphere . They are usually so bad out of the box , it drives the pros to me . They make me look me good by default . So I say let the idiots speak . It may benefit the best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's a good discussion Paul and I like the way you discuss (and I wasn't arguing either, since I tend to side with you on this one!) I think, according to meteorological professionals, it somewhat 'denigrates' the science by letting anyone just circulate forecasts and scientific weather maps well before it's time to do so and without the ability to clearly articulate what's happening or without any potential ramifications, either legally or professionally. I think that's the issue that Mets are taking issue with. Again, I don't think you can stop it, but I do get the humbrage that the pros and others take. It's like someone getting a hold of a clinical study for an indication of a product that may or may not be approved for human use commercially by the FDA. It's public information. They can read it. And, regardless of scientific background, they can eschew what they wish to the world out there --- smart folks and idiots alike. This is the world we live in. The sad part is, sometimes the idiots have the loudest voice... And the biggest effects. Very fair points . Yes the idiots have the loudest voice , so I`m gona whisper from here on in brother . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Very fair points . Yes the idiots have the loudest voice , so I`m gona whisper from here on in brother . Cool man. I'm getting some much needed rest after tracking this garbage. Thanks for all the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 good call For the wrong reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just so it's clear, I do not support calls to restrict model availability. Indeed, even if NCEP restricted access to its models, international models are available. What I do believe would work would be the development of public verification scores, even if informally. For example, a website might collect and post the outlandish forecast maps being publicized by various "authorities" as Craig Allen termed them, and then the actual outcomes from the events. That would quickly help sort out good forecasters from bad ones. Then, the media could avoid disseminating information that is of uncertain or worse quality and a lot of the social media "problem" would be addressed. Not every rumor would be avoided, but the impact of bad information would be limited. Finally, such public verfication data might also trigger a change in behavior among others seeking to actively forecast, as some outlets likely want to have staying power. Such a change in behavior e.g., as simple as waiting an additional 24 hours to post ideas and/or waiting for additional model support, would produce improved scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just so it's clear, I do not support calls to restrict model availability. Indeed, even if NCEP restricted access to its models, international models are available. What I do believe would work would be the development of public verification scores, even if informally. For example, a website might collect and post the outlandish forecast maps being publicized by various "authorities" as Craig Allen termed them, and then the actual outcomes from the events. That would quickly help sort out good forecasters from bad ones. Then, the media could avoid disseminating information that is of uncertain or worse quality and a lot of the social media "problem" would be addressed. Not every rumor would be avoided, but the impact of bad information would be limited. Finally, such public verfication data might also trigger a change in behavior among others seeking to actively forecast, as some outlets likely want to have staying power. Such a change in behavior e.g., as simple as waiting an additional 24 hours to post ideas and/or waiting for additional model support, would produce improved scores. You're assuming that these various "authorities" would care about what some website has to say about their forecasts. I'm a firm believer that these bogus forecasts are generated in order to create hype and hysteria and increase traffic to their website. More website traffic means better advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You're assuming that these various "authorities" would care about what some website has to say about their forecasts. I'm a firm believer that these bogus forecasts are generated in order to create hype and hysteria and increase traffic to their website. More website traffic means better advertising. Almost certainly, some won't care. However, the media will have a better idea what sites are reliable and what sites aren't. That will make it more difficult for bad information to go viral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 JB is calling for a major winter storm next week after the brief warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry Cosgrove Forecast thought for the day: the March 7-9 storm may be stronger than many think, and the system March 13 - 15 bears watching for Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic, New England and the Maritime Provinces. As in "winter storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 From DT on Facebook : UPDATE ON MARCH 12-13-14The overnight in early morning weather models on this Wednesday continue to indicate that there' is the potential for significant winter storm for the East Coast or some portion of the East Coast March 12-13-14.. Of course a key word here is potential. The only thing we are really concerned about at this point given that it's 9 days out is the consistency of the models.Basically The longer that all 3 models show the system and the longer they stay consistent ... then the more likely it is to be a significant event.Given how late in the season is it seems more likely it this is going to be in Northern Middle Atlantic and southern women snowstorm.Even the different models here which show a more solid track still have the temperatures that 850 mb -- 1 mile above the ground-- too warm to sporting thing with rain over central and southern Virginia and all of North Carolina. That of courses could change but the odds strongly favor this being a northern middle Atlantic New York City and New England snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 JB is calling for a major winter storm next week after the brief warmup. JB calls for a storm every week Larry Cosgrove LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi May 23 Don't look now, but 380hr GFS has a major storm targeting the east coast. "Winter" storm. Put Summer on hold folks!!! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi May 23 @NHC_Atlantic I know it is coming from the tropical Atlantic. P-type still up in the air but this could be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Bernie Rayno likes the storm for the end of next week http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/looking-ahead-threat-for-stor/655578741001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 what's Janice Huff saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 what's Janice Huff saying? Her + Lonnie Quinn = Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Her + Lonnie Quinn = Lock it up! When Lonnie has his sleeves rolled up,that means severe weather is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 JB says if we get a full phase, the storm cuts. Ridge in the west is too far west for a coastal storm (assuming a full phase) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 US National Weather Service New York NY Our weather models are indicating the "potential" for unsettled weather next week. However, that is all we can say at this point. The state of the science does not allow us to specifically say what will exactly happen over 144 hours out. Big changes can even happen within 48 hours. You were able to witness this first hand with the system that missed us to the south on Monday, when only days before we were predicting several inches of snow. Weather is constantly changing and our best advice to you is to make sure you are getting your weather information from trusted sources such as the National Weather Service and/or our local media partners. In case you missed it the other day, here is a great video explaining why the forecast for the last system changed significantly, even if only a few days out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLKFIqoHah4&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Hey guys. I created a blog for the March 13th storm threat. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/viewdiscussion/37-update-12-15-pm-3-13-storm-threat?groupid=40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 bastardi's analogs for next winter: 1958, 2003, 2010. jebus. lol. i hope he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Bastardi likes the 17/18 storm alot and more to come after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Bastardi needs a new last name lol jk. In what world does someone just throw some of the snowiest analogs out there for next winter, which is 8/9 months away. An El Niño doesn't mean squat right now if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Horrendous bust shaping up for JB on this storm-had 3 inches to the I80 corridor and jackpot on the I90 corridor-modelling showing the 3 inch line about 50 miles north of I90 as of today with the continued north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Bastardi likes the 17/18 storm alot and more to come after that Has he ever met a storm he didn't like? Have you ever heard him say, Euro's got a monster for next week,but I don't buy it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Bastardi needs a new last name lol jk. In what world does someone just throw some of the snowiest analogs out there for next winter, which is 8/9 months away. An El Niño doesn't mean squat right now if it happens. If we have raging -pna still and a weak niño it could happen. Obviously a strong niño and all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 If we have raging -pna still and a weak niño it could happen. Obviously a strong niño and all bets are off. El Ninos correspond to +PNA. They typically happen during the +PDO phase though, as their most severe effects happen when the El Nino and PDO are in sync with each other. I'd much rather play our odds with a Nino than a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.