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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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You do realize its a 5 to 10 inch range?

The reason that's a poor job is because the models really advertise a tighter gradient. if the maxes are 4 at KNYC 6 in Monmouth county and 8 down near Philly the entire are shouldn't be lumped into one box

The better range in my opinion. Are 2 to 4 nyc. 4 to 6 in Monmouth. 6 to 8 Philly. Or I could just say 2 to 8 from Philly to NYC

Which is really what Steve is doing.

I like him , but its too high and a bit lazy IMO

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Steve D

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Screen-Shot-2014-03-02-at-8.19.12-AM.png

He's calling for 1-4 inches in Manhattan and 5-10 inches for the south shore of Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island lol

We'll think of it this way.....if the forecast is for 5-10" and they get 5, it will "verify". If they get 4, it will be called "almost nailing it".....1-4" is basically saying that anything at all will verify. So with those amounts, you really can't go wrong with the forecast. No matter what.....you verify

Sent from my iPhone

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Bill Evans just said big storm up to a foot or more, but not in the city on ABC news on radio ( not that I listen to that crappy station but someone had it on ) which is a laugh. I guess it is directed at financial people who live in Monmouth county who knows.

Yes , us evil financial people of Monmouth county. I like the sound of that.

I think Monmouth county tops out at 6 .

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Yes , us evil financial people of Monmouth county. I like the sound of that.

I think Monmouth county tops out at 6 .

Yes , us evil financial people of Monmouth county. I like the sound of that.

I think Monmouth county tops out at 6 .

Hahaha Yeah if we get 6 inches I'll take it and run. Obviously Southern Monmouth will do better than me though.

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steve d is a clown

he is clearly reading this forum because he is PISSED OFF on his twitter acct blaming people slamming his forcast on 'reader miscomprehension'. Lets see how we feels at this time tomorrow when NY at all points has struggled to get to -maybe- 2 inches

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Ha. Thanks. I think.

All in good fun. On a serious note, the reason Middletown was so impacted on 9/11 was so many victims worked in the city and the towers. So if it is going to be a big storm in Monmouth that is still IMO NYC  area; when I worked the boats in Atl Highlands I saw people commuting to the city by ferry; we fished the off the Rockaways for migrating fluke in the fall and near the Verrazano for stripers in the spring. Flounder were to be found off Staten Island in April. I miss those days. And it was only a short boat ride to the Coney Island flats too, as the flounder moved out in May.

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he is clearly reading this forum because he is PISSED OFF on his twitter acct blaming people slamming his forcast on 'reader miscomprehension'. Lets see how we feels at this time tomorrow when NY at all points has struggled to get to -maybe- 2 inches

 

I also posted on my page (private one not the public one on tristate), So now he back peddling. So he thinks 5 inches for NYC and 4 inches just north of that?   the guy is just awful and his strat warming ideas have failed him over & over again.

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All in good fun. On a serious note, the reason Middletown was so impacted on 9/11 was so many victims worked in the city and the towers. So if it is going to be a big storm in Monmouth that is still IMO NYC  area; when I worked the boats in Atl Highlands I saw people commuting to the city by ferry; we fished the off the Rockaways for migrating fluke in the fall and near the Verrazano for stripers in the spring. Flounder were to be found off Staten Island in April. I miss those days. And it was only a short boat ride to the Coney Island flats too, as the flounder moved out in May.[/

You are right about the impact. Lotta cantor guys lived down in Monmouth

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lol do you still think we get warning criteria snows?

 

 

hell if i know. unfortunately the trends suck... but i would think you have a decent shot at getting close.   

 

follow the HRRR all day as it updates hourly. it goes out 15 hours.  looks like there's some hope there... HRRR is a power hitter. hits a lot of home runs, but strikes out a lot too. 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=02+Mar+2014+-+16Z

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and yes that is me who Steven D or as I call him STD is referring to as "adam" from tristate. :)

Isn't it cool that you (who is not a pro met) copies and pastes other peoples forecasts on a silly facebook page with terrible writing grammar and then act like it's yours but then when it's wrong try to distract but attacking an actual Met? You certainly have issues and kinda creepy too.

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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.
3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Craig Allen now THERE is a Met/ Forcaster and you Tristate guy,whatever your name is Adam or whatever, are utterly and completly out of line about your tonality about Steve D who has more preofessionalism in his pinky than you do. Its ok to bust and be big enough to admit it- what you are doing is infantile. NUF SAID! (PfDude these words are meant for Tristate guy up above in the page I m merely quoting your Craig Allen post)

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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I completely agree with Craig Allen.

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