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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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yea their forecasting is VERY misleading to say the least and afraid they may be dropping the ball big time for ALOT of people tomorrow. and lower the totals according to new guidance? all guidance today trended towards more snow and colder solutions all the way down to the coast? who hires these people?!!

By the way your signage shows a snowflake on the island.. u arent snowing r ya?

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Yeah but Joe Sobel does. that's Doctor Joe Sobel....so he has to be taken seriously.

I went through chemo when I was 22 yrs old because I was told I had Hodgkins Lymphoma. Spent every fine I had because they told me it didn't look good. I'm now 47 married w 2 kids. Have been cancer free. That doctor I had was wrong. Being a doctor doesn't guarantee you're a genius. Just means you spent a lot of money and time in schooling....

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Here's the link to DT's FB page. He has the 8" line running right up the NJ TPK, just to my east a few miles then right through NYC with 8-12" to the NW of that line and then 12"+ NW of a line from about Valley Forge, PA to White Plains.  He also has Boston getting 80% rain and just a few inches of snow, being too far east (I recall some storm a long time ago people talk about where Boston got way less than DC-NYC, so it's possible) and similarly has the east end of LI and the Jersey Shore at only a few inches with mostly rain.  Only a little less than the NWS has, overall, as he has the warmth going further inland for a longer time.  Could well be correct, though. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-final-call-northeast-new-england-/646858195361442

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I like the logic and rationale behind this- Not loving numbers as I think they area tad low across the board but you R the pro so Ill look on and respectfully disagree but admire the great work while understanding your caveats.

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Here's the link to DT's FB page. He has the 8" line running right up the NJ TPK, just to my east a few miles then right through NYC with 8-12" to the NW of that line and then 12"+ NW of a line from about Valley Forge, PA to White Plains.  He also has Boston getting 80% rain and just a few inches of snow, being too far east (I recall some storm a long time ago people talk about where Boston got way less than DC-NYC, so it's possible) and similarly has the east end of LI and the Jersey Shore at only a few inches with mostly rain.  Only a little less than the NWS has, overall, as he has the warmth going further inland for a longer time.  Could well be correct, though. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-final-call-northeast-new-england-/646858195361442

He took no risk his numbers virtually miror the 8-12 Upton has for KNYC

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I like the logic and rationale behind this- Not loving numbers as I think they area tad low across the board but you R the pro so Ill look on and respectfully disagree but admire the great work while understanding your caveats.

Thanks, but I need to be a little conservative as this is a very delicate situation.

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Is it true Goldberg/Smith et al at Channel 7 can't deviate from the AccuWeather party line?  I thought they will do that, but maybe my memory is faulty. 

I've heard others say they do but I haven't seen it. There have been some bad snow forecasts from accwx over the years and they seem to follow it... if you compare their seven day forcast to accuwx it always looks identical to me , right down to the eact same temp forcast.

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I went through chemo when I was 22 yrs old because I was told I had Hodgkins Lymphoma. Spent every fine I had because they told me it didn't look good. I'm now 47 married w 2 kids. Have been cancer free. That doctor I had was wrong. Being a doctor doesn't guarantee you're a genius. Just means you spent a lot of money and time in schooling....

Glad to hear you're doing well....and to your point, you're absolutely right about docs, they put their socks and underwear on just like the rest of us...they just get paid a whole lot more.

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Thanks, but I need to be a little conservative as this is a very delicate situation.

I think this is very important and should be emphasized. We are talking about a rather delicate situation because little nuances can have a huge impact on snow totals. It's not easy putting snow amounts for this storm at all so I'm not going to criticize some of the forecast totals like some on here have. Start low and if you see things trending toward higher totals then you can increase amounts. 

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What is interesting is I've heard almost no mention of the dryslot/break during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Most are just saying snow to sleet and rain then back to snow but not really talking about the fact that the sleet/rain will be light for a good 6 to 8 hours before the final batch starts to move in (assuming it does).

 

I'm sure alot of people will be surprised if at 1 or 2:00 its not doing much but drizzling out

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The mets know more than those on this board. Its not as easy as just reading qpf amounts and making a forecast. Other things are factored in. This board was hyping NAM output during the playbyplay but the truth was when donsutherland posted the actual ouput which was much lower than the hypers portrayed. This board is not objective at all about snowfall totals. I saw very litlle analysis of the gfs latest run and its cutting back of totals. The ccb is no sure thing and amounts can be adjusted upward tomorrow after the lull if need be

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