rossi Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just spoke with Alan Kasper - Mr conservative says only mixing will be in SE Jersey - the rest all snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Channel 5 Good day NY is goign with rain/snow in NYC, low snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB and DT going 8-12 in NYC more N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB and DT going 8-12 in NYC more N and W JB and DT agreeing? Ok now we know what htey are predicting is going to bust, but they will claim they were right all along (especially DT) But will they bust high or low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just spoke with Alan Kasper - Mr conservative says only mixing will be in SE Jersey - the rest all snow!!!! Its good to be conservative in these types of set ups - plus Alan knows NJ weather better then anyone - also notice he is going for another period of snow later friday http://nj1015.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just spoke with Alan Kasper - Mr conservative says only mixing will be in SE Jersey - the rest all snow!!!! Nice! Did he give amounts yet? Also- non weather related question , but do you talk to CC at all anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Steve D is going with 4-8 for NYC . Changes to freezing rain and then rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Steve D is going with 4-8 for NYC . Changes to freezing rain and then rain for the area. This is why you don't want the Euro and its west solution to verify - either its going to changeover or we get dry slotted for a time - right now Euro is hard to beat especially when it has some support - 3 -6 or 4 -8 then the messsy changeover is a good call for NYC - not going to be a major snowstorm until you get further into the western half of NJ and eastern PA if the Euro is right the 12Z Euro will determine if Upton just puts out advisories or watches for individual areas or waits till 0Z model runs are analysed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well steve d is in a heap of trouble, no model shows mixing propblems till you on the fsr most eastern part of LI with se NJ being on the same fence and for now 4-8" is a good call but as of now that might be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chris cimino (nbc4) has 10-14" city n&w..highest totals I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Craig Allen, who has a history of being cautious and level-headed, had some interesting comments on his Facebook page... I see some rather low forecast totals for L.I. Perhaps its based on what happened with last week's storm but the parameters from surface on up are colder. The only thing that could shoot the critical levels over to a plain rain situation would be a closer track to the coast and so far, almost every model has the storm getting very close to the 70/40 benchmark for perfection. Plus, as mentioned yesterday, the near shore water temps are only in the 30's this winter so warming the surface will take much longer than in past winters with a warmer ocean. All the work would have to be done aloft. For this argument, I'll say this scenario could play out well south (NJ shore south of I-195) and well east (Rt 112 to the Forks) otherwise, I'd think a 6" snowfall is good for everyone for starters. And then ramp it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Henry M used the B word this morn for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well steve d is in a heap of trouble, no model shows mixing propblems till you on the fsr most eastern part of LI with se NJ being on the same fence and for now 4-8" is a good call but as of now that might be too low. I think pretty much everyone is good for 6"+ and quite possibly much more. Tonight 0z can be used to really lock in amounts. Every model except the wretched GFS has a strong front end burst and a back-end heavy snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well steve d is in a heap of trouble, no model shows mixing propblems till you on the fsr most eastern part of LI with se NJ being on the same fence and for now 4-8" is a good call but as of now that might be too low. He has been saying that he thinks the storm tracks east and if so then accumulations would go up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There was a writeup about him on nj.com and I think this map is nuts...but on the other hand looking back at his past forecasts he's done pretty well this winter. Based on the qpf trends if we were to stay 90% snow this could almost verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the globals were a bit further east, and I mean just a few ticks to the east then the map above would not be so crazy as we would see 90% of snow with a ton of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There was a writeup about him on nj.com and I think this map is nuts...but on the other hand looking back at his past forecasts he's done pretty well this winter. Based on the qpf trends if we were to stay 90% snow this could almost verify I think thats a legit call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the globals were a bit further east, and I mean just a few ticks to the east then the map above would not be so crazy as we would see 90% of snow with a ton of QPF. I think that pink area should all be 8-16 with a more narrow swath of 14-20 over NC/NW NJ. Blue should be 6-12 and the coast 3-6 but you're right we're seeing some models give us in excess of 2" liquid so even 80% snow 16" could verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There was a writeup about him on nj.com and I think this map is nuts...but on the other hand looking back at his past forecasts he's done pretty well this winter. Based on the qpf trends if we were to stay 90% snow this could almost verify Based of NAM . If you cut these in half EAST of the TPKE South of the Driscoll I thin kit becomes a good map Ah done at 8 am . No Wonder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From WPC- Cisco ***SOME BIG, UGLY FLIES IN THE WEATHER OINTMENT WITH THE NEWEST DATA COMING IN. IT IS NOW NOT POSSIBLE TO GIVE A MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL FORECAST COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FOR THE STORM EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THE INTRUSION OF WARM AIR IS AN EMERGENT, GLARING ISSUE. WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW-VS-RAIN, ALL BETS ARE OFF ON ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, THE GENERAL FORECAST I ISSUED LATE LAST EVENING SHOULD SERVE REASONABLY. I WILL UPDATE WITH WHAT INFORMATION I CAN LATER IN THE DAY. MEA CULPA*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just listened to the radio and this station just said 1-3 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just listened to the radio and this station just said 1-3 inches lol If the EURO verifies and we have to depend on "wraparound" snows it may be just 6-8" and done and less towards the coast. Relying on wraparound snows/CCB almost never works out. Last time was christmas 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the EURO verifies and we have to depend on "wraparound" snows it may be just 6-8" and done and less towards the coast. Relying on wraparound snows/CCB almost never works out. Last time was christmas 2002 Last time was 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the EURO verifies and we have to depend on "wraparound" snows it may be just 6-8" and done and less towards the coast. Relying on wraparound snows/CCB almost never works out. Last time was christmas 2002 Last Feb worked out pretty well with wraparound snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the EURO verifies and we have to depend on "wraparound" snows it may be just 6-8" and done and less towards the coast. Relying on wraparound snows/CCB almost never works out. Last time was christmas 2002 Jan 26, 2011, 3/4 of the snow was wraparound and there was 12" in 5 hours. Not saying this will happen again but if we have a closed 500mb low go by, it will be a fun few hours even if there's rain for a time on the front end. The warmer trend on the Euro is a little disconcerting, I have to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Last time was 2011 Did pretty well last February 8th/9th with wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Last Feb worked out pretty well with wraparound snows. Typically when you have to rely on them it doesnt work out to its full potential as advertised. Ive been down this road before and its makes me jitter, its snows, dryslots/ drizzles with some snow on the end and thats it. Inland areas are the ones that get it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Last Feb worked out pretty well with wraparound snows. Correct. The night of February 8 into the early morning of February 9 had tremendous wrap-around snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 upped totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.