Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I created a blog for the 13-14th storm threat. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=74128&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 his post an hour ago made no sense: "** ALERT ** ALL WEATHER MODELS SHIFT TO BIG INLAND SNOWSTORM SCENARIO OF EUROPEAN MODEL *" and of course now, in addition to making no sense, it has become obsolete. Right I think he did that before the last euro run on purpose. Now his latest post says the euro shifts east but still turns to rain in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Right I think he did that before the last euro run on purpose. Now his latest post says the euro shifts east but still turns to rain in nyc Last Tuesday he wrote this: " *** ALERT ** The period from FEB 10 to FEB 20 for the CONUS east of the Mississippi river... it looks QUIET & CALM with Temps either Normal or maybe 1-2 degrees above Normal and not even a hint of ANY Significant winter storms . The over all pattern TURNS not just unfavorable for eastern US winter storms but downright HOSTILE . The development of the BIIIG Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska alters the pattern over North America ina major way." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Last Tuesday he wrote this: " *** ALERT ** The period from FEB 10 to FEB 20 for the CONUS east of the Mississippi river... it looks QUIET & CALM with Temps either Normal or maybe 1-2 degrees above Normal and not even a hint of ANY Significant winter storms . The over all pattern TURNS not just unfavorable for eastern US winter storms but downright HOSTILE . The development of the BIIIG Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska alters the pattern over North America ina major way." While this dead wrong currently it may not be that bad next week. I think the mid week threat is the end of the party around here for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Last Tuesday he wrote this: " *** ALERT ** The period from FEB 10 to FEB 20 for the CONUS east of the Mississippi river... it looks QUIET & CALM with Temps either Normal or maybe 1-2 degrees above Normal and not even a hint of ANY Significant winter storms . The over all pattern TURNS not just unfavorable for eastern US winter storms but downright HOSTILE . The development of the BIIIG Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska alters the pattern over North America ina major way." If the PV shifts to over Alaska, that's essentially the end of winter for us unless that shifts away. That's about the worst pattern we could have. That's pretty much 40s and calm weather pending any cutters that come through courtesy of the rampaging Pacific jet. Hopefully this storm for Thursday pans out because it would be lights out for the snowpack fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 First guess from DT https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645606618819933&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 First guess from DT https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645606618819933&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Not sure what justifies the low amounts when he's following the euro ensembles and they have much higher amounts for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure what justifies the low amounts when he's following the euro ensembles and they have much higher amounts for the coast The map makes no sense to me at all but it's cool. He's a met and I'm not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure what justifies the low amounts when he's following the euro ensembles and they have much higher amounts for the coast You know what justifies it : Pure haterad for the Northeast region in general and NYC specfically, his > 4in amount around here lower than any model ( other than the out 2 lunch GFS) but its his usual jab at us . Uknow what? OK & Ill laugh all the way to the bank with a potentially historic winter while he cries in 5 inches for winter down south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 JB , thinks if the GEM is this juiced inside 72 hours look for the Euro to crank But for some reason , he`s worried about a more W track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mitchell Gaines mentioned in the Philadelphia forum larger and deeper storms have one last shift west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mitchell Gaines mentioned in the Philadelphia forum larger and deeper storms have one last shift west.... As does JB says its coming WEST , .aggravating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ScreenHunter_65 Feb. 10 19.47.png I wish it would take that track. It wouldn't mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB saying , he`s not paying attention to the American models , thinks the UKMET is right and thinks the Euro will be west at 0z . We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB saying , he`s not paying attention to the American models , thinks the UKMET is right and thinks the Euro will be west at 0z . We will see. Lol. There's no mechanism in this pattern to stall out a low like that off our shores. It's absurd and he will be hideously wrong. Euro will likely be east with some better sampling of the kicker hopefully now ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol. There's no mechanism in this pattern to stall out a low like that off our shores. It's absurd and he will be hideously wrong. Euro will likely be east with some better sampling of the kicker hopefully now ingested. Theres no talk of a stall - the UKMET comes from OBX to AC . " Kickers " don't save you from NEG tilted bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Theres no talk of a stall - the UKMET comes from OBX to AC . " Kickers " don't save you from NEG tilted bombs It's what the Ukie is doing. It sits the low off ACY and occludes it. There's no mechanism to accomplish that in this pattern. Underestimating the GL low just because there is a negative tilted bombing low is a huge mistake. I've seen that underestimation bite a forecast in the arse too many times to count. I'll add that the Ukie is on it's own with that depiction. Not even the well west 12z Euro and it's ensembles depicted that idiocy on the Ukie. Also these days the Euro often following suit wiith the Ukie theory has become a farse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's what the Ukie is doing. It sits the low off ACY and occludes it. There's no mechanism to accomplish that in this pattern. Underestimating the GL low just because there is a negative tilted bombing low is a huge mistake. I've seen that underestimation bite a forecast in the arse too many times to count. I like OBX to the mouth of the Delaware then 75 miles E of AC . My issue is if the Euro is neg tilted at OBX you will see it come due N like the UKMET . Wana get passed the Euro before I can dismiss the UKIE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's what the Ukie is doing. It sits the low off ACY and occludes it. There's no mechanism to accomplish that in this pattern. Underestimating the GL low just because there is a negative tilted bombing low is a huge mistake. I've seen that underestimation bite a forecast in the arse too many times to count. I'll add that the Ukie is on it's own with that depiction. Not even the well west 12z Euro and it's ensembles depicted that idiocy on the Ukie. I think he was talking about the track not whether it stalls or not. A track from nc to AC is still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think he was talking about the track not whether it stalls or not. A track from nc to AC is still possible Track is not impossible of course but again I think any model that underestimates the Great Lakes low acting as a kicker and tracks the storm in the manner the Ukie does is very suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Track is not impossible of course but again I think any model that underestimates the Great Lakes low acting as a kicker and tracks the storm in the manner the Ukie does is very suspect. I think the low will try to climb north or just east of north for a time-that is one powerful trough and it will spin up the low fast. Also lots of Gulf moisture. The key is really how fast the northern stream is, and how fast the southern stream system is. If these are faster, the resulting trough will be forced east. If they are slower, tracks like the UK are possible. Hopefully the Euro edge east a little bit tonight but I have a feeling it will be very similar to the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mike Woods Fox 5 says 4-6" for NYC/Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ...rich hoffman(news12 LI) saying 1-3" for the east end..guess he is seeing mostly rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bill Evans had a good map. 10-16 maybe 20 miles west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB thinks NYC 6 to 12 12 to 24 Well N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are the media outlets being overly conservative with this storm afraid of busting high and creating histeria? It seems like with all of the guidance the calls I am seeing for NYC East are on the light side and almost ALL include changing over... it seems like many of the models are showing and trending otherwise or at least minimizing the effect of the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bill Evans had a good map. 10-16 maybe 20 miles west of NYC. Evans is pretty good, I think ABC does the best job locally. Once saw a tweet from Evans that said don't even waste your time with anyone else, ABC's forecast will be better. Guy has confidence..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are the media outlets being overly conservative with this storm afraid of busting high and creating histeria? It seems like with all of the guidance the calls I am seeing for NYC East are on the light side and almost ALL include changing over... it seems like many of the models are showing and trending otherwise or at least minimizing the effect of the changeover. I think they are just being cautious right now. If the 12z runs hold serve or trend better, the media outlets will be more aggressive with snowfall amounts. Then you will see Bill Evans 10-16 shift into the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All of the TV stations start low and will up the amounts as we close in. Its a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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