Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Plenty cold after D10 , D15 at 500 it tries to take the lowest thicknesses off the west coast , too far back the trough in the east will deeper than modeled , cant post map . but the new day 12 looked like todays day 15 3 days ago and now at day 12 - theres a deep trough through the lakes Euro bias GFS seems to have handed this -EPO pattern better any way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Steve D says to throw the GFS out and that its impossible to drive a shortwave trough into the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS seems to have handed this -EPO pattern better any way.... The NEG WPO is really what has helped hold this pattern together , We are headed to 4 SD below normal there and that pumps the ridge through Alaska , across the Pole and keeps the Dam in place . So all out Cold is locked into Canada and it has pulsed down all winter . Pattern stay with us thru end of FEB , by that time many will want this to break . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Steve D says to throw the GFS out and that its impossible to drive a shortwave trough into the PV. The PV is yielding as the shortwave approaches it, and then begins to interact with the trough. If that's the case, a solution too warm for snow is certainly possible, even likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT going nuts on storms on his website. Go to https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?sk=wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Steve D says that the storm on Monday could drop a fresh snow pack which would help lock in the cold temps for Wed event. Loves the GGEM and says that it makes the most sense. Link to video here. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/01/30/video-discussion-for-january-30-2014/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Steve D says that the storm on Monday could drop a fresh snow pack which would help lock in the cold temps for Wed event. Loves the GGEM and says that it makes the most sense. Link to video here. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/01/30/video-discussion-for-january-30-2014/ Perhaps for a time meaning a longer period of icing but I don't think snowpack helps much once winds shift around to the E/SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Steve D says that the storm on Monday could drop a fresh snow pack which would help lock in the cold temps for Wed event. Loves the GGEM and says that it makes the most sense. Link to video here. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/01/30/video-discussion-for-january-30-2014/ Steve D-the ultimate optimistic weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mid levels aren't helped by a snowpack, and eventually the surface will torch even inland on east or south winds. For the coast it's irrelevant either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DT going nuts on storms on his website. Go to https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?sk=wall Has he got anything right this year. He has been awful with his snow maps in my area for a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Has he got anything right this year. He has been awful with his snow maps in my area for a few storms. he called the january 2nd storm about 10 days before it happened. he got the snow forecast exactly right for my area on january 21. he also called for a cold snowy winter. he's had his ups and downs over the years, but overall he's been very very good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JB says the monday event will be further north, likes the Euro for the 2/5 and 2/8 threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM feeding the weenies: The ECMWF monthly control run through early March is just wild looking. Big storms right into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM feeding the weenies: The ECMWF monthly control run through early March is just wild looking. Big storms right into early March. But PB GFI just said that the pattern breaks by late February according to the JMA weeklies and CFS. I am confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 But PB GFI just said that the pattern breaks by late February according to the JMA weeklies and CFS. I am confused. JMA and CFS? Who cares what they say? Not that the Euro has been much better in the super long range. Regardless it's all speculation anyway and a crap shoot basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JMA and CFS? Who cares what they say? Not that the Euro has been much better in the super long range. Regardless it's all speculation anyway and a crap shoot basically. JMA weeklies have blown away any other tool this year . The cfsv2 has also been good forecasting the cold , cant ignore it because it doesn't say cold after March 1 , its COLD thru Feb , lets up a little week 3 . but back week 4 Cant see the weeklies in March , Feb looks looks cold and the analogs lean towards it breaking , ( like the CFSV2 says ) HM is a smart guy . So maybe he is right . I said we break when Feb is done .,HM says early March , not sure if that's a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JMA weeklies have blown away any other tool this year . The cfsv2 has also been good forecasting the cold , cant ignore it because it doesn't say cold . Cant see the weeklies in March , Feb looks looks cold and the analogs lean towards it breaking , ( like the CFSV2 says ) HM is a smart guy . So maybe he is right . I said we break when Feb is done .,HM says early March , not sure if that's a big difference Past performance doesn't mean it continues performing similarly. It's worth a look but to take any of these super long range tools seriously is basically throwing a dart at a dart board while being blindfolded lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OMG worrying about the pattern 4 weeks out? who cares anyway if it breaks in March, it's mostly over by then anway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OMG worrying about the pattern 4 weeks out? who cares anyway if it breaks in March, it's mostly over by then anway Honestly though march is when we want to start tracking our first 70 degree days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly though march is when we want to start tracking our first 70 degree days! Exactly. I'm done with winter by 3/15 and tracking some joker system that might drop 1-3 on the grass and be gone in a day...need results the next month or we're toast regardless of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Steve D says to throw the GFS out and that its impossible to drive a shortwave trough into the PV. You should ask him why and how the GFS is showing it, if it's impossible. Maybe the GFS needs an update to its model physics...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 wow...Spring coming in March...Who would have thought?...lets get thru February before we get to March...we are due for an April storm and the analogs agree...If February continues well below average then March will be the warmer month...If February torches winter comes back for a visit in March and April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SO much for JB's "the cold snap is going to cause damage similar to a major hurrican hit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DT relatively aggressive on the first guess for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 congrats SnowGoose... tapping your inner weenie... i think that's the first time a met has posted a DT map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 wow...Spring coming in March...Who would have thought?...lets get thru February before we get to March...we are due for an April storm and the analogs agree...If February continues well below average then March will be the warmer month...If February torches winter comes back for a visit in March and April... wow...Spring coming in March...Who would have thought?...lets get thru February before we get to March...we are due for an April storm and the analogs agree...If February continues well below average then March will be the warmer month...If February torches winter comes back for a visit in March and April... Seen plenty of wicked March storms; you can get big blizzards in March, tho it has been quiet in recent years. i'll never forget the 10-11 inches of concrete after 93 superstorm; had to close the schools for days because the stuff was hard to remove; I had to use a garden spade to dig out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Steve D has 1-3" for NYC, 3-6" CNJ/SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Steve D has 1-3" for NYC, 3-6" CNJ/SNJ he is too far south with the 3 -6 - and too far south with the 1 - 3 must not have seen the 12Z data yet - impossible to predict snow amounts with this one yet since the models have not stopped trending north yet http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Screen-Shot-2014-02-01-at-10.17.22-AM.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If it was me, I would have waited until this evening before putting out a snowfall accumulation map especially since the models seem to be trending further north. But both DT and Steve D. will be able to adjust their accumulation maps in subsequent updates if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If it was me, I would have waited until this evening before putting out a snowfall accumulation map especially since the models seem to be trending further north. But both DT and Steve D. will be able to adjust their accumulation maps in subsequent updates if needed.Kind of interesting of the negativity toward prof. Mets.When they bust the amateurs knock em, and when they get it right, well anybody who reads models could have seen it.Some of them have to put out maps earlier than t hey would like , because there clients expect it. Most people here would love to be the first to nail an event. Responsible weather analysis is all I want here, respecting both hobbyist and met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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