Bevo Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 I know everyone is going to say I'm crazy but I really didn't like the looks of the 2m temps on the gfs. I know the 850's were good and we're 7 days out but imo we would like to see the 2m temps colder or for this to come through at night. You know, I typically don't consider 2m temps at this stage, but given the history of the last two winters, I'm inclined to agree with you. The 850's didn't get it done back in January with that ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This will all change, probably want be nothing by the time next week gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have never been on Spring break with half a foot of snow in my life so not buying it yet. There is always a first but seriously...been awhile since a big March snowstorm(widespread MTNS/Foothills/Piedmont). Anyone know of the last big March snowstorm to affect the entire state of NC without shadowing over someone etc...? Probably not in my lifetime anyway. Would require some digging for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the blocking is becoming stronger the past couple cycles so any shortwaves will be forced further SE underneath it. the gfs has a wave diving SE then E off the SC coast while the euro breaks a piece of the northern stream and phases it on the backside off the VA coast. the canadian basically has a miller B. the potential is there as we enter a pretty darn good pattern....best in years imo. anyone who thought winter was over is wrong as the signal for a -nao +pna pattern has been showing up for a while now. most of us have been sitting back quietly to see if it becomes legit. its now pretty close and the signs are there for something big along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anyone know of the last big March snowstorm to affect the entire state of NC without shadowing over someone etc...? Probably not in my lifetime anyway. Would require some digging for sure. Definitely March 1-2 1980 - http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have never been on Spring break with half a foot of snow in my life so not buying it yet. There is always a first but seriously...been awhile since a big March snowstorm(widespread MTNS/Foothills/Piedmont). Anyone know of the last big March snowstorm to affect the entire state of NC without shadowing over someone etc...? Probably not in my lifetime anyway. Would require some digging for sure. March 1993... It was obviously huge from I-85 westward, but it was also featured accumulating snowfall much further east. March 2009........ March 2010 was okay, too. Those are all in your lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the thing with you SE folks, i havent been here long enough to consider myself one yet....but you guys get one or two runs 6/7 days out and you get way too attached/emotional about it. your posting clown snow maps, worrying about R/S lines, say things like, "it will change, prob be nothing when next week gets here", and on and on...when you should be focusing on the fact that the pattern is becoming quite favorable and thats all you can ask for. some fine folks on here have said before, "we need the cold first for it to snow". well thats kind of the same deal here. I say, "we need the pattern first for it to snow". you cant just look at individual runs a week out and worry about qpf outputs in your backyard then jump off the bridge the next day when the qpf bullseye shifted from your driveway to 10 miles down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If the Euro says no at this range, I'm obliged to believe it here in the next little bit. 2 meter temps aren't great even on the GFS from what I gather also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Recent March snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The Euro looks like it's coming in further south so far. NE vortex is further SW ... ULL over the Great Lakes is further south ... I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Folks, The 0Z Doc has as of hour 126 the energy assocaited with 3/5-6 ~150 miles south of the 12Z Wed Doc. Let's see if that has further south and colder implications once into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have never been on Spring break with half a foot of snow in my life so not buying it yet. There is always a first but seriously...been awhile since a big March snowstorm(widespread MTNS/Foothills/Piedmont). Anyone know of the last big March snowstorm to affect the entire state of NC without shadowing over someone etc...? Probably not in my lifetime anyway. Would require some digging for sure. NC is 550 miles east/west. That's the distance between Greensboro and Hartford, CN. A full state snow is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 1004 mb LP in central SC at hr 144. It's close for N NC. Looks like some CAD may be working in? I'm somewhat puzzled that 850s are even close given the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Per the 0Z Doc clown, Nashville gets ~0.5" and Knoxville gets ~1.5". WNC gets pounded with 1-4" SW mtns to 4-10" NW mtns. Also, the NC/VA border area gets hit hard with ~8". Superjames gets ~4-5" while Brick gets ~3-4". Hopefully Brick is sleeping. Otherwise, I forsee a sleepless night for the Brickster due to the intense excitememt generated by this run for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Per the 0Z Doc clown, Nashville gets ~0.5" and Knoxville gets ~1.5". WNC gets pounded with 1-4" SW mtns to 4-10" NW mtns. Also, the NC/VA border area gets hit hard with ~8". Superjames gets ~4-5" while Brick gets ~3-4". Hopefully Brick is sleeping. Otherwise, I forsee a sleepless night for the Brickster due to the intense excitememt generated by this run for NC. Thanks, Larry! I am assuming it is rain-to-snow for much of NC? Just a tick further south and it's really game on, it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Per the 0Z Doc clown, Nashville gets ~0.5" and Knoxville gets ~1.5". WNC gets pounded with 1-4" SW mtns to 4-10" NW mtns. Also, the NC/VA border area gets hit hard with ~8". Superjames gets ~4-5" while Brick gets ~3-4". Hopefully Brick is sleeping. Otherwise, I forsee a sleepless night for the Brickster due to the intense excitememt generated by this run for NC. I am awake and I am digging the trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gawx is it showing any for hickory or shelby...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How about the weekend, Larry. I'm still holding on to my .01, but I'm beginning to think Meteostar is just recycling the precip, though the 850's, and 2m's are changing, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I am awake and I am digging the trends! While I try to dig up anything negative I can for 7 day storms, the EURO was a little exciting was expecting worse. Will end this by saying I want 2-4 day trends not 5-7 day trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was looking at the GFS ensembles and they really diverge at about 120 hours- once again this could do almost anything (except probably be far enough south to give ATL any significant snow). we really have no clue yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gawx is it showing any for hickory or shelby...thanks HKY ~0.5"; Shelby near 0" measurable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm guessing KCAE is totally rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 HKY ~0.5"; Shelby near 0" measurable Wow, sharp cutoff between here and Hickory. It better not go any further north, ha. Thanks for the info, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the thing with you SE folks, i havent been here long enough to consider myself one yet....but you guys get one or two runs 6/7 days out and you get way too attached/emotional about it. your posting clown snow maps, worrying about R/S lines, say things like, "it will change, prob be nothing when next week gets here", and on and on...when you should be focusing on the fact that the pattern is becoming quite favorable and thats all you can ask for. some fine folks on here have said before, "we need the cold first for it to snow". well thats kind of the same deal here. I say, "we need the pattern first for it to snow". you cant just look at individual runs a week out and worry about qpf outputs in your backyard then jump off the bridge the next day when the qpf bullseye shifted from your driveway to 10 miles down the street. Welcome and appreciate your input. Everything you state here is correct, but unfortunately it just kind of comes with the territory the farther south you go in latitude. We see so few model runs over the course of a winter that show an actual winter storm inside of a week, and even way less actual winter storms, that it becomes difficult to separate the moth from the flame when it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was looking at the GFS ensembles and they really diverge at about 120 hours- once again this could do almost anything (except probably be far enough south to give ATL any significant snow). we really have no clue yet. like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How about the weekend, Larry. I'm still holding on to my .01, but I'm beginning to think Meteostar is just recycling the precip, though the 850's, and 2m's are changing, lol. T Tony, You may get close to 0.02". Keep hope alive! No, despite the resemblance, I'm not Norman Vincent Peale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 snow map can be found here: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=493429257371004&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Tony, You may get close to 0.02". Keep hope alive! No, despite the resemblance, I'm not Norman Vincent Peale. Hey, small steps Looks like the whole impetus has shifted to later, which makes sense if the cold is only just getting established. More room for the ULLs to play later...and the gulf to join in. Oh, I'm down with positive thinking, not Norman....that's mostly all we have..... to go along with the shiny things Thanks. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the thing with you SE folks, i havent been here long enough to consider myself one yet....but you guys get one or two runs 6/7 days out and you get way too attached/emotional about it. your posting clown snow maps, worrying about R/S lines, say things like, "it will change, prob be nothing when next week gets here", and on and on...when you should be focusing on the fact that the pattern is becoming quite favorable and thats all you can ask for. some fine folks on here have said before, "we need the cold first for it to snow". well thats kind of the same deal here. I say, "we need the pattern first for it to snow". you cant just look at individual runs a week out and worry about qpf outputs in your backyard then jump off the bridge the next day when the qpf bullseye shifted from your driveway to 10 miles down the street. Not everybody on here gets excited. I like the trend but also know its too many days away. If this was sunday i would be more excited. One run means nothing. However if its still there tomorrow somebody on here will start an obs thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Massive spread on the Euro ensemble members for the system early week, most say farther north. Not at all excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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