jburns Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thermals are a mess on the GFS, without phasing there is no mechanism to crash heights on the backside and setup the conveyer, just the attendant cold pool aloft which is pretty weak. New rule. When the precip pattern looks like a one man sub, you do not want to be in the periscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Thermals are a mess on the GFS, without phasing there is no mechanism to crash heights on the backside and setup the conveyer, just the attendant cold pool aloft which is pretty weak. Is the EURO phasing energy? Or is this just a low formation off he coast? If not it may be too warm for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is the EURO phasing energy? Or is this just a low formation off he coast? If not it may be too warm for most of the SE. Yes, the past 2 runs have phased in energy over the Lakes, hence the bombogenesis off the VA Capes, GFS is a solitary vort, kinda like the little engine that could, just not in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yes, the past 2 runs have phased in energy over the Lakes, hence the bombogenesis off the VA Capes, GFS is a solitary vort, kinda like the little engine that could, just not in early March. When you look at the Euro more closely and you see it breaking off a piece of the low over the lakes that cuts off for the energy to phase with it seems that has high bust potential. That feature doesn't even occur until roughly day 6. It's the hand we are dealt, but man if the Euro pulls this off it's going into the hall of fame. And the thing is, we need the energy diving down to not get to far south as it will miss the phase as the 2nd piece of energy is over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 From the new England forum. Euro ensembles are farther south. If taken literally they are a southern apps/va snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 From the new England forum. Euro ensembles are farther south. If taken literally they are a southern apps/va snow storm. A reminder to be sure and wear the proper clothing when venturing into any forum that contains areas above 40 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is that a 1092 mb high showing up over Greenland on the 81 hour nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Is that a 1092 mb high showing up over Greenland on the 81 hour nam? Yes, it is. I think the world record was 1084 mb over Siberia some time ago. Silly NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yes, it is. I think the world record was 1084 mb over Siberia some time ago. Silly NAM. And snow in the central Gulf. Of course. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 And snow in the central Gulf. Of course. Why not? Unfortunately, BL temperatures are probably way too warm there over the water (50F+ according to the NAM). Otherwise, we could head down and rent a boat and go on an AmericanWx snow chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Unfortunately, BL temperatures are probably way too warm there over the water (50F+ according to the NAM). Otherwise, we could head down and rent a boat and go on an AmericanWx snow chase. Excuse me, but I'm using the blue weenie 850 line to denote snow. Don't worry me with boundary layer temperatures and mess up my lamenting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Unfortunately, BL temperatures are probably way too warm there over the water (50F+ according to the NAM). Otherwise, we could head down and rent a boat and go on an AmericanWx snow chase. Hell yeah. That would be fun. But yeah 2m temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 0z GFS running -- at 120 hours, the midwest closed low has two contours and is south of 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Same at 129 -- stronger and south (perhaps also a bit west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This bad boy is coming south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This bad boy is coming south! Go on and say it skip. Prepare for ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This bad boy is coming south! is that a good or bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Looking decent for CLT west at hr 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Uh oh -- stopped it's "descent" between hours 141 and 147. Could also be that the "southness" is just faster. Still, at 147, the closed low is over Nashville vs western KY. on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 RDU looks like snow at 156 but 2m temps could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Similar type evolution as 03/01/09 storm...that one had stronger west coast ridging behind it, but much less blocking in front of it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0228.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0301.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yeah, this is really just a speed thing as I look at it more closely. Early in the run it was digging more -- then it just sped up. Actually the 18z run had the closed low farther south at its southern most point (later in the run, albeit) than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 HP to the north is much stronger than the 12z run. This run is also colder. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well regardless of the upper features, this one certainly turns out pretty well for N.C.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 FWIW--- Joe Bastardi GFS drives a storm and I dot know that I have ever seen this.. from Montana to off SC next week. I like path of Canadian/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Wow. Just wow. Crushes wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Where the hell is everybody -- we finally get a model run showing a big NC snowstorm and everybody is watching Leno????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Oh, God, NC gets plastered!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Where the hell is everybody -- we finally get a model run showing a big NC snowstorm and everybody is watching Leno????? lol...I'm watching Kimmel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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