March Pattern and Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

The control run is a lower resolution than the op euro.

[burgertime]

Please don't post pay maps, they are copyrighted, thanks.

 

Just to clarify since there is some confusion on this. For certain maps that forecasters get from vendors it is OK to post as they pay a fee to be able to share them. These are mainly vendors such as WSI which works mainly with TV mets and energy consultants. I highly doubt any regular weenie has the money to pay for those rights. 

[calculus1]

Here is GSP's HWO for mostly their entire forecasting area regarding Saturday's potential:

 

 

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THEWESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTUREIS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OFSCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TOSUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLYTO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SPOTTY LIGHTACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTGEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLSOF NORTH CAROLINA.

[griteater]

Kind of reminds me of Dec 2010, we need a perfectly timed phase.  At this range the the Dec 2010 was similarly tracking the low further north too.  Below are the heights from the Dec 2010 storm for Dec 26th.

 

The Dec 2010 storm wave entered the U.S. in southern California (the southern wave), with a northern stream wave phasing in.  This winter we've had the La Nina-like problem of a dominant northern stream and storm track that is too far north and too fast....and as Franklin commented, the 3/6 threat is entering the U.S. in Washington state and tracking to Iowa on today's Euro, making it difficult (tho not impossible with model adjustments), to get it to dig far enough south.

[griteater]

For Fri-Sat, 18z GFS looks pretty good for light snows in parts of Tennessee. Things haven't trended better for the GSP-CLT corridor, but the threat is still there for a weak Greenville meso-low and snow shower enhancement as Bevo alluded to. Will depend on how this trends over the next 48 hours.

[packbacker]

The Dec 2010 storm wave entered the U.S. in southern California (the southern wave), with a northern stream wave phasing in.  This winter we've had the La Nina-like problem of a dominant northern stream and storm track that is too far north and too fast....and as Franklin commented, the 3/6 threat is entering the U.S. in Washington state and tracking to Iowa on today's Euro, making it difficult (tho not impossible with model adjustments), to get it to dig far enough south.

Yeah, I couldn't think of another analog for energy diving in WA, can you?

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, I couldn't think of another analog for energy diving in WA, can you?

me either. Maybe a clipper?

[rduwx]

Our system for the 6th is looking decent on the 18z gfs. 2 contours have closed off at 132 and is now starting it's way south. Now if it can just makes it's way to the SE.

[burgertime]

18z is getting pretty silly with that energy over the midwest around March 6th something tells me this run will be more entertaining than 12z. 

[Nraleigh]

Someone at the other board said Euro control run crushes NC.

DT posted on his facebook page about the March 6 event, I asked him if central NC (RDU) would see much snow.  His response:  NO

[rduwx]

18z is getting pretty silly with that energy over the midwest around March 6th something tells me this run will be more entertaining than 12z. 

I agree burger...But the 18z run ususally is the weenie run.

[superjames1992]

The low that was in southern Illinois at this hour on the 12z run is now in western GA on the 18z run.  The ULL is displaced quite a bit SW from 12z, as well.  Light precip with sub-0C 850s is breaking out at hr 150 in N NC.

 

EDIT: The low is off of CHS at hr 162.  Let's see what happens.  QPF has been light, but will probably explode once it hits the water.  The ULL is a good 100+ miles south of 12z.

[burgertime]

18z is further south and the energy looks stronger. @162 some light snow possibly breaking out around CLT. 

[Southern Track]

18z is further south and the energy looks stronger. @162 some light snow possibly breaking out around CLT.

Colder this run than 12z at 162 as well

[franklin NCwx]

That run works for me!

[burgertime]

I would be more than happy if this run somehow verified...would have to think with the placement of that ULL the 85 corridor would be in a money spot. 

[Brick Tamland]

DT posted on his facebook page about the March 6 event, I asked him if central NC (RDU) would see much snow.  His response:  NO

 

When has he ever been right about anything in NC?

[burgertime]

Based on surface maps the big winner this run looks to be CAE. Someone wake up Jerms. 

[franklin NCwx]

I would be more than happy if this run somehow verified...would have to think with the placement of that ULL the 85 corridor would be in a money spot.

I would like to see it dig to Louisiana!

[Jon]

It looks like it stalls out and just pounds NC.  Ridiculous.  I think it does to NC what it did to the Mid-Atlantic last run (maybe not as severe), though I'm just going off of 24-hour panels.

 

Whatever the case the solution is ridiculous and probably wrong.  I wouldn't mind cashing out, though...

 

 

If the Euro verifies like that it will be a major snowstorm for central/eastern NC/VA.

....Unless surface temps are way up, which I can't see.

 

I'm sure yall know by now but FWIW, the 10:1 snowfall map on weatherbell for the 12z Euro gives no one snow. According to the map coastal VA gets maybe 0.1" snow, and yes that's not liquid, that's snow. This thing needs to be a lot closer to land for ANYONE to cash in.

[Southern Track]

Based on surface maps the big winner this run looks to be CAE. Someone wake up Jerms.

Haven't seen the surface maps, but looks like Midlands to the Coast. Wouldn't that be funny if it verified.

[rduwx]

Same issue with this run that we've been talking about. The through axis needs to be further west. If it were further west the trough would have more of an opportunity to go neg. That's what we need for the moisture to explode.

EDIT: With the pos tilt the moisture is going to be localized to just north of the ULL.

[SnowNiner]

Are we looking at a situation where the double blocking is working out for us?  Robert mentioned that because of the double blocking you'd see energy move north to south in the plains and come around.   Or are we supposed to have more of a trough for that to happen?  Seems like this is just a closed low that is getting blown like a floating balloon south by the blocking winds of two ridges.  Maybe?  Could be?  Possibility?  voice getting gradually higher....perhaps? 

[franklin NCwx]

Are we looking at a situation where the double blocking is working out for us? Robert mentioned that because of the double blocking you'd see energy move north to south in the plains and come around. Or are we supposed to have more of a trough for that to happen? Seems like this is just a closed low that is getting blown like a floating balloon south by the blocking winds of two ridges. Maybe? Could be? Possibility? voice getting gradually higher....perhaps?

it basically moves due south once it gets to south Dakota. You can thabk the nao for that.

[dsaur]

Everybody should take a look at that image and remember it the next time someone says that a ridge has to be along the west coast or just inland for us to get a winter storm. Weather is about so much more than one particular element.

Well, ULL's have been on and off the maps for a while, and any time a ULL is around in winter magic can happen   It's the cold that worries me, and the Gfs has trended toward less cold cold.  Now the latest system is past, and the models can look long and up close at the cold maybe we'll see it come back some.

 I hear the ice cream truck outside, and that reminds me of how ULLs are like ice cream trucks.  The truck drives around like the ULL wanders and excitement follows, in or near the northside of it, lol.  And whenever I hear the ice cream truck, like seeing a ULL on the maps, some ancient yearning arises in me and gives me childlike hope, and a remembered thrill of pleasure   Tony

[metalicwx366]

When has he ever been right about anything?

FYP.

That big Dec 27th EC storm came to par as well as the 4-8 inches for the Carolinas.

[franklin NCwx]

Ukmet has the upper low in northern Missouri at 144.

[WeatherNC]

Ukmet has the upper low in northern Missouri at 144.

 

Yeah, it moves from northern MT at 96 to the central boarder of IA/MO at 144, straight line would have it ivo of SC around 168-180.  The point of entry is actually pretty good for a SE storm, Glacier National Park has always been my benchmark, but usually we then see that dive through the Plains whereas this one just moves along ESE-SE, rather than diving down and rounding the base.  The GFS has virtually zero interaction with any energy over the lakes compared to the EC.  The Euro could also easily take this system up the OH Valley should any phasing take place earlier, something to watch.  

 

This will likely be winter's last gasp for folks in the SE and southern MA outside of elevation.  I recommend we go all in, not like we really have many chips left, and another credible winter wx threat will likely have to wait 8 months for most.  My concern would be, and I mentioned this about a week ago when we saw the tandem block starting to take shape, would be for a system that looks good for us early on, quickly trend towards a MA and NE hit.  My money at this range would be on the mountains of VA/WV up in to central PA.  Kind of stoked though, I am going to put in for some tentative TO next week, likely Weds-Fri, if we can get a storm, not in mby, going to chase.  Granted, 6" in mine is better than 24" in theres, but I came to the realization several years ago sometimes you just have to travel to see a good event on a semi-consistent basis.  CHO the early call!

 

12z ECMWF ens mean at 168 would indicate a fair amount of agreement from the mems, actually quite impressive.

[Shawn]

KCAE eastward in SC is far away from snow looking @ 18z GFS temps around HR 171.

[WeatherNC]

KCAE eastward in SC is far away from snow looking @ 18z GFS temps around HR 171.

 Thermals are a mess on the GFS, without phasing there is no mechanism to crash heights on the backside and setup the conveyer, just the attendant cold pool aloft which is pretty weak.