Cold Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not going to get suckered in this time. If there is a storm, the snow will be VA and north. Yep, if a 7 day snow doesn't work out in Jan., no way it works out in March. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not focusing on any snow chances, but it's (at least) looking like some major freeze possibilities really far south. I think the cold is news enough to track / follow. If northern Florida can get a freeze the last part of March I will be amazed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z GFS is weird looking starting around 150 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 984mb beast on the 18z GFS. Looks like its going to destroy VA MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 984mb beast on the 18z GFS. Looks like its going to destroy VA MA and NE. Western NC looks to do pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not focusing on any snow chances, but it's (at least) looking like some major freeze possibilities really far south. I think the cold is news enough to track / follow. If northern Florida can get a freeze the last part of March I will be amazed. It can happen: In Alachua County (Gainesville, FL), the median last day of a freeze is March 2nd, with the latest freeze date being April 18, 1962. The latest date of a freezing temperature came from both Crestview and Tallahassee on April 23rd, 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 During the Easter Freeze in April 2007, Jacksonville had a low of 31. It was also the only April freeze EVER there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It can happen: In Alachua County (Gainesville, FL), the median last day of a freeze is March 2nd, with the latest freeze date being April 18, 1962. The latest date of a freezing temperature came from both Crestview and Tallahassee on April 23rd, 1993. I think we have a great shot. Snow is going to be real hard to come by, outside the mountains, but the cold (i think) is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The 18z GFS was wild and quite similar to its wild solution at 00z. The clown maps should be a lot of fun for N NC and VA. Surface temps may be an issue, but bah. The Euro is still suppressed, but the GFS is pretty far north (too far north for most). Hopefully, they can meet up at a happy medium somewhere in the middle. The LR 18z GFS is pretty wild. It stays cold with plenty of snow threats right into early April, when it finally appears to possibly warms up. Will it be right? I don't know. Days 11-15: EDIT: GFS clown shows GSO down to just NW of CLT with 8-12" and RDU with almost nothing. Surface temps were likely a factor (actually maybe not, GSO stays 32-34 during the duration of the precip). Of course, clown maps are just for fun, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We need the cold to have the snow, obviously , and if the models are shoeing freezing into Florida, then that would be cold enough of an air mass for Northern areas of the SE to get snow I think we have a great shot. Snow is going to be real hard to come by, outside the mountains, but the cold (i think) is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 WPC Disco... FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY AND RUN-RUN CONTINUITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOST PROMINANT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE ALOFT CONCERNS THE DIGGING AND EWD EJECTION OF ENERGY OUT FROM THE WRN US THEN S-CENTRAL AND SERN US FRI-SUN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOWER ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE. RECENT ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN PARTICULAR HAVE OFFERED MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS THAN RECENT GFS/GEFS. DIFFERENCES ALOFT BECOME CRYSTAL CLEAR BY NEXT SUN...ALBEIT WITHOUT GOOD RUN-RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE SW US WHILE THE 00/06 UTC GFS RUNS INSTEAD OFFER A DEEP SERN US/MID-ATLC COASTAL STORM. ENSEMBLES ARE MIXED/IN THE MIDDLE BUT OVERALL FAVOR A SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS OVER THE SRN/SERN US. THIS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AS INITIALLY VIGOROUS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE TRACKING RATHER BODILY INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ARE MORE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GOOD STREAM IDENTITY WITH A BETTER THAN AVERAGE LINEAR MOTION DOWNSTREAM. LATEST WPC PROGS FRI-SUN/D5-7 WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LESS DEFINED 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WPC PROGS WERE THEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO DEPICT SLIGHTLY BETTER SYSTEM ORGANIZATION CONSISTENT WITH UNCERTAINTY AND A LESS SUPPRESSED SERN US SOLUTION THAN OVERNIGHT PROGS GIVEN AMPLITUDE ALOFT/DYNAMIC POTENTIAL. A WSR FLIGHT LATER TODAY OUT FROM HAWAII MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DATA FOR UPCOMING 00 UTC GUIDANCE. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... A WET SYSTEM ENTERING THE PAC NW MIDWEEK WILL SPREAD MODEST RAIN/SNOW AND SOME ENHANCED TERRAIN AMOUNTS THRU THE WEST BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE S-CENTRAL US THEN GULF COAST FRI-SAT/D5-6 WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE INFLOW MAY LEAD TO HEAVIER QPF...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER STRIPE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD GIVEN THE COLD PATTERN. EMERGENCE FROM THE SERN US BY SUN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS GIVEN POSSIBLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The Euro is still suppressed, but the GFS is pretty far north (too far north for most). Hopefully, they can meet up at a happy medium somewhere in the middle. The Euro will probably cave to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Frank Strait saying on his blog that next weekend will have to be watched for snow for the carolinas. He thought winter was over but not so fast he said for the carolinas. Cold air will be firmly entrentched and here comes the moisture. One last hope, hey its not out of the question, we all know from years past what March and even April can bring to the Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am trying to decide on something simple enough to express. Mostly, the pattern does look feasible for unique continental system development. It seems like the system will begin to show up in Texas? that is a bit like the January system, but, it looks like it will develop on its own and not at the end of a long moisture tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teru Teru Bozu Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I kind of love how vague NWS RAH has decided to be today when discussing this possible event: FOR THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...THE PATTERN WILL BECOMEACTIVE WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE FROM THE NORTHERNROCKIES AND REINFORCING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERNSTATES. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT NEEDTO BE WORKED OUT...SO ITS DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC DETAILS FORTHIS PART OF THE FORECAST. BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THEPATTERN MAY BE TRENDING WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXTWEEKEND. "...wetter and cooler than normal". Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 00z GFS just made a huge shift northward with the precip shield of our first system as of hr 138. EDIT: For the "main event", the 00z GFS shows a Miller B and a nice rainstorm. Looks like a DC crushjob. A very strange run, though. The transfer takes forever and the GFS went from wide right and out to sea at 12z to a Miller B at 00z. Nice consistency. Looks like our block decided to move about 500 miles NE from past runs. Until some other models start backing it up, I wouldn't think we should worry too much, especially with the Euro currently showing suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 00z GFS looks kinda funky. It transfers from C KY to the coast and takes forever.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm just looking at the free maps, but I think the Euro might have just shown a nice hit for most of NC/upstate SC with the day 6-7 storm. I wasn't planning on staying up, but I can't sleep (sleeping in on Sundays FTL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 super J ... give a rundown on timing and impacts for the talked about 2 storms ... as it looks now, please ... sure feels like winter outside thats for sure .. thnks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 EURO still a hit per snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Nothing to get excited about. Models will flip and flop til friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Was this an attempt to troll the board? It seems you have a history of trolling since you've previously only selectively posted your Euro weekly info when those charts projected warm instead of cold in the middle of winter. I know this from casually reading this board since '10 and I'm positive I recall only warm ECMWF weekly posts from Mr. Bob. Delta has noticed the same. Yet, now you wait until mid-March to jump on a setup and compare it to the last widespread 6-10" of snow that SC & NC saw I don't mean to cause a rift, but I call it like I see it... this board wasn't meant to be a place for mind games or to lure false hope to those without Met tags good to hear Queen, although I have seen evidence to the contrary and I'm no fool... many times others would post euro weeklies when they were cold also, saying this is the best setup since January of '11 (back when the PDO wasn't an absolute mess) is a bit of a stretch I think his was point was that at times, it seems like some posters will come out of hibernation just to talk about a model if it shows what they want. I do agree that we usually only see, at least lately, Mr. Bob only talking about how the Euro weeklies are a blowtorch and winter is over. Now I live the euro and usually it shi*s alllllllllllll over the GFS, but this year the weeklies, and somewhat the OP runs have been terrible. That's just my 0.02 cents. You guys have a problem with me let's take it to PM....I am not going to be getting in a pissing contest with you here. This is not the first time clown name has jumped on my posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 You guys have a problem with me let's take it to PM....I am not going to be getting in a pissing contest with you here. This is not the first time clown name has jumped on my posts... I appreciate your realistic approach. It is much more accurate in the long run than commenting on every positive thing that shows up way down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 6z GFS brings something back compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Frank Strait saying on his blog that next weekend will have to be watched for snow for the carolinas. He thought winter was over but not so fast he said for the carolinas. Cold air will be firmly entrentched and here comes the moisture. One last hope, hey its not out of the question, we all know from years past what March and even April can bring to the Mtns. March 25th......... exactly 42 years ago the Upstate of South Carolina got 8 to 12 inches of snow. Biggest flakes of snow I can ever remember seeing fall, from late that morning till after dark that night. And of course, a complete surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I appreciate your realistic approach. It is much more accurate in the long run than commenting on every positive thing that shows up way down the road. Thanks....I definitely prefaced my Jan 2011 comment with... "I would be a little squeamish forecasting any snow outside of higher elevations at this point." in response to Larry saying the models were showing more general light snow (which he was not forecasting)...It is ashame for the winter weather lovers that a good pattern finally comes in late March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Thanks....I definitely prefaced my Jan 2011 comment with... "I would be a little squeamish forecasting any snow outside of higher elevations at this point." in response to Larry saying the models were showing more general light snow (which he was not forecasting)...It is ashame for the winter weather lovers that a good pattern finally comes in late March... I think what happened to DC, the first part of this month, should be a big lesson (or warning) for tracking this potential system. I also think for us to get any snow we'll have to get heavy rates. Any light snow will either not make it to the ground (frozen) or not accumulate (bad surface temps). So it's either a lot or none. **It is a shame** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think what happened to DC, the first part of this month, should be a big lesson (or warning) for tracking this potential system. Yes... very much so! this time there is even more inconsistency in trying to model how the system or back to back systems will behave. By Wednesday it still might not be clear at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Of course we would see signals of setups now. We all knew it was coming. A ****ty winter followed by a cold spring of misery LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well 12z GFS tries with a big storm but not quite there for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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