March Pattern and Discussion

[GaWx]

Congrats to the mountains I guess...again?  For everybody else it's just more cool rain.  Ready for warm, let's get that block in January next time when it can do some good.   

 

C/b snow for more than the mountains at points during 3/22-27. This AO block is looking to dip down to an amazing -5ish! The last sub -5 AO blocks: 12/10, 2/10, 1/10, and 12/09.

 

Edit: How crazy is this block? The Euro runs have had a 1065 mb surface high centered over the North Pole 3/19 with 500 mb heigths approaching 570 dm!

[Bevo]

The GFS spaghetti plots for the -AO are just crazy, I have never seen every member below -5 for the AO.  This is for around March 20-23.  You have to think the mountains are going to cash in with something like this.

 

I will do as I have done all winter - scale back my expectations for such an extreme solution.  That is just a nasty -AO.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The 12z Doc gives a major snow to much of TN and NC 3/21-2! The Brickster gets close to 6" per the clown maps!! 4" for Superjames! 1" Charlotte. Wow! Winter says I'm not finished yet whether you like it or not.

[superjames1992]

Folks,

 The 12z Doc gives a major snow to much of TN and NC 3/21-2! The Brickster gets close to 6" per the clown maps!! 4" for Superjames! 1" Charlotte. Wow! Winter says I'm not finished yet whether you like it or not.

 

Oh, boy.

 

Trying not to get my hopes up...

[Mr Bob]

 

Folks,

 The 12z Doc gives a major snow to much of TN and NC 3/21-2! The Brickster gets close to 6" per the clown maps!! 4" for Superjames! 1" Charlotte. Wow! Winter says I'm not finished yet whether you like it or not.

 If it were only a month ago...I would be a little squeamish forecasting any snow outside of higher elevations at this point. It is certainly the most interesting look since Jan 2011, tho...I really wanted to start thinking about lake weather too...guess we get one more ride this week.

[SnowNiner]

Even if I were to believe that tempatures are going to be remotely cold enough for a good snow in late March...haven't we seen what happens when the EURO shows a storm a week away?  Probably going to cut north because the blocking is JUST not quite as strong as progged.  But I simply don't buy it being cold enough this time of year, no matter the position of the LOW. 

[Chattownsnow]

I can understand not buying a storm in this time frame. But it has happened before and can certainly happen again.

[Mr Bob]

It's 7 days out. Of course it can change...but this time the pattern is more favorable. If it were mid February this thread would already be 10 pages longer. And if you are going to have a record -AO for the time frame, then you can't rule out the possibility of an unusual weather event either. So if there continues to be a consistency in guidance then it will be worth watching.

[downeastnc]

Even if I were to believe that tempatures are going to be remotely cold enough for a good snow in late March...haven't we seen what happens when the EURO shows a storm a week away?  Probably going to cut north because the blocking is JUST not quite as strong as progged.  But I simply don't buy it being cold enough this time of year, no matter the position of the LOW. 

I agree its rare but it is certainly possible, I wonder what this thread would be like if we were around in 1983 and the models showed what was to become the March 23-24 1983 snowstorm....I am sure lots of folks would make post talking about it not being cold enough, its late March, sun angle etc etc etc.

 

That said these storms are rare for a reason.....chances this plays out is pretty low.

 

http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/snowmaps/1983/SE%20snowstorm%20mar24-25,%201983.pdf

[superjames1992]

Even if I were to believe that tempatures are going to be remotely cold enough for a good snow in late March...haven't we seen what happens when the EURO shows a storm a week away?  Probably going to cut north because the blocking is JUST not quite as strong as progged.  But I simply don't buy it being cold enough this time of year, no matter the position of the LOW. 

 

It's a low-probability event, but it has happened before and it will happen again.  Will it happen this year?  Probably not, but it's possible.

 

3/25/71, 3/23/81, and 3/24/83 prove that major winter storms can happen in the SE (outside the mountains) during late March.

 

As a side note, does anyone have an information about the 3/23/81 storm?  It was quite major in the NC western Piedmont/foothills/mountains and into portions of NW SC, but I've not seen a lot about it.

 

[audioguy3107]

OK, how about something a little more likely albeit in the shorter term.  SPC has some of the mid south outlined for a day 4 risk.  Both the NAM and GFS are painting CAPE values between 800 and 1500 J/KG a little to the west of here in southern Tennessee down into central Alabama.  Looks like discrete cells could be in the cards on Monday afternoon transitioning to more of a linear event by the evening/overnight.

 

 

 

[Met1985]

It's 7 days out. Of course it can change...but this time the pattern is more favorable. If it were mid February this thread would already be 10 pages longer. And if you are going to have a record -AO for the time frame, then you can't rule out the possibility of an unusual weather event either. So if there continues to be a consistency in guidance then it will be worth watching.

Good points Mr Bob. Living were I do this really has peaked my interest here in the mountains.

[Met1985]

It's a low-probability event, but it has happened before and it will happen again.  Will it happen this year?  Probably not, but it's possible.

 

3/25/71, 3/23/81, and 3/24/83 prove that major winter storms can happen in the SE (outside the mountains) during late March.

 

As a side note, does anyone have an information about the 3/23/81 storm?  It was quite major in the NC western Piedmont/foothills/mountains and into portions of NW SC, but I've not seen a lot about it.

 

Ya James I have seen some foot plus snows here in the mountains for this late in March before. Euro has been pretty consistent about the cold coming back.

[GaWx]

It's a low-probability event, but it has happened before and it will happen again.  Will it happen this year?  Probably not, but it's possible.

 

3/25/71, 3/23/81, and 3/24/83 prove that major winter storms can happen in the SE (outside the mountains) during late March.

 

 I have to wonder how low of a probability when one considers the very strong model support for an upcoming record -AO block (maybe sub -5) for late March. Going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! So, if we get near or lower than -5 ~3/19-21, when it is progged, it will be unprecedented. Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was in early March.

 

 Actually, if anything, a very strong block like this also probably ups the chance for something very freaky quite far south (due to supression) a little after the peak of the block (far south Miller A). I'm not predicting that...it is just a mention of something to monitor. We'll see.

[WilkesboroDude]

 

  17

 

Snow is especially easy in late March in the foothills IF it comes in during the night through the morning hours. I have seen it happen with only light snow, light amounts, marginable temps, and a warm ground.

 

[dsaur]

 I have to wonder how low of a probability when one considers the very strong model support for an upcoming record -AO block (maybe sub -5) for late March. Going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! So, if we get near or lower than -5 ~3/19-21, when it is progged, it will be unprecedented. Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was in early March.

 

 Actually, if anything, a very strong block like this also probably ups the chance for something very freaky quite far south (due to supression) a little after the peak of the block (far south Miller A). I'm not predicting that...it is just a mention of something to monitor. We'll see.

Lord knows I've been a freak since the later part of the 60's so freaky things happen around me.  I've learned to thrive on it   The low in the gulf with the high pushing down got my interest a while back, and the now maybe super freak -ao, just say's "lets go to Tony's yard, lol.  I've seen so much snow down here in the spring, I'm beginning to think it's normal.  Why else would I tell metal man he has a good chance to see snow before the end of summer Just got to get the tracks down into Fla. then let the blocking do it's thing.  YOu know this anomalous heat of the last few winters will break big someday...might be this month.  I know the rains came back to Villa  Tonito this winter.  I don't care when winter cold and ip/sn comes back, just as long as it comes back soon.  I'd love to see 30's in June.  That's another on my weather bucket list   T

[tarheelwx]

Anybody got snowfall maps for the 12z euro for 3/21-22?

TW

[John1122]

GFS climbed on board with two potential snow systems for Tennessee and North Carolina.

 

Clown maps show 2-4 inches across most of Tennessee and Western NC, and 1-2 across a large area of the rest of NC.

 

Then 36 hours or so after that ends, another system comes through with another 1-2 inches for East Tennessee and most of NC north of 40.

[BullCityWx]

Looks like 0z Euro has another snow event. Perfect spring timing as depicted tonight.

[BullCityWx]

Wow, impressive event unfolding on the extracted data.

[BullCityWx]

If I had to guess, I'd guess 6"+ this run for most of the southern piedmont of NC. There's a bit less north and south of this.

[superjames1992]

If I had to guess, I'd guess 6"+ this run for most of the southern piedmont of NC. There's a bit less north and south of this.

 

Wow!

[BullCityWx]

Looks like IPJ is the QPF winner with .91(would be close to all snow)

[BullCityWx]

Other cities in the region:

Atlanta: all rain. Not close.

Asheville: .73 all snow

Charlotte: .84 all snow

Chattanooga: .79 and bounces around between snow and rain.

Columbia: VERY close to snow but a smidge too warm

Florence: .8 snow before changing to rn

GSP: .72 probably 80% snow

Greensboro: all rain due to lack of precip

Raleigh: probably starts as rain, ends as snow

[John1122]

How about Knoxville/Tri/Crossville? 

Other cities in the region:

Atlanta: all rain. Not close.
Asheville: .73 all snow
Charlotte: .84 all snow
Chattanooga: .79 and bounces around between snow and rain.
Columbia: VERY close to snow but a smidge too warm
Florence: .8 snow before changing to rn
GSP: .72 probably 80% snow
Greensboro: all rain due to lack of precip
Raleigh: probably starts as rain, ends as snow

[superjames1992]

The GGEM looks similar to the Euro.  In fact, it shows two potential storms in three days.  Not sure about temperatures, but the setup looks nice.  It's still way too early to worry about specifics, anyways.

First:



Second:

[norcarolinian]

Other cities in the region:

Atlanta: all rain. Not close.

Asheville: .73 all snow

Charlotte: .84 all snow

Chattanooga: .79 and bounces around between snow and rain.

Columbia: VERY close to snow but a smidge too warm

Florence: .8 snow before changing to rn

GSP: .72 probably 80% snow

Greensboro: all rain due to lack of precip

Raleigh: probably starts as rain, ends as snow

I like it ... it will trend north .. GSO will be in the bullseye i can feel it

[POWERSTROKE]

Hard to believe after today's 75. But anything possible in March

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

  If it were only a month ago...I would be a little squeamish forecasting any snow outside of higher elevations at this point. It is certainly the most interesting look since Jan 2011, tho...I really wanted to start thinking about lake weather too...guess we get one more ride this week.

 

 

 

Was this an attempt to troll the board?

 

It seems you have a history of trolling since you've previously only selectively posted your Euro weekly info when those charts projected warm instead of cold in the middle of winter.  I know this from casually reading this board since '10 and I'm positive I recall only warm ECMWF weekly posts from Mr. Bob.  Delta has noticed the same.

 

Yet, now you wait until mid-March to jump on a setup and compare it to the last widespread 6-10" of snow that SC & NC saw

 

I don't mean to cause a rift, but I call it like I see it... this board wasn't meant to be a place for mind games or to lure false hope to those without Met tags

[BullCityWx]

Was this an attempt to troll the board?

It seems you have a history of trolling since you've previously only selectively posted your Euro weekly info when those charts projected warm instead of cold in the middle of winter. I know this from casually reading this board since '10 and I'm positive I recall only warm ECMWF weekly posts from Mr. Bob. Delta has noticed the same.

Yet, now you wait until mid-March to jump on a setup and compare it to the last widespread 6-10" of snow that SC & NC saw

I don't mean to cause a rift, but I call it like I see it... this board wasn't meant to be a place for mind games or to lure false hope to those without Met tags

I've been posting with him for a decade. He is no troll.