March Pattern and Discussion

[metalicwx366]

My next 10 days have sun and temps in the 80s or upper 70s. Only exception is the 34 forecast for tomorrow night and 32 the next night. So much for the -Nao +PNA and -Ao and blocking.

[Bevo]

My next 10 days have sun and temps in the 80s or upper 70s. Only exception is the 34 forecast for tomorrow night and 32 the next night. So much for the -Nao +PNA and -Ao and blocking.

 

Even if you are right (I don't care one way or another at this point), I'm still confident that Waycross is irrelevant in a conversation about -NAO, +PNA, etc...

[metalicwx366]

Even if you are right (I don't care one way or another at this point), I'm still confident that Waycross is irrelevant in a conversation about -NAO, +PNA, etc...

Ok let me name a city in NC then. Charlotte was 72 deg today( warmer than here) and after this two days of cold temps go above average again. Snowcover on a rapid decrease across the N also. Storm next week there is absolutely no consistency but it will be too far N to give the SE(NC) some snow/graupel.

[Bevo]

Ok let me name a city in NC then. Charlotte was 72 deg today( warmer than here) and after this two days of cold temps go above average again. Snowcover on a rapid decrease across the N also. Storm next week there is absolutely no consistency but it will be too far N to give the SE(NC) some snow/graupel.

 

Is anyone outside elevation even considering snow/sleet/anything at all?  I really don't think so.  As far as "above normal" temps - well...they haven't panned out for me since the summer, but I can only speak for myself.  Again, outside elevation, I'm wondering who is genuinely looking for blocking, etc in the first place.

 

If NOAA is correct and we are on the verge of entering a neutral Nino, I expect it to be warmer as we go forward anyway.  Might as well get a head start.

[franklin NCwx]

Ok let me name a city in NC then. Charlotte was 72 deg today( warmer than here) and after this two days of cold temps go above average again. Snowcover on a rapid decrease across the N also. Storm next week there is absolutely no consistency but it will be too far N to give the SE(NC) some snow/graupel.

currently in the 20's here. Will only make it to mid 40's today tops with full March sun. Looks like flurries/snow showers for tomorrow night.

[Mr Bob]

 

ah yes, the Euro Weeklies... those pillars of forecasting stability

 

what a joke those things have been this winter

 

I thought most on this board had come to a general agreement that long-range forecasting is nearly useless, especially in a fast-paced flow like the one we have been stick in all winter long

They have their use as does long range forecasting...

[franklin NCwx]

The " Fishel" cold snap just won't end. I think when Fishel comes out and says " I don't see any cold, and the private forecasters calling for cold weather should be investigated". Then it is time to bundle up. Or better yet! It's a " send Lawyers, Guns and Money pattern"! I think from now on we should toss the weeklies and go with cold when Fishel says it's not coming.

[Stovepipe]

The " Fishel" cold snap just won't end. I think when Fishel comes out and says " I don't see any cold, and the private forecasters calling for cold weather should be investigated". Then it is time to bundle up. Or better yet! It's a " send Lawyers, Guns and Money pattern"! I think from now on we should toss the weeklies and go with cold when Fishel says it's not coming.

 

 

Meanwhile...

 

 

L O L

[Lookout]

It seems like for some reason, people enjoy making the argument that if someone likes severe/extreme weather, they automatically wish death and destruction on people. That's wrong and it's also disingenuous.

People die and damage occurs in many different weather scenarios other than the popular Cat 5 hurricanes or EF5 tornadoes that are so popularly trotted out (how about Cat 1s or EF1s?). Do you wish for heavy snow? Do you wish for heavy rain? Do you wish for cold? Heat? They all cause damage and destruction and injury and death. Sure, it would be awesome to see a Cat 5 cane or an EF5 tornado hit where nobody is. Sure it would be nice to have a blizzard over your house without the risk of destruction of property or injury or death. But that's not the way it works is it?

Most weather enthusiasts like extreme weather. Most of those folks don't want to see peoples' lives get destroyed. I think you can be interested in extreme weather without being morally compromised. If one disagrees, then one should rethink their desire for the next big arctic outbreak or widespread winter storm in order to avoid the hypocrisy that comes with the finger pointing at others.

On the other hand, if one's desire is for a catastrophic event to befall your fellow man, then that is just sick.

Good post. Unless it's sunny and mild, all other kinds of weather kill people...but actually even bright sun can cause wrecks and cause death and injuries.

 

But to show the absurdity even more, For example, you don't even have to have heavy snow or rain to cause injuries and death...just light rain and snow can make roads slick....  then you have wrecks and people die. Or how about gusty or high winds after a simple cold front? Like the guy killed by a tree recently going down the road in atlanta?  So if one or a few people die from hardly what people would call "severe weather", is that somehow better than other weather events? I mean are those lives less significant? Don't you think the family and friends of those killed don't feel just as bad as those in a big storm?

 

I know the argument is "well more people die in a hurricane or large tornadoes, etc" but if you add up all the life lost just through minor weather events caused by things like wrecks, heat deaths, cold deaths, etc, I'm pretty sure  it far and away out numbers deaths by major ones. Now the damage and loss of life  might not be the same all at once vs say a major hurricane or tornado but many will see something like katrina, where so many die at once...that means it's worse than all the others added up throughout the year because mentally it's a lot easier to think so when you see so many die at once and so much damage...while all the other deaths and damage is stretched out over time.

 

Fact is any life lost through any weather  is bad but it happens, even though none of us want to see it.  So it is really hypocritical, illogical and frankly wrong for people to get upset about thinking some folks wishing for one kind of weather are "immoral"..yet ignoring the countless deaths by other events. In fact, by the logic presented by such an argument, we are all immoral bastards since we follow any kind of weather and hoping for one type of weather or another.

 

The bottom line is this, if you love weather, no matter what kind or how severe...it all has consequences and they all will cause death or injury. And the fact is whether we wish or even hope against certain weather events, it will have no effect whatsoever. It's going to happen (or not happen) one way or the other. The real fact of the matter is people enjoy the power of nature and the weather..not seeing people's lives being destroyed.

 

I mean c'mon folks. If you are on this board and a fan of weather, you should know and understand this.

[Bevo]

ah yes, the Euro Weeklies... those pillars of forecasting stability

 

what a joke those things have been this winter

 

I thought most on this board had come to a general agreement that long-range forecasting is nearly useless, especially in a fast-paced flow like the one we have been stick in all winter long

 

Unfortunately, until people are able to accept that the Euro (and everything it brings with it - weeklies, etc) may not actually be "Der König" (look it up), this will continue to be an argument.  I cannot understand why the fast flow isn't getting more due credit for effing up our winter and our forecast models, weeklies, etc...

[Lookout]

The weather here today is miserable. And looks like early next week could be dreary again. So tired of this so-called winter with nothing but cool rainy days to show for it. Just warm up already and stay nice and maybe have some severe weather to track for a little excitement.

That's the way I see it. No matter what the euro weeklies show, unless a miracle happens that causes a freak snowfall (outside the mountains..which of course is highly unlikely at this point)...all that cold weather those euro weeklies now or in the future might show (if they are even right) just  means cool and and/or cool rainy weather outside the mountains.  This isn't Dec, Jan or feb. You are talking about mid march to mid april...so huge negative departures this time of year only means annoying cold, often accompanied by windy weather which makes it even worse. (I hate cool and windy sunny days the most this time of year in fact)

 

Who the hell wants cool weather now? It's meaningless and  Especially if all it ends up meaning is windy cool days and temps in the 40s and 50s and lows in the upper 20s and 30s...and later lows in the 30s or low 40s. I mean just wow

 

Again, unless something truly freaky happens, winter is over outside the mountains and every day that passes the odds of any snow or something goes down even more. I'd much rather it just warms up and we don't have annoying cool days..whether they are cool rainy or sunny days.

[Bevo]

Good post. Unless it's sunny and mild, all other kinds of weather kill people...but actually even bright sun can cause wrecks and cause death and injuries.

 

But to show the absurdity even more, For example, you don't even have to have heavy snow or rain to cause injuries and death...just light rain and snow can make roads slick....  then you have wrecks and people die. Or how about gusty or high winds after a simple cold front? Like the guy killed by a tree recently going down the road in atlanta?  So if one or a few people die from hardly what people would call "severe weather", is that somehow better than other weather events? I mean are those lives less significant? Don't you think the family and friends of those killed don't feel just as bad as those in a big storm?

 

I know the argument is "well more people die in a hurricane or large tornadoes, etc" but if you add up all the life lost just through minor weather events caused by things like wrecks, heat deaths, cold deaths, etc, I'm pretty sure  it far and away out numbers deaths by major ones. Now the damage and loss of life  might not be the same all at once vs say a major hurricane or tornado but many will see something like katrina, where so many die at once...that means it's worse than all the others added up throughout the year because mentally it's a lot easier to think so when you see so many die at once and so much damage...while all the other deaths and damage is stretched out over time.

 

Fact is any life lost through any weather  is bad but it happens, even though none of us want to see it.  So it is really hypocritical, illogical and frankly wrong for people to get upset about thinking some folks wishing for one kind of weather are "immoral"..yet ignoring the countless deaths by other events. In fact, by the logic presented by such an argument, we are all immoral bastards since we follow any kind of weather and hoping for one type of weather or another.

 

The bottom line is this, if you love weather, no matter what kind or how severe...it all has consequences and they all will cause death or injury. And the fact is whether we wish or even hope against certain weather events, it will have no effect whatsoever. It's going to happen (or not happen) one way or the other. The real fact of the matter is people enjoy the power of nature and the weather..not seeing people's lives being destroyed.

 

I mean c'mon folks. If you are on this board and a fan of weather, you should know and understand this.

 

I'm not sure anyone is arguing this - at least not me.  This all started under the presumption that we ALL were ready and looking forward to severe weather.  Some of us do not "look forward to it".  That is all.  There's no question as to whether or not it will happen.  And yes - all weather types create unsafe circumstances, but the odds of calamity obviously rise during severe weather. 

 

Personally, it's not in my best interest for severe weather to hit my back yard, as I have much more vested between April and September (gardens, wind damage to crops/buildings, kids always outside, etc.) than I do during the cold months.  My specific location reels from cells traveling directly SSE from the foothills that impale us with hail and wind every year - to the point in which I have to literally plan our garden around it (location, which way to plant rows, etc).  But I certainly don't believe I can control what happens.  I just don't look forward to it.

[calculus1]

Unfortunately, until people are able to accept that the Euro (and everything it brings with it - weeklies, etc) may not actually be "Der König" (look it up), this will continue to be an argument.  I cannot understand why the fast flow isn't getting more due credit for effing up our winter and our forecast models, weeklies, etc...

 

Blimey!!

 

Good sir, you abandoned the King's English and went for the Kaiser's German!

[Bevo]

Blimey!!

 

Good sir, you abandoned the King's English and went for the Kaiser's German!

 

Ha! Gotta shake it up sometimes - keeps people from becoming complacent and robotic. 

[Brick Tamland]

This is from WRAL on facebook. This sure looks like fun. I mean, it's only a 20 to 30 degree difference in the temp.

 

 

The potential presence of a frontal boundary with a sharp north-south temperature gradient through the latter half of the weekend into early next week is still making for a tricky forecast as we head into Sunday and Monday. Here are the warmest and coolest high temperatures forecast for the Raleigh area by the European Model Ensemble system, in which the European model is run 51 times with slight ...variations to the starting conditions and in some cases using different treatments of the physics involved. From today through Saturday, the difference in the warmest and coolest outcomes isn't all that large, but it really spreads out after that. By Monday, at least one of those model runs only gets us to 42 degrees in the afternoon, while at least one other gets us all the way to 75! The average of those 51 runs gives a high of 67 on Sunday and 65 Monday. The American model for the same time frame leans a little cooler for Sunday, favoring upper 50s to low 60s but also shows a large range of possible highs...

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Unfortunately, until people are able to accept that the Euro (and everything it brings with it - weeklies, etc) may not actually be "Der König" (look it up), this will continue to be an argument. I cannot understand why the fast flow isn't getting more due credit for effing up our winter and our forecast models, weeklies, etc...

There was a man driving home from work (driving down the same road I drive home on) and a big Pine tree fell on his car and killed him. There was no weather event that day...not even strong winds. That was just some bad luck right there. I mean, if a tree happens to fall on your car while you're driving at speed, I guess it's just your time, and that's really all you can say about it.

[Cold Rain]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing this - at least not me. This all started under the presumption that we ALL were ready and looking forward to severe weather. Some of us do not "look forward to it". That is all. There's no question as to whether or not it will happen. And yes - all weather types create unsafe circumstances, but the odds of calamity obviously rise during severe weather.

Personally, it's not in my best interest for severe weather to hit my back yard, as I have much more vested between April and September (gardens, wind damage to crops/buildings, kids always outside, etc.) than I do during the cold months. My specific location reels from cells traveling directly SSE from the foothills that impale us with hail and wind every year - to the point in which I have to literally plan our garden around it (location, which way to plant rows, etc). But I certainly don't believe I can control what happens. I just don't look forward to it.

I'm kinda torn on Severe imby. I love wind, hail, continuous lightening and heavy rain. But at the same time, I don't want any damage to occur to my house, yard, cars or trampoline (my son loves that thing). I don't go chasing around here either. I certainly don't wish for a tornado. Anyway, I'm torn on it....

[Cold Rain]

My next 10 days have sun and temps in the 80s or upper 70s. Only exception is the 34 forecast for tomorrow night and 32 the next night. So much for the -Nao +PNA and -Ao and blocking.

The big element here that I think you're getting wrong is the +PNA. LR modeling doesn't show a +PNA...it's more troughy in the west, so even with -AO/-NAO, we're still warm.

Again, this goes back to looking at more (or quoting more) than the sign in front of an index. Orientation, placement, strength, its presence in the existence of other (possibly overwhelming) variables/indexes, etc. Of the index(s) you're looking at or talking about matters a great deal more than the sign in front of it, IMO.

[metalicwx366]

The big element here that I think you're getting wrong is the +PNA. LR modeling doesn't show a +PNA...it's more troughy in the west, so even with -AO/-NAO, we're still warm.

Again, this goes back to looking at more (or quoting more) than the sign in front of an index. Orientation, placement, strength, its presence in the existence of other (possibly overwhelming) variables/indexes, etc. Of the index(s) you're looking at or talking about matters a great deal more than the sign in front of it, IMO.

Yeah I know. I checked the teleconnections last night and saw it was neutral going slightly negative. The AO is going extremely negative though.

[FallsLake]

It's not as varied as the graph shows. Basically the models are not sure how far south the cold front will get. If your north of the front it will be closer to the low end and if your south it will be closer to the high end. Of course some who are right on the front (that's possible wavering) will have temps that fall somewhere in the middle.  

This is from WRAL on facebook. This sure looks like fun. I mean, it's only a 20 to 30 degree difference in the temp.

 

 

 

[metalicwx366]

Good post. Unless it's sunny and mild, all other kinds of weather kill people...but actually even bright sun can cause wrecks and cause death and injuries.

But to show the absurdity even more, For example, you don't even have to have heavy snow or rain to cause injuries and death...just light rain and snow can make roads slick.... then you have wrecks and people die. Or how about gusty or high winds after a simple cold front? Like the guy killed by a tree recently going down the road in atlanta? So if one or a few people die from hardly what people would call "severe weather", is that somehow better than other weather events? I mean are those lives less significant? Don't you think the family and friends of those killed don't feel just as bad as those in a big storm?

I know the argument is "well more people die in a hurricane or large tornadoes, etc" but if you add up all the life lost just through minor weather events caused by things like wrecks, heat deaths, cold deaths, etc, I'm pretty sure it far and away out numbers deaths by major ones. Now the damage and loss of life might not be the same all at once vs say a major hurricane or tornado but many will see something like katrina, where so many die at once...that means it's worse than all the others added up throughout the year because mentally it's a lot easier to think so when you see so many die at once and so much damage...while all the other deaths and damage is stretched out over time.

Fact is any life lost through any weather is bad but it happens, even though none of us want to see it. So it is really hypocritical, illogical and frankly wrong for people to get upset about thinking some folks wishing for one kind of weather are "immoral"..yet ignoring the countless deaths by other events. In fact, by the logic presented by such an argument, we are all immoral bastards since we follow any kind of weather and hoping for one type of weather or another.

The bottom line is this, if you love weather, no matter what kind or how severe...it all has consequences and they all will cause death or injury. And the fact is whether we wish or even hope against certain weather events, it will have no effect whatsoever. It's going to happen (or not happen) one way or the other. The real fact of the matter is people enjoy the power of nature and the weather..not seeing people's lives being destroyed.

I mean c'mon folks. If you are on this board and a fan of weather, you should know and understand this.

This times a billion. I like severe wind. That's really all. Anything that has severe wind is what I like. I have never actually seen damage in person before. Nothing in nature has ever damaged my property. Power outages don't count. Just lucky. That derecho in Chicago in June 2006 I think. Hell yeah those were the times. It can be any worse than folks wanting another superstorm loo. It's life and we have to deal with it. The lack of preparation causes death and injuries. Hell we were on a record streak for most days without a tornado death. Even that EF4 tornado had no death.

[GaWx]

Who the hell wants cool weather now? It's meaningless and Especially if all it ends up meaning is windy cool days and temps in the 40s and 50s and lows in the upper 20s and 30s...and later lows in the 30s or low 40s. I mean just wow

Again, unless something truly freaky happens, winter is over outside the mountains and every day that passes the odds of any snow or something goes down even more. I'd much rather it just warms up and we don't have annoying cool days..whether they are cool rainy or sunny days.

1) I do. Not every reader only enjoys below normal temp.'s when there's wintry precip. I love it when it is cold at the Masters. Late cold snaps are enjoyable. Also, I think that early heat and humidity is annoying rather than late cold because we normally get seemingly endless heat and humidity late spring to early fall.

2) You'd be annoyed by cool, rainy? That's surprising considering you seem to always like it raining.

[calculus1]

1) I do. Not every reader only enjoys below normal temp.'s when there's wintry precip. I love it when it is cold at the Masters. Late cold snaps are enjoyable. Also, I think that early heat and humidity is annoying rather than late cold because we normally get seemingly endless heat and humidity late spring to early fall.

2) You'd be annoyed by cool, rainy? That's surprising considering you seem to always like it raining.

 

I'm with you, Larry!!  It could stay cool and rainy all spring, in my book.  Make it so...

[Bevo]

1) I do. Not every reader only enjoys below normal temp.'s when there's wintry precip. I love it when it is cold at the Masters. Late cold snaps are enjoyable. Also, I think that early heat and humidity is annoying rather than late cold because we normally get seemingly endless heat and humidity late spring to early fall.

2) You'd be annoyed by cool, rainy? That's surprising considering you seem to always like it raining.

 

Yes brother - give me cool and rainy during the months of July and August please.  It would be quite nice to have occasional days with rain and low 70's or high 60's during the summer.

[Teru Teru Bozu]

I'm kinda torn on Severe imby. I love wind, hail, continuous lightening and heavy rain. But at the same time, I don't want any damage to occur to my house, yard, cars or trampoline (my son loves that thing). I don't go chasing around here either. I certainly don't wish for a tornado. Anyway, I'm torn on it....

It's always going to be a double-edged sword WRT severe weather; on one hand, I can't help but be a *little* excited when we have a severe outbreak around here, just because I find severe storms so interesting to forecast and track, and I have neither the time nor money to head for the Plains/Deep South to chase. So the (relatively) rare opportunities to see severe storms up close IMBY are fun in some ways.

OTOH, it is very heart-wrenching to see an event unfold like April 16, 2011 where places and people that you know are in serious danger. That record-setting 30 tornado outbreak came at a tremendous price. And I still shudder to think what a Tuscaloosa or Joplin-strength tornado would have done on the same track as the Raleigh-Sanford storm. Do I ever want to see a repeat of that outbreak? Not particularly. But the opportunity to see it unfold in the first place was fascinating for me, even as it was quite scary as well.

I guess "look forward to" is the wrong way to describe my feelings towards severe weather. I know it's coming, and when it does I will certainly enjoy the chance to study it. It's too bad that we can't recreate multiple-tornado-producing supercells in a completely contained environment where they can be observed with no risk to life or property. We have to take what nature gives us, and hope that the destruction is minimal.

[tonysc]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing this - at least not me.  This all started under the presumption that we ALL were ready and looking forward to severe weather.  Some of us do not "look forward to it".  That is all.  There's no question as to whether or not it will happen.  And yes - all weather types create unsafe circumstances, but the odds of calamity obviously rise during severe weather. 

 

Personally, it's not in my best interest for severe weather to hit my back yard, as I have much more vested between April and September (gardens, wind damage to crops/buildings, kids always outside, etc.) than I do during the cold months.  My specific location reels from cells traveling directly SSE from the foothills that impale us with hail and wind every year - to the point in which I have to literally plan our garden around it (location, which way to plant rows, etc).  But I certainly don't believe I can control what happens.  I just don't look forward to it.

 

Yeah if some people like severe weather then that's their business. I personally don't look forward to severe weather but I do love thunderstorms, but one things for certain, no matter how much we wish for any particular kind of weather, it's gonna do what it's gonna do. So enjoy the weather cause it's the only weather we got......right?

[Bevo]

It's always going to be a double-edged sword WRT severe weather; on one hand, I can't help but be a *little* excited when we have a severe outbreak around here, just because I find severe storms so interesting to forecast and track, and I have neither the time nor money to head for the Plains/Deep South to chase. So the (relatively) rare opportunities to see severe storms up close IMBY are fun in some ways. OTOH, it is very heart-wrenching to see an event unfold like April 16, 2011 where places and people that you know are in serious danger. That record-setting 30 tornado outbreak came at a tremendous price. And I still shudder to think what a Tuscaloosa or Joplin-strength tornado would have done on the same track as the Raleigh-Sanford storm. Do I ever want to see a repeat of that outbreak? Not particularly. But the opportunity to see it unfold in the first place was fascinating for me, even as it was quite scary as well. I guess "look forward to" is the wrong way to describe my feelings towards severe weather. I know it's coming, and when it does I will certainly enjoy the chance to study it. It's too bad that we can't recreate multiple-tornado-producing supercells in a completely contained environment where they can be observed with no risk to life or property. We have to take what nature gives us, and hope that the destruction is minimal.

 

Was the April 27th outbreak - with like 320 something confirmed (with one that I consider to essentially be a tri-state tornado - Miss, Alabama and Georgia ) in 2011?

[Bevo]

Yeah if some people like severe weather then that's their business. I personally don't look forward to severe weather but I do love thunderstorms, but one things for certain, no matter how much we wish for any particular kind of weather, it's gonna do what it's gonna do. So enjoy the weather cause it's the only weather we got......right?

 

This is true - and all of us here obviously enjoy it to some degree.  It is one of the few remaining parts of life that holds mystery.  Therein lies the challenge in my opinion.

[FallsLake]

12z GFS is showing a very cool/cold look in the extended. Too bad this is not January, we would be looking at at least a couple wintery threats. Hour 336; which is out in lala land but still valuable in since of the overall discussion of if it will be cooler or warmer than normal.

 

 

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Was the April 27th outbreak - with like 320 something confirmed (with one that I consider to essentially be a tri-state tornado - Miss, Alabama and Georgia ) in 2011?

Yes. I remember thinking that the April 16th outbreak (30 tornadoes in NC on one day? Holy cow) was going to be the big tornado event of the year. Then Super Outbreak 2.0 and Joplin happened...

Oh, and between the NC outbreak and the Deep South outbreak there was also that EF4 tornado in St. Louis that hit the airport and damaged part of the terminal. That was also crazy.