Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Someone at the other board said Euro control run crushes NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 As a reminder take a look at what the models were showing for the boxing day storm 8 days out... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4066-christmas-storm/?p=125346 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Someone at the other board said Euro control run crushes NC. Yep, reforms off ILM and rapidly deepens and doesn't hardly move, probably a foot of snow for the bulk of NC. It than becomes a historicly strong storm and drifts just a smidge to far NE for the MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yep, reforms off ILM and rapidly deepens and doesn't hardly move, probably a foot of snow for the bulk of NC. It than becomes a historicly strong storm and drifts just a smidge to far NE for the MA and NE. Does that act more like the Jan 2000 system or the Christmas 2010 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What is the Euro control run and where does one find it? Is that just another name for the ensembles? Yep, reforms off ILM and rapidly deepens and doesn't hardly move, probably a foot of snow for the bulk of NC. It than becomes a historicly strong storm and drifts just a smidge to far NE for the MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Does that act more like the Jan 2000 system or the Christmas 2010 system? Neither really, because it hits the block and won't go NE, both the 2000/2010 crawled up the coast and gave the entire east coast a huge winter storm. But this does remind me of the boxing day storm, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What is the Euro control run and where does one find it? Is that just another name for the ensembles? It's on AccuW, it's just the control run of the Euro Ensembles, just one of the members. The GFS has a control run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What is the Euro control run and where does one find it? Is that just another name for the ensembles? Skip from what I understand it takes the ENS member closest to the ENS ...at least from what I can understand...but yes it pretty much crushes Charlotte especially on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Soundings for the SC Upstate on Saturday still reflect a light snow event. I don't want to be the only one seeing snow this winter, but if I must... ****EDIT****** I just read the following from Fox Carolina: "I looked at bufkit soundings for the 12z GFS... this helps me get an idea of snow totals, and how the different layers of the atmosphere are looking. At this point, a dusting looks like a good bet, while some heavier snow showers could set up bringing localized amounts up to an inch. It doesn't look as heavy as a couple Saturdays ago. This could easily be a day when we don't get any accumulation, but just see some flakes flying off and on through the day. With such light amounts of moisture, and the direction from which it is coming (northwest), I'm inclined to think that it won't be a big deal at all for us. European model shows a period of brief moderate snow showers late day on Saturday, while GFS, Nam and Canadian keep it very modest." This seems to also support the GSP discussion regarding 3/2 (Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GSP discussion: didnt paste the first part of it..since it was so long..weekend part and next week are below. Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/... as of 200 PM Wednesday...northwest flow snow event will continue into the short term...occasionally augmented by synoptic scale support in the form of short waves migrating over the area...namely late Thursday night and again Saturday. When this augmentation does not occur...the northwest flow setup is quite underwhelming...as the flow is weak more often than not...and thermal profiles are not especially conducive to significant accums. As such...an advisory level event will be possible along the tenn border with the approach of the wave Thursday night...with additional flurries or light snow showers likely Friday and Friday night. As for the Piedmont/fhills...there should be plenty of diurnal cumulus...especially over NC...which will combine with unseasonably low thickness values to produce maxes around 10 degrees below climatology. Min temperatures will be around 5 degrees below climatology through the period. The most interesting aspect of the short term forecast is Saturday...when the short term models depict a series of short wave troughs carving out a deep long wave trough/upper low over the southeast...bringing an area of deep moisture over the region in association with a deformation zone. The models generate some convective precipitation beneath/near the cold core upper low over much of the area on Saturday. Partial thickness values favor snow across roughly the northwest half of the area...but are borderline for rain/snow across the southeast half...so the forecast will reflect chances for rain or snow showers across much of the Piedmont...with mostly snow elsewhere. Comparisons with the Piedmont snow shower event of Feb 16 are not unwarranted. However...profiles for the upcoming event are warmer...and it does not appear that we will have the extremely steep lapse rates through a deep layer that were seen during the middle-Feb event. Nevertheless...a few areas could see some accumulating snow...so we will begin mentioning this possibility in the severe weather potential statement. Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... as of 255 PM Wednesday...upper low slowly moves east of the area Sunday as short wave drops into the upper trough trailing the low. These features will bring a final round of snow showers to the area Sat night with some lingering northwest flow snow showers over the Tennessee border counties during the day Sunday. Cannot rule out some light accums outside of the mountains...but temperatures and thicknesses are relatively warm during the evening limiting the chance. For now...have and additional 1 to 2 inches over the Tennessee border counties. Short wave upper ridging builds over the area Monday then slides east Tuesday as the next storm system moves toward the area. At the surface...high pressure builds into the area Monday then slides east Tuesday as low pressure moves into the upper MS/lower Ohio River valleys. Lows about 5 degrees below normal Sat night fall to nearly 10 below normal Sun night. Highs sun about 15 degrees below normal rise to nearly 10 degrees below normal Monday. Although guidance agrees that a weather system will affect the area Wednesday...they disagree on location and timing. The GFS takes an upper low from the Illinois/in border southeast to Kentucky Tuesday night then southeast across the sav River Valley Wednesday. This low phases with another northern stream low over New England during this time. The European model (ecmwf) takes an upper low from near the MS/Ohio River Junction to southern Georgia Tuesday night...then off the Florida coast Wednesday. This low phases with another northern stream upper low over the Great Lakes by Tuesday night and remains in phase through the period. That said...the new ecwmf has trended toward the GFS in timing and is even faster as the system moves east. The new European model (ecmwf) also takes the surface low from the Midwest south of the County warning forecast area to the coast...while the GFS takes it southeast across the mountains to the central sav River Valley then EST to the coast. Temperatures and thicknesses suggest that precipitation would be mainly rain as the system moves into the area...possibly some snow at the highest elevations. Precipitation then changes to snow as cold air moves in behind the low across the mountains and I-40 corridor Tuesday night. Precipitation changes back to rain Wednesday as temperatures warm. That said...there are indications that precipitation could remain as snow across the mountains and I-40 corridor if in situ cad develops Wednesday. Right now... have lows about 5 degrees below normal Monday night rising a few degrees above normal Tuesday night. Highs about 5 degrees below normal Tuesday fall to 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Does that act more like the Jan 2000 system or the Christmas 2010 system? Brick, stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Euro control run. Come on Brick, even you should know better than posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Might not wanna post that from there Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Come on Brick, even you should know better than posting this. Just as plausable as any other model run lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Are we talking about this weekends's system, next week's or Hurricane Andrea? Talk about confusing. And you thought the models were a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Just as plausable as any other model run lately. I don't think the forum administrators take kindly to posting pay-site maps, Brick. You might want to remove it. With that being said, I'd like to cash out with the control run, from the sounds of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I don't think the forum administrators take kindly to posting pay-site maps, Brick. You might want to remove it. With that being said, I'd like to cash out with the control run, from the sounds of it. For what it's worth, the control run has been showing big dogs for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Kind of reminds me of Dec 2010, we need a perfectly timed phase. At this range the the Dec 2010 was similarly tracking the low further north too. Below are the heights from the Dec 2010 storm for Dec 26th. Everybody should take a look at that image and remember it the next time someone says that a ridge has to be along the west coast or just inland for us to get a winter storm. Weather is about so much more than one particular element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 By the way, that illegal control run image is the result I was describing (what I expected) out of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Everybody should take a look at that image and remember it the next time someone says that a ridge has to be along the west coast or just inland for us to get a winter storm. Weather is about so much more than one particular element. That was during a decently strong La Nina, too. You just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thanks -- never knew that. Regarding Brick's map -- looks like a miss for CLT west?? Skip from what I understand it takes the ENS member closest to the ENS ...at least from what I can understand...but yes it pretty much crushes Charlotte especially on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 anyone wanna take bets on how long that map stays up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What did the control run actually do? Was it a classic Miller A or the hybrid Miller Bish system the Euro op was showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 For what it's worth, the control run has been showing big dogs for several months now. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thanks -- never knew that. Regarding Brick's map -- looks like a miss for CLT west?? Why I wouldn't expect anything less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thanks -- never knew that. Regarding Brick's map -- looks like a miss for CLT west?? Brick posted the frame that was best for his backyard. It drops about .75 just west of CLT. Towards AVL there is a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Please don't post pay maps, they are copyrighted, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 anyone wanna take bets on how long that map stays up? Set the over/under at :30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Maybe we should all pray to the snow gods to fix the maps.. So Brick can rest easy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looks like the under was the right bet. Regarding the control, it supports the OP, generally, so that's good. Now, can we hold it for 8 more days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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